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WDCWestern Digital CorporationBuy Wait6.2·$543.30-9.20%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Western Digital has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an extraordinary average surprise of 104%, posted 46% revenue growth, and carries the highest quality fundamentals including an 86% ROE and wide economic moat, but the stock currently trades above its analyst price target with a negative asymmetry ratio.

Thesis pillars

  • High Quality Wide Moat 86 Pct RoeStable
  • Extraordinary Earnings Beat PerformanceStable
  • Price Above Analyst Target No UpsideStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Western Digital Corporation (WDC) Stock Analysis

Temporary headwind edge

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Technology · Computer Hardware

Wait for pullback to $461.67. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $543.30. Engine's entry $461.67 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

Western Digital develops and manufactures HDD storage devices for Cloud, Client, and Consumer markets, having spun off its Flash business as Sandisk Corporation in February 2025. Three customers accounted for 17%, 12%, and 10% of 2025 net revenue; 55% of revenue came from... Read more

$543.30+48.0% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#1 of 21 Computer Hardware
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.12%
IncomeYield0.11%(5y avg 3.23%)Payout2.69%sustainable
Entry $461.67(Ma50 Sticky)Stop $322.72Target $783.87(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$589.88+8.6%24 analysts
$783.87our TP
$543.30price
$589.88mean
$360
$1050

Wait for pullback to $461.67. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $543.30. Engine's entry $461.67 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.53, quality 7.7/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 26d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Western Digital Corporation

About Western Digital Corporation

Western Digital completed the separation of its Flash business into Sandisk Corporation on February 21, 2025, making it a pure-play HDD manufacturer with 40,000 employees across 24 countries. The company serves three end markets — Cloud, Client, and Consumer — and manufactures substantially all of its own recording heads and magnetic media in vertically integrated facilities across Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, and the U.S. Three customers represented 17%, 12%, and 10% of 2025 net revenue.

Western Digital's revenue model spans three end markets with distinct pricing dynamics. Cloud revenue is driven by hyperscale operators investing in data center capacity for AI workloads; the filing characterizes demand as largely dependent on hyperscale cloud customers' data center buildout plans and buying patterns, which have made HDD demand historically volatile. Client revenue comes from OEM relationships with desktop and notebook manufacturers; Consumer revenue flows through retail, warehouse clubs, and online retailers under the WD and Western Digital brands. The company holds approximately 4,500 active patents covering magnetic recording. Seagate Technology Holdings plc and Toshiba Electronic Devices & Storage Corporation are the primary HDD competitors named in the filing, while NAND flash suppliers compete increasingly in legacy lower-capacity market segments.

Show full overview

In 2025, three unnamed customers represented 17%, 12%, and 10% of net revenue — a combined share of 39%. The filing notes that for fiscal 2024 and 2023, no single customer accounted for 10% or more of net revenue, making the 2025 customer concentration a notable shift from prior periods. The company's business is subject to variability of sales tied to large cloud customers' data center buildout timelines, exposing revenue to demand cycles that may shift sharply when hyperscaler capex plans change.

See also: Technology · Computer Hardware

From Western Digital Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202626d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.73)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.3
P/E (Fwd)29.7
Mkt Cap$185.8B
EV/EBITDA46.9
Profit Mgn55.3%
ROE85.9%
Rev Growth45.5%
Beta2.20
Dividend0.11%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.07bearish
IV119%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.3
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 26d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $480.87Resistance $799.87

Price Targets

$323
$462
$784
A.Upside+44.3%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.6%
Max %1.1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.5% upside)
! News modifier capped: WAIT cannot upgrade to NOW via sentiment alone
! momentum at 3.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (26d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WDC stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $461.67. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $543.30. Engine's entry $461.67 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.53, quality 7.7/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $783.87 (+44.3%), stop $322.72 (−68.4%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WDC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $783.87 (+48.0% upside). Target $783.87 (+44.3%), stop $322.72 (−68.4%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Stop-loss: $322.72.

What are the risks of investing in WDC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

Is WDC overvalued or undervalued?

Western Digital Corporation trades at a P/E of 32.3 (forward 29.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about WDC?

29 analysts cover WDC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $590.

What does Western Digital Corporation do?Western Digital develops and manufactures HDD storage devices for Cloud, Client, and Consumer markets, having spun off...

Western Digital develops and manufactures HDD storage devices for Cloud, Client, and Consumer markets, having spun off its Flash business as Sandisk Corporation in February 2025. Three customers accounted for 17%, 12%, and 10% of 2025 net revenue; 55% of revenue came from international markets, with 40,000 employees across 24 countries.

Related stocks: ANET (Arista Networks, Inc.) · STX (Seagate Technology Holdings PLC) · DELL (Dell Technologies Inc.) · SNDK (Sandisk Corporation) · HPQ (HP Inc.)
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