Waste Connections has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with consistent low-single-digit positive surprises and holds an 18.4% upside to analyst consensus targets, but trades in a confirmed price downtrend below the 200-day moving average with weak organic growth.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Earnings Reliability→Stable
- Confirmed Price Downtrend Below 200ma↑Improving
- Analyst Consensus Upside 18 Percent→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Waste Management
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $164.70 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 9.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).
Waste Connections, Inc. is the third largest solid waste services company in North America, providing non-hazardous waste collection, transfer and disposal services, including by rail, along with resource recovery primarily through recycling and renewable fuels generation, in 46... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $164.70 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 9.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 46d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-04Recent Developments — Waste Connections, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Waste Connections (WCN) Surpasses Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Waste Connections (WCN) Surpasses Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - Yahoo! Finance Canada — Yahoo! Finance Canada positive
- NEWS Waste Connections tops Q2 estimates, raises outlook as margins expand (WCN:NYSE) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS Waste Connections (WCN) Releases Q2 2026 Earnings: Revenue Up 6.4%, EPS Grows 4.5% - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative positive
- NEWS Waste Connections Raises 2026 Outlook After Strong Quarter - TipRanks — TipRanks positive
Generated 2026-09-04T15:07:41Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $164.70 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 9.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $159.09. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $180.54 (+9.6% upside). Prior stop was $159.09. Stop-loss: $159.09.
Thin upside margin: 9.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Waste Connections, Inc. trades at a P/E of 39.7 (forward 26.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover WCN with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $201.
What does Waste Connections, Inc. do?Waste Connections, Inc. is the third largest solid waste services company in North America, providing non-hazardous...
Waste Connections, Inc. is the third largest solid waste services company in North America, providing non-hazardous waste collection, transfer and disposal services, including by rail, along with resource recovery primarily through recycling and renewable fuels generation, in 46 states in the U.S. and six provinces in Canada.