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VVVValvoline Inc.Sell5.9·$34.19+1.24%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Valvoline is an automotive quick-lube service company with 25% revenue growth, 32% return on equity, and a recovery technical pattern with improving MACD, but the stock has already reached its analyst price target with essentially zero upside remaining, a risk score below the minimum threshold at 2.7, and 14% short interest combined with a 4.60 put/call ratio signaling intense bearish conviction.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Growth High RoeStable
  • Target Reached Extreme Options RiskStable
  • Recovery Pattern Overbought SignalDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Valvoline Inc. (VVV) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $34.19 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.7): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Valvoline Inc. is a leader in automotive preventive maintenance delivering convenient and trusted services in its retail stores throughout the United States ("U.S.") and Canada. The terms "Valvoline," the "Company," "we," "us," "management," and "our" as used herein refer to... Read more

$34.19+13.7% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#4 of 17 Auto & Truck Dealerships
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.68%
Stop $31.85Target $38.88(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$43.20+26.4%15 analysts
$38.88our TP
$34.19price
$43.20mean
$48

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $34.19 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.7): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 95d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-15

Recent Developments — Valvoline Inc.

Material events (past 30 days)

  • 8K Jul 23, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: . | Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (d). On July 22, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Valvoline Inc.

Generated 2026-08-15T10:47:37Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 18, 202695d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive insider activity
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 4.7): -1.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)41.2
P/E (Fwd)16.9
Mkt Cap$4.3B
EV/EBITDA12.9
Profit Mgn5.2%
ROE28.4%
Rev Growth24.1%
Beta1.02
DividendNone
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.61bullish
IV75%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-07-23Item 5.02MEDIUM
    . | Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (d). On July 22, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Valvoline Inc.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 25, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 95d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
25 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $32.83Resistance $40.84

Price Targets

$32
$39
A.Upside+13.7%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-18 (95d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VVV stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $34.19 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.7): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $31.85. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VVV stock price target?

Take-profit target: $38.88 (+13.7% upside). Prior stop was $31.85. Stop-loss: $31.85.

What are the risks of investing in VVV?

Leverage penalty (D/E 4.7): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Is VVV overvalued or undervalued?

Valvoline Inc. trades at a P/E of 41.2 (forward 16.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VVV?

21 analysts cover VVV with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $43.

What does Valvoline Inc. do?Valvoline Inc. is a leader in automotive preventive maintenance delivering convenient and trusted services in its...

Valvoline Inc. is a leader in automotive preventive maintenance delivering convenient and trusted services in its retail stores throughout the United States ("U.S.") and Canada. The terms "Valvoline," the "Company," "we," "us," "management," and "our" as used herein refer to Valvoline Inc., its predecessors and its consolidated subsidiaries, except where the context indicates otherwise.

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