Super Micro Computer delivered 123% revenue growth year-over-year driven by AI server demand, but a free cash flow deficit of negative 597% relative to net income, 17% short interest, a confirmed death cross, and mixed earnings history indicate the growth story has not yet translated into financial quality.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Revenue Growth Ai→Stable
- Severe Negative Cash Conversion→Stable
- High Short Interest Justified↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) Stock Analysis
Technology · Computer Hardware
Sell if holding. At $35.09, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).
Super Micro Computer designs and sells server, storage and AI data-center systems to enterprise data centers, cloud, AI, 5G and edge customers, directly and through indirect channels and OEMs. Four customers each accounted for 10% or more of fiscal 2025 net sales, and sales... Read more
Sell if holding. At $35.09, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, earnings proximity 18d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.
About Super Micro Computer, Inc.
About Super Micro Computer, Inc.
Four customers each accounted for 10% or more of Super Micro Computer's net sales in fiscal 2025, up from a single customer crossing that threshold in fiscal 2024, while sales to customers outside the United States rose to 40.6% of net sales from 32.0% a year earlier. The company sold rack-scale AI and high-performance-computing server, storage, and liquid-cooling systems to more than 1,000 direct customers across over 100 countries, backed by more than 3,200 research-and-development employees.
Supermicro sells Total IT Solutions — complete servers, storage systems, blade servers, and networking gear built on its modular Server Building Block Solutions architecture — through both a direct sales force targeting large cloud, enterprise, and OEM accounts and an indirect channel of distributors, value-added resellers, system integrators, and OEMs. The company designs products in close coordination with processor and GPU partners NVIDIA, Intel, and AMD to align new releases with their product roadmaps, and manufactures the majority of its systems at its San Jose headquarters while using related-party contract manufacturers Ablecom Technology and its affiliate Compuware Technology for chassis design and manufacturing coordination. Software management tools and global services, including on-site support plans and rack-level deployment services for AI clusters, are bundled into server and storage systems revenue rather than reported separately. Supermicro competes against global technology vendors such as Cisco and Dell, as well as lower-cost original design manufacturers.
Show full overview
Supermicro's 10-K discloses extensive export-control exposure tied to U.S. restrictions on advanced GPUs and integrated circuits bound for China, first imposed in October 2022 and expanded in November 2023 to cover additional countries including parts of the Middle East, directly affecting products containing NVIDIA A100 and H100 components. That regulatory exposure became a governance issue in March 2026, when the company disclosed via Form 8-K that the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York had unsealed an indictment against three individuals associated with Supermicro, including board member and SVP Wally Liaw, over an alleged conspiracy to violate export-control laws; Liaw resigned from the Board effective March 20, 2026.
See also: Technology · Computer Hardware
From Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-16Recent Developments — Super Micro Computer, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Super Micro Computer Stock (SMCI) Opinions on AI Server Demand and Trading Activity - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative neutral
- NEWS What's Going On With Super Micro Computer Stock Wednesday? - Benzinga — Benzinga negative
- NEWS Supermicro Soars On Report. Why Nvidia Is Also Rallying. - Investor's Business Daily — Investor's Business Daily positive
- NEWS Why Super Micro Computer Stock Popped Today - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Why Super Micro Computer Stock Popped Today - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com positive
Generated 2026-10-16T11:32:28Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerfour customers each 10% or more of net sales10-K Item 1A: 'We had four customers account for 10% or more of our net sales in fiscal years 2025'
- MEDIUMGeographiccustomers outside the United States41%10-K Item 1: 'Sales to customers located outside of the United States represented 40.6%, 32.0%, and 32.1% of net sales in fiscal years 2025, 2024, and 2023'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-18Item 5.02MEDIUMSVP Worldwide Sales Don Clegg retiring effective May 15, 2026; becomes consultant for 6 months at $19,450/month. No successor named in excerpt.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-20Item 5.02LOWStockholders approved amendment and restatement of the 2020 Equity and Incentive Compensation Plan at the April 15, 2026 annual meeting.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-20Item 5.02MEDIUMSDNY unsealed an indictment of three people tied to the company for alleged export-control violations, including SVP Business Development and director Wally Liaw, who resigned from the Board March 20, 2026; two employees placed on leave, contractor terminated. DeAnna Luna named acting.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $35.09, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $32.63. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $38.04 (+8.4% upside). Prior stop was $32.63. Stop-loss: $32.63.
Thin upside margin: 8.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Super Micro Computer, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.8 (forward 6.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
27 analysts cover SMCI with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $42.
What does Super Micro Computer, Inc. do?Super Micro Computer designs and sells server, storage and AI data-center systems to enterprise data centers, cloud,...
Super Micro Computer designs and sells server, storage and AI data-center systems to enterprise data centers, cloud, AI, 5G and edge customers, directly and through indirect channels and OEMs. Four customers each accounted for 10% or more of fiscal 2025 net sales, and sales outside the U.S. were 40.6% of net sales.