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Western Digital Corporation (WDC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Technology · Computer Hardware

Wait for pullback to $390.77. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $462.03. Engine's entry $390.77 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: international sales (55.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Western Digital is a leading HDD developer, manufacturer, and provider focused on Cloud, Client, and Consumer storage markets, following its February 2025 separation of the Flash business (Sandisk) into an independent company. With ~40,000 employees and manufacturing... Read more

$462.03+17.3% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#1 of 14 Computer Hardware
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.32%
IncomeYield0.13%(5y avg 3.23%)Payout2.69%sustainable
Entry $390.77(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $325.54Target $514.65(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1Setup A.R:R 2.5:1
Analyst target$507.61+9.9%23 analysts
$514.65our TP
$462.03price
$507.61mean
$360
$660

Wait for pullback to $390.77. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $462.03. Engine's entry $390.77 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: international sales (55.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.41, quality 7.7/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val4.5Qual7.7Grw10.0Mom3.1Sent6.9Ins5.0Peer4.9Tech5.3Risk4.46.2OVERALL

Recent Developments — Western Digital Corporation

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.7 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: international sales (55.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.2
P/E (Fwd)26.2
Mkt Cap$157.1B
EV/EBITDA39.6
Profit Mgn55.3%
ROE85.9%
Rev Growth45.5%
Beta2.16
Dividend0.13%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.83neutral
IV92%elevated
Max Pain$260-43.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomertop-3 customers
    10-K Item 1: 'For 2025, three customers accounted for 17%, 12%, and 10%, respectively, of our net revenue.'
  • HIGHGeographicinternational sales55%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our international sales...represented 55%, 58% and 57% of our net revenue for 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $374.02Resistance $525.15

Price Targets

$326
$391
$515
A.Upside+11.4%
A.R:R-0.1:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.1% upside)
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WDC stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $390.77. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $462.03. Engine's entry $390.77 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: international sales (55.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.41, quality 7.7/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $514.65 (+11.4%), stop $325.54 (−41.9%), Setup A.R:R 2.5:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WDC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $514.65 (+17.3% upside). Target $514.65 (+11.4%), stop $325.54 (−41.9%), Setup A.R:R 2.5:1. Stop-loss: $325.54.

What are the risks of investing in WDC?

Concentration risk — Geographic: international sales (55.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Is WDC overvalued or undervalued?

Western Digital Corporation trades at a P/E of 27.2 (forward 26.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about WDC?

30 analysts cover WDC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $508.

What does Western Digital Corporation do?Western Digital is a leading HDD developer, manufacturer, and provider focused on Cloud, Client, and Consumer storage...

Western Digital is a leading HDD developer, manufacturer, and provider focused on Cloud, Client, and Consumer storage markets, following its February 2025 separation of the Flash business (Sandisk) into an independent company. With ~40,000 employees and manufacturing concentrated in Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines, three customers accounted for 17%, 12%, and 10% of 2025 net revenue.

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