Waste Connections has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with consistent low-single-digit positive surprises and holds an 18.4% upside to analyst consensus targets, but trades in a confirmed price downtrend below the 200-day moving average with weak organic growth.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Earnings Reliability→Stable
- Confirmed Price Downtrend Below 200ma→Stable
- Analyst Consensus Upside 18 Percent→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Industrials · Waste Management
Sell if holding. At $168.82, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.
Waste Connections, Inc. is the third largest solid waste services company in North America, providing non-hazardous waste collection, transfer and disposal services, including by rail, along with resource recovery primarily through recycling and renewable fuels generation, in 46... Read more
Sell if holding. At $168.82, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 19d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Waste Connections, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Waste Connections (WCN) Surpasses Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Waste Connections’s (NYSE:WCN) Q1 CY2026 Sales Beat Estimates - TradingView — TradingView positive
- NEWS Waste Connections’s (NYSE:WCN) Q1 CY2026 Sales Beat Estimates - FinancialContent — FinancialContent positive
- NEWS Waste Connections Delivers Strong Q1 2026 Results, Boosts Outlook - TipRanks — TipRanks positive
- NEWS Waste Connections tops Q1 estimates as revenue, profit beat targets (WCN:NYSE) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
Generated 2026-07-06T06:00:35Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $168.82, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72. Prior stop was $160.94. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $183.53 (+8.7% upside). Prior stop was $160.94. Stop-loss: $160.94.
Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Weak overall score: 4.9/10.
Waste Connections, Inc. trades at a P/E of 41.2 (forward 27.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover WCN with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $204.
What does Waste Connections, Inc. do?Waste Connections, Inc. is the third largest solid waste services company in North America, providing non-hazardous...
Waste Connections, Inc. is the third largest solid waste services company in North America, providing non-hazardous waste collection, transfer and disposal services, including by rail, along with resource recovery primarily through recycling and renewable fuels generation, in 46 states in the U.S. and six provinces in Canada.