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VSECVSE CorporationHold5.8·$232.33+1.57%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

VSE Corporation is an aerospace and defense services company with a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak averaging 29.3% positive surprise, 27% revenue growth, and a breakout technical pattern with a golden cross — but the stock has only 10.8% upside to analyst targets and below-threshold near-term asymmetry, making it a hold rather than a new buy at current levels.

Thesis pillars

  • Consistent Large Earnings BeatsStable
  • Strong Revenue Growth 27pctStable
  • Golden Cross Breakout MomentumStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

VSE Corporation (VSEC) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldModerate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $232.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.3% away).

VSE Corporation provides aftermarket parts distribution and MRO services for aviation assets, serving commercial airlines, regional carriers, business aviation operators, cargo transporters, and corporate aircraft owners globally through a single Aviation segment. The company... Read more

$232.33+0.3% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#17 of 64 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.69%
IncomeYield0.17%(5y avg 0.58%)Payout13.84%sustainable
Stop $216.07Target $233.00(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$255.67+10.0%9 analysts
$233.00our TP
$232.33price
$255.67mean
$270

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $232.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.3% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 26d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202626d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Positive momentum
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.3% away)
Overbought (RSI 84)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)80.1
P/E (Fwd)40.6
Mkt Cap$6.5B
EV/EBITDA31.6
Profit Mgn4.2%
ROE3.8%
Rev Growth26.8%
Beta1.21
Dividend0.17%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C3.83bearish
IV59%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerCustomer Group (affiliated customers under common ownership)20%
    10-K Item 1A: 'A group of affiliated customers under common ownership (the "Customer Group") collectively accounted for approximately 20% of the Company's revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.9
Quality Rank
3.3
Growth Rank
7.4
GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 26d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
84 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $167.95Resistance $237.75

Price Targets

$216
$233
A.Upside+0.3%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.3% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (26d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VSEC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $232.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.3% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $233.00 (+0.3%), stop $216.07 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VSEC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $233.00 (+0.3% upside). Target $233.00 (+0.3%), stop $216.07 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Stop-loss: $216.07.

What are the risks of investing in VSEC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.3% away); Overbought (RSI 84).

Is VSEC overvalued or undervalued?

VSE Corporation trades at a P/E of 80.1 (forward 40.6). TrendMatrix value score: 4.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about VSEC?

15 analysts cover VSEC with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $256.

What does VSE Corporation do?VSE Corporation provides aftermarket parts distribution and MRO services for aviation assets, serving commercial...

VSE Corporation provides aftermarket parts distribution and MRO services for aviation assets, serving commercial airlines, regional carriers, business aviation operators, cargo transporters, and corporate aircraft owners globally through a single Aviation segment. The company employs approximately 1,600 people and in January 2026 signed a $2.025 billion agreement to acquire Precision Aviation Group, targeting a second-quarter 2026 close.

Related stocks: PKE (Park Aerospace Corp.) · HEI-A (Heico Corporation) · HEI (Heico Corporation) · EMBJ (Embraer S.A.) · SWBI (Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.)
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