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STXSeagate Technology Holdings PLCSell6.1·$1039.03+1.99%
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Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Computer Hardware

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1039.03 — A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers.

Seagate Technology Holdings designs and manufactures hard disk drives, solid-state drives, and storage subsystems primarily for nearline cloud and enterprise mass capacity storage, with manufacturing concentrated in China and Thailand. The company sells to OEM customers... Read more

$1039.03+4.2% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#3 of 14 Computer Hardware
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield0.70%
IncomeYield0.29%(5y avg 3.02%)Payout27.70%sustainable
Stop $959.15Target $1075.06(resistance)A.R:R -1.5:1
Analyst target$885.91-14.7%22 analysts
$1075.06our TP
$1039.03price
$885.91mean
$545
$1150

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1039.03 — A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 42d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Seagate Technology Holdings PLC

About Seagate Technology Holdings PLC

Seagate Technology Holdings manufactures hard disk drives under a vertically integrated model — internally fabricating most read/write heads and recording media — with disk drive assembly concentrated primarily at facilities in China and Thailand and subassembly operations across Malaysia, Northern Ireland, Singapore, and the United States. The company's Mozaic platform deploys heat-assisted magnetic recording (HAMR) technology, enabling HDDs shipping up to 35TB targeting nearline cloud, enterprise, VIA, and NAS markets.

Seagate sells HDDs, SSDs, and storage systems to OEM customers including large hyperscale data center companies and cloud service providers (CSPs) under master purchase agreements, as well as through distributors and retailers serving legacy and consumer markets. Mass capacity storage — nearline cloud, enterprise, VIA, and NAS — is the company's growth focus; legacy markets including consumer, client, and mission-critical applications continue to generate revenue but receive no significant incremental investment. Revenue is highly sensitive to customer inventory cycles: fiscal years 2023 and 2024 saw factory underutilization charges as customers worked down excess HDD inventory following demand shortfalls. Manufacturing depends on internally sourced read/write heads and media as well as components obtained from a single or limited number of external suppliers; glass substrates for recording media are sourced entirely from third parties, and PCBAs are outsourced to contract manufacturers. The company must commit to inventory and manufacturing investments three to six months before receiving customer orders, creating inventory write-down risk when demand shifts unexpectedly.

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Seagate's most explicitly flagged supply-chain vulnerability is reliance on single-source suppliers for certain critical components, which the 10-K acknowledges has in the past disrupted production and may do so again. Export control laws and U.S. trade policy — including tariffs on goods produced at the company's primary assembly facilities in China — may increase unit costs or restrict the company's ability to sell to certain customers. Manufacturing delays at any of the company's facilities in China, Malaysia, Northern Ireland, Singapore, Thailand, or the United States are specifically enumerated as material risk factors, reflecting the geographic spread of the integrated supply chain.

See also: Technology · Computer Hardware

From Seagate Technology Holdings PLC's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202642d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.1% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)97.1
P/E (Fwd)37.6
Mkt Cap$228.4B
EV/EBITDA65.9
Profit Mgn21.6%
ROE1788.0%
Rev Growth44.1%
Beta2.08
Dividend0.29%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.05bearish
IV98%elevated
Max Pain$1540+48.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliersingle-source suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'reliance on single-source suppliers, has in the past and may in the future affect our production and development of products and harm our operating results'
  • MEDIUMCustomerkey customers
    10-K Item 1A: 'our key customers, such as OEM customers including large hyperscale data center companies and CSPs, account for a large portion of our revenue in our mass capacity markets'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-06Item 5.02LOW
    Director Michael R. Cannon notified the Board on May 5, 2026, that he will not stand for re-election at the 2026 Annual General Meeting. Decision not due to any disagreement with the company. No successor named; seat not being filled.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Pe
0.1
Forward Pe
2.9
Analyst Target
3.0
Peg Ratio
8.8
Forward P/E: 37.6xPEG: 0.70Expensive valuation

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.1
Growth Rank
4.0
Quality Rank
7.8
Superior ROE vs peers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
1.6
Gap
5.0
52w Position
8.8
GatesA.R:R -1.5=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 8.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 42d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
67 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $695.14Resistance $1097.00

Price Targets

$959
$1075
A.Upside+3.5%
A.R:R-1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-22.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (42d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1039.03 — A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $959.15. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the STX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1075.06 (+4.2% upside). Prior stop was $959.15. Stop-loss: $959.15.

What are the risks of investing in STX?

Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.1% away).

Is STX overvalued or undervalued?

Seagate Technology Holdings PLC trades at a P/E of 97.1 (forward 37.6). TrendMatrix value score: 3.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about STX?

29 analysts cover STX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $886.

What does Seagate Technology Holdings PLC do?Seagate Technology Holdings designs and manufactures hard disk drives, solid-state drives, and storage subsystems...

Seagate Technology Holdings designs and manufactures hard disk drives, solid-state drives, and storage subsystems primarily for nearline cloud and enterprise mass capacity storage, with manufacturing concentrated in China and Thailand. The company sells to OEM customers including hyperscale data center companies, CSPs, distributors, and retailers, with revenue sensitive to customer inventory cycles and HDD technology transition timing.

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