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Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Technology · Computer Hardware

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $736.30, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Seagate Technology is a leading HDD and data storage manufacturer with principal products including nearline HDDs for hyperscale cloud, enterprise SSDs, storage subsystems, and the Lyve edge-to-cloud platform. Incorporated in Ireland and headquartered in Singapore; no single... Read more

$736.300.0% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#3 of 14 Computer Hardware
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield0.97%
IncomeYield0.40%(5y avg 3.06%)Payout27.70%sustainable
Stop $682.02Target $733.46(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.0:1
Analyst target$814.95+10.7%22 analysts
$733.46our TP
$736.30price
$814.95mean
$545
$1140

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $736.30, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Val4.0Qual7.4Grw10.0Mom3.3Sent6.7Ins3.9Peer3.7Tech5.4Risk3.95.8OVERALL

Recent Developments — Seagate Technology Holdings PLC

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.4 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.8): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)70.4
P/E (Fwd)28.3
Mkt Cap$166.1B
EV/EBITDA48.1
Profit Mgn21.6%
ROE1788.0%
Rev Growth44.1%
Beta2.01
Dividend0.40%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.05bearish
IV92%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-06Item 5.02LOW
    Director Michael R. Cannon notified Board he will not stand for re-election at 2026 AGM effective May 5, 2026. No disagreement with Company's operations, policies, or practices cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.7
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.0
Growth Rank
5.0
Quality Rank
7.8
Superior ROE vs peers
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
63 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $553.20Resistance $841.31

Price Targets

$682
$733
A.Upside-0.4%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.0% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 3.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STX stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $736.30, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $733.46 (-0.4%), stop $682.02 (−8.0%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 5.8/10, high confidence.

What is the STX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $733.46 (0.0% upside). Target $733.46 (-0.4%), stop $682.02 (−8.0%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $682.02.

What are the risks of investing in STX?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.8): -1.5.

Is STX overvalued or undervalued?

Seagate Technology Holdings PLC trades at a P/E of 70.4 (forward 28.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about STX?

29 analysts cover STX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $815.

What does Seagate Technology Holdings PLC do?Seagate Technology is a leading HDD and data storage manufacturer with principal products including nearline HDDs for...

Seagate Technology is a leading HDD and data storage manufacturer with principal products including nearline HDDs for hyperscale cloud, enterprise SSDs, storage subsystems, and the Lyve edge-to-cloud platform. Incorporated in Ireland and headquartered in Singapore; no single customer exceeded 10% of net revenue in fiscal 2025.

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