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Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Computer Hardware

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $27.19: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Super Micro Computer provides rack-scale server, storage, and networking solutions for AI/HPC, enterprise datacenters, cloud, and edge computing from Silicon Valley with manufacturing in Taiwan, Netherlands, and Malaysia. Four customers each exceeded 10% of net sales in FY2025... Read more

$27.19+10.2% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#8 of 14 Computer Hardware
Stop $25.22Target $29.88(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$33.20+22.1%15 analysts
$29.88our TP
$27.19price
$33.20mean
$15
$58

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $27.19: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Val7.7Qual3.3Grw7.9Mom3.7Sent5.2Ins5.0Peer4.5Tech3.2Risk4.05.3OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: four customers (each >10% of net sales)
Concentration risk — Supplier: Ablecom and Compuware
Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.2
P/E (Fwd)8.8
Mkt Cap$15.8B
EV/EBITDA15.4
Profit Mgn3.1%
ROE13.2%
Rev Growth123.4%
Beta1.63
DividendNone
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.87neutral
IV102%elevated
Max Pain$1-96.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerfour customers (each >10% of net sales)
    10-K Item 1A: 'We had four customers account for 10% or more of our net sales in fiscal years 2025'
  • HIGHSupplierAblecom and Compuware
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our reliance on Ablecom and Compuware could be subject to risks associated with our reliance on a limited source of contract manufacturing services'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-20Item 5.02LOW
    Stockholders approved amendment and restatement of 2020 Equity and Incentive Compensation Plan at April 15, 2026 Annual Meeting. No officer changes cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-20Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Yih-Shyan Liaw (SVP Business Development and Board Director) resigned effective March 20, 2026 following criminal indictment for alleged export-control violations. DeAnna Luna appointed acting replacement. No disagreement with company cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Support Resistance
3.5
Bollinger
4.2
Gap
5.0

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.9
Operating Margin
1.5
Net Margin
1.6
Roa
2.3
Roe
4.4
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
6.1
Piotroski F
7.8
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 12% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
4.5
Macd
9.1
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $21.79Resistance $29.94

Price Targets

$25
$30
A.Upside+9.9%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.7:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SMCI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $27.19: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Prior stop was $25.22. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SMCI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $29.88 (+10.2% upside). Prior stop was $25.22. Stop-loss: $25.22.

What are the risks of investing in SMCI?

Concentration risk — Customer: four customers (each >10% of net sales); Concentration risk — Supplier: Ablecom and Compuware; Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).

Is SMCI overvalued or undervalued?

Super Micro Computer, Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.2 (forward 8.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SMCI?

26 analysts cover SMCI with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $33.

What does Super Micro Computer, Inc. do?Super Micro Computer provides rack-scale server, storage, and networking solutions for AI/HPC, enterprise datacenters,...

Super Micro Computer provides rack-scale server, storage, and networking solutions for AI/HPC, enterprise datacenters, cloud, and edge computing from Silicon Valley with manufacturing in Taiwan, Netherlands, and Malaysia. Four customers each exceeded 10% of net sales in FY2025 (ended June 30, 2025). The company is remediating material weaknesses in internal controls from prior delinquent SEC filings.

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