Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Technology · Computer Hardware
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $29.45: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Super Micro Computer designs and sells rack-scale server, storage, and networking solutions optimized for AI, HPC, cloud, and edge computing workloads, operating from Silicon Valley with manufacturing in the U.S., Taiwan, Netherlands, and Malaysia. The company sells through... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $29.45: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 40, MACD bearish. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
About Super Micro Computer, Inc.
About Super Micro Computer, Inc.
Four customers each represented 10% or more of Super Micro Computer's net sales in fiscal year 2025, while international sales rose to 40.6% of net sales from 32.0% in fiscal 2024. The company's research and development organization numbered more than 3,200 employees as of June 30, 2025. SMCI designs and sells rack-scale server, storage, and networking solutions across AI datacenter, cloud, enterprise, and edge computing markets, manufacturing a significant share of its output at its San Jose, California headquarters — which the company believes is unique among major server vendors.
SMCI generates revenue through a combination of direct sales to large cloud, enterprise, and OEM customers and an indirect channel comprising distributors, value-added resellers, system integrators, and OEMs. The product portfolio spans liquid-cooled and air-cooled AI servers supporting NVIDIA Hopper (H100/H200) and Blackwell (GB200/B200) platforms launched during fiscal 2025, as well as blade, multi-node, rackmount, storage, embedded, and subsystems product lines. Cost of revenue is tied to third-party component sourcing — primarily CPUs, GPUs, memory, and SSDs — from suppliers including NVIDIA, Intel, and AMD, with whom SMCI co-develops product roadmaps. Contract manufacturing for chassis and certain subassemblies is sourced from related parties Ablecom Technology and Compuware Technology. Primary competitors named in the filing include Dell, Hewlett-Packard Enterprise, Cisco, Lenovo, Foxconn, Quanta Computer, and Wiwynn Corporation.
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SMCI's export control exposure has expanded through successive U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security rounds: restrictions on advanced integrated circuits imposed in October 2022 for China, expanded in November 2023 to cover additional countries including the Middle East, and further revised in January 2025. The company disclosed it may need new licenses to continue supplying existing customers in China, Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia, and its joint venture in China may face additional trade restrictions. In March 2026, the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York unsealed a criminal indictment against three individuals associated with Super Micro for an alleged conspiracy to commit export-control violations.
See also: Technology · Computer Hardware
From Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-17Recent Developments — Super Micro Computer, Inc.
Latest news
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- NEWS 10 Information Technology Stocks Whale Activity In Today's Session — benzinga Jun 16, 2026 neutral
- NEWS 'Big Short' Investor Steve Eisman Is Hesitant About GOOGL, MSFT, But Bets On These Three Sectors — benzinga Jun 15, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Super Micro Computer Stock In The Spotlight As $7 Billion Capital Raise Officially Closes — benzinga Jun 15, 2026 positive
- NEWS Michael Dell's Net Worth Jumps $72 Billion on Dell Rally, and Analysts Predict Further Gains — benzinga Jun 14, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-06-17T09:12:26Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertop-4 customers10-K Item 1: 'Four customers each accounted for 10% or more of our net sales in fiscal year 2025'
- MEDIUMSupplierAblecom and Compuware10-K Item 1A: 'Our reliance on Ablecom and Compuware could be subject to risks associated with our reliance on a limited source of contract manufacturing services and inventory warehousing'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-18Item 5.02LOWDon Clegg, SVP Worldwide Sales, notified the company on May 12, 2026 of his retirement effective May 15, 2026. No disagreement cited. Clegg will consult for a 6-month term at $19,450 per month. No successor named.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-20Item 5.02LOWAt the April 15, 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, shareholders approved the further amendment and restatement of the 2020 Equity and Incentive Compensation Plan. No officer or director departures reported.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-20Item 5.02MEDIUMDirector and SVP Business Development Yih-Shyan Liaw resigned from the board effective March 20, 2026 following a criminal indictment for alleged export-control violation conspiracy. DeAnna Luna appointed as acting successor. No disagreement with company cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $29.45: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 40, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $27.75. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $33.52 (+14.7% upside). Prior stop was $27.75. Stop-loss: $27.75.
Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0).
Super Micro Computer, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.2 (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
26 analysts cover SMCI with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $37.
What does Super Micro Computer, Inc. do?Super Micro Computer designs and sells rack-scale server, storage, and networking solutions optimized for AI, HPC,...
Super Micro Computer designs and sells rack-scale server, storage, and networking solutions optimized for AI, HPC, cloud, and edge computing workloads, operating from Silicon Valley with manufacturing in the U.S., Taiwan, Netherlands, and Malaysia. The company sells through direct and indirect channels to over 1,000 customers in more than 100 countries; four customers each exceeded 10% of net sales in fiscal year 2025.