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WCNWaste Connections, Inc.Sell5.5·$169.61+0.96%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Waste Connections has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with consistent low-single-digit positive surprises and holds an 18.4% upside to analyst consensus targets, but trades in a confirmed price downtrend below the 200-day moving average with weak organic growth.

Thesis pillars

  • Perfect Earnings ReliabilityImproving
  • Confirmed Price Downtrend Below 200maDeteriorating
  • Analyst Consensus Upside 18 PercentImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Waste Management

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $169.61: Thin upside margin: 8.5%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

Waste Connections, Inc. is the third largest solid waste services company in North America, providing non-hazardous waste collection, transfer and disposal services, including by rail, along with resource recovery primarily through recycling and renewable fuels generation, in 46... Read more

$169.61+8.5% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#1 of 8 Waste Management
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.45%
IncomeYield0.83%(5y avg 0.69%)Payout32.97%sustainable
Stop $162.35Target $184.05(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$204.50+20.6%26 analysts
$184.05our TP
$169.61price
$204.50mean
$305

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $169.61: Thin upside margin: 8.5%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 87d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Oct 20, 202687d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive insider activity
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.5%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)40.7
P/E (Fwd)27.3
Mkt Cap$42.8B
EV/EBITDA16.7
Profit Mgn10.9%
ROE13.0%
Rev Growth6.4%
Beta0.48
Dividend0.83%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.97neutral
IV31%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.9
Revenue Growth
4.1
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.5>=4.5A.R:R 1.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 87d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $163.69Resistance $176.71

Price Targets

$162
$184
A.Upside+8.5%
A.R:R1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-20 (87d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WCN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $169.61: Thin upside margin: 8.5%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $162.35. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WCN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $184.05 (+8.5% upside). Prior stop was $162.35. Stop-loss: $162.35.

What are the risks of investing in WCN?

Thin upside margin: 8.5%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Weak growth.

Is WCN overvalued or undervalued?

Waste Connections, Inc. trades at a P/E of 40.7 (forward 27.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WCN?

20 analysts cover WCN with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $205.

What does Waste Connections, Inc. do?Waste Connections, Inc. is the third largest solid waste services company in North America, providing non-hazardous...

Waste Connections, Inc. is the third largest solid waste services company in North America, providing non-hazardous waste collection, transfer and disposal services, including by rail, along with resource recovery primarily through recycling and renewable fuels generation, in 46 states in the U.S. and six provinces in Canada.

Related stocks: WM (Waste Management, Inc.) · RSG (Republic Services, Inc.) · CWST (Casella Waste Systems, Inc.) · CLH (Clean Harbors, Inc.) · GFL (GFL Environmental Inc. Subordin)
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