Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) Stock Analysis
Technology · Computer Hardware
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $33.31: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.37; Below-average business quality.
Super Micro Computer provides AI-optimized servers, storage systems, and liquid cooling solutions from Silicon Valley, manufacturing in San Jose, Taiwan, Netherlands, and Malaysia. Four customers each represented 10%+ of net sales in FY2025 (ended June 2025); the company... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $33.31: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.37; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent Developments — Super Micro Computer, Inc.
Latest news
- What's Going On With Super Micro Stock On Wednesday? — benzinga May 20, 2026 neutral
- Chip Stocks Fall As Inflation Fears Trigger Profit-Taking — benzinga May 15, 2026 negative
- Why Is SMCI Stock Surging On Thursday? — benzinga May 14, 2026 positive
- 'Tip Of The Iceberg': Culper Research Targets Nvidia's Alleged China Problem — benzinga May 13, 2026 negative
- As Jensen Huang Joins Trump's China Summit, Bombshell Report Claims Nvidia's China Revenue Never Went To Zero — benzinga May 13, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertop 4 customers (each ≥10% of net sales)10-K Item 1: 'Four customers each accounted for 10% or more of our net sales in fiscal year 2025'
- MEDIUMGeographicinternational (outside United States)41%10-K Item 1: 'Sales to customers located outside of the United States represented 40.6%, 32.0%, and 32.1% of net sales in fiscal years 2025, 2024, and 2023'
- HIGHSupplierAblecom and Compuware related-party contract manufacturing10-K Item 1: 'We use Ablecom Technology, Inc. ("Ablecom") and its affiliate Compuware Technology, Inc. ("Compuware")...for contract design and manufacturing coordination support'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-20Item 5.02HIGHYih-Shyan 'Wally' Liaw (SVP Business Development and Board Director) indicted for export-control violations and resigned from Board effective March 20, 2026. Two other employees placed on administrative leave. DeAnna Luna appointed acting SVP. No disagreement with Company cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-20Item 5.02LOWStockholders approved further amendment and restatement of the 2020 Equity and Incentive Compensation Plan at the April 15, 2026 Annual Meeting, upon Board recommendation. Routine compensation plan amendment.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $33.31: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.37; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $31.12. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $35.64 (+6.5% upside). Prior stop was $31.12. Stop-loss: $31.12.
Concentration risk — Customer: top 4 customers (each ≥10% of net sales); Concentration risk — Supplier: Ablecom and Compuware related-party contract manufacturing; Target reached (-1.2% upside).
Super Micro Computer, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.1 (forward 9.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
26 analysts cover SMCI with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $37.
What does Super Micro Computer, Inc. do?Super Micro Computer provides AI-optimized servers, storage systems, and liquid cooling solutions from Silicon Valley,...
Super Micro Computer provides AI-optimized servers, storage systems, and liquid cooling solutions from Silicon Valley, manufacturing in San Jose, Taiwan, Netherlands, and Malaysia. Four customers each represented 10%+ of net sales in FY2025 (ended June 2025); the company disclosed material weaknesses in internal controls and was previously delinquent in SEC filings. International sales were 40.6% of net sales in FY2025.