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Simpson Manufacturing Company, (SSD) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Lumber & Wood Production

Wait for pullback to $170.10. At $175.76 the A.R:R is 1.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $170.10 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (77.8%); Thin upside margin: 7.2%.

Simpson Manufacturing designs and manufactures structural connectors, fasteners, and concrete anchors for residential and commercial construction under the Simpson Strong-Tie brand, operating in North America, Europe, and Asia/Pacific. North America accounted for ~77.8% of net... Read more

$175.76+10.5% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#1 of 4 Lumber & Wood Production
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield4.64%
IncomeYield0.67%(5y avg 0.77%)Payout13.62%sustainable
Entry $170.10(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $159.60Target $189.49(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.2:1Setup A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$217.80+23.9%5 analysts
$189.49our TP
$175.76price
$217.80mean
$230

Wait for pullback to $170.10. At $175.76 the A.R:R is 1.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $170.10 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (77.8%); Thin upside margin: 7.2%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 68d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Simpson Manufacturing Company,

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.4 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (77.8%)
Thin upside margin: 7.2%
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.9
P/E (Fwd)18.1
Mkt Cap$7.3B
EV/EBITDA13.5
Profit Mgn14.9%
ROE18.1%
Rev Growth9.1%
Beta1.34
Dividend0.67%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.39bearish
IV35%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicNorth America78%
    10-K Item 1: 'the North America Segment accounting for approximately 77.8% of net sales for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.3<4.5A.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 68d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
33 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $176.39Resistance $199.75

Price Targets

$160
$170
$189
A.Upside+7.8%
A.R:R1.2:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Momentum score 1.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-27 (68d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SSD stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $170.10. At $175.76 the A.R:R is 1.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $170.10 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (77.8%); Thin upside margin: 7.2%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $189.49 (+7.8%), stop $159.60 (−10.1%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SSD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $189.49 (+10.5% upside). Target $189.49 (+7.8%), stop $159.60 (−10.1%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Stop-loss: $159.60.

What are the risks of investing in SSD?

Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (77.8%); Thin upside margin: 7.2%; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Is SSD overvalued or undervalued?

Simpson Manufacturing Company, trades at a P/E of 20.9 (forward 18.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about SSD?

9 analysts cover SSD with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $218.

What does Simpson Manufacturing Company, do?Simpson Manufacturing designs and manufactures structural connectors, fasteners, and concrete anchors for residential...

Simpson Manufacturing designs and manufactures structural connectors, fasteners, and concrete anchors for residential and commercial construction under the Simpson Strong-Tie brand, operating in North America, Europe, and Asia/Pacific. North America accounted for ~77.8% of net sales in 2025; international sales were ~$619.0M (~26.5%).

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