Boise Cascade, L.L.C. (BCC) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the BCC stock price target?

Take-profit $82.22 (+4.4% upside). Prior stop was $73.50.

Q: What are the risks of investing in BCC?

Concentration risk — Customer: BMD segment (Wood Products customer) (71.0%); Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0); Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0); Momentum score 2.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum.

Q: Is BCC overvalued or undervalued?

Boise Cascade, L.L.C. trades at a P/E of 22.4 (forward 14.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about BCC?

11 analysts cover BCC with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $95.

Range Bound setup

SellModerate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Basic Materials · Lumber & Wood Production

Earnings in 4 days (2026-05-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $78.73: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Boise Cascade is one of the largest U.S. wholesale distributors of building materials (BMD, $5.9B 2025 sales) and a manufacturer of engineered wood products and plywood (Wood Products, $1.6B). BMD sells to dealers and home improvement centers; 71% of Wood Products sales flow to... Read more

$78.73+4.4% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#2 of 4 Lumber & Wood Production

Stop $73.50Target $82.22(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.5:1

Analyst target$94.50+20.0%6 analysts

$82.22our TP

$78.73price

$94.50mean

$105

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Concentration risk — Customer: BMD segment (Wood Products customer) (71.0%)

Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.4

P/E (Fwd)14.4

Mkt Cap$2.8B

EV/EBITDA8.5

Profit Mgn2.1%

ROE6.3%

Rev Growth-6.8%

Beta1.20

Dividend1.10%

Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.11bearish

IV63%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHCustomerBMD segment (Wood Products customer)71%
10-K Item 1: 'Our BMD segment is our Wood Products segment's largest customer, representing approximately 71% of our Wood Products segment's overall sales in 2025'
MEDIUMCustomerBuilders FirstSource
10-K Item 1: 'Builders FirstSource and Home Depot being our largest customers'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value7.715%1.16

Quality3.115%0.46

Growth5.415%0.81

Momentum2.310%0.23

Sentiment6.510%0.65

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank4.110%0.41

Technical Setup5.75%0.29

Risk Profile6.25%0.31

Catalyst6.05%0.30

Overall (Σ contributions)5.11

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd

0.0

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Ma Position

5.0

Rsi

5.5

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin

0.0

Fcf Quality

0.0

Operating Margin

0.3

Net Margin

1.0

Roe

2.1

Roa

2.3

Moat

5.0

Piotroski F

7.8

Current Ratio

9.6

Earnings quality RED FLAG: -42% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9

GatesMomentum 2.3<4.5A.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

46 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $72.08Resistance $85.87

Price Targets

$74

$82

A.Upside+4.4%

A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)

! Momentum score 2.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! Reward/Risk 0.5:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

1/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-04 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is BCC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $78.73: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $73.50. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BCC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $82.22 (+4.4% upside). Prior stop was $73.50. Stop-loss: $73.50.

What are the risks of investing in BCC?

Concentration risk — Customer: BMD segment (Wood Products customer) (71.0%); Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0).

Is BCC overvalued or undervalued?

Boise Cascade, L.L.C. trades at a P/E of 22.4 (forward 14.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BCC?

11 analysts cover BCC with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $95.

What does Boise Cascade, L.L.C. do?Boise Cascade is one of the largest U.S. wholesale distributors of building materials (BMD, $5.9B 2025 sales) and a...