Smith & Wesson pairs a perfect earnings beat streak and strong cash conversion with weakening near-term momentum and a dividend the engine flags as a yield trap.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Beat Streak Strong Growth→Stable
- Excellent Cash Conversion→Stable
- Failed Momentum Negative Asymmetry→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $12.48 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Smith & Wesson Brands is one of the world's leading manufacturers of firearms, producing handguns, long guns, handcuffs, and suppressors under the Smith & Wesson and Gemtech brands at facilities in Maryville, Tennessee; Springfield, Massachusetts; and Houlton, Maine. The company... Read more
Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $12.48 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-03Recent Developments — Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Man Group plc Acquires New Shares in Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. $SWBI - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Smith & Wesson (SWBI) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Smith & Wesson (SWBI) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - stockstory.org — stockstory.org neutral
- NEWS Smith & Wesson (SWBI) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - FinancialContent — FinancialContent neutral
- NEWS Smith & Wesson (SWBI) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - financialcontent.com — financialcontent.com neutral
Generated 2026-09-03T17:58:00Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertop five commercial distributors46%10-K Item 1: 'Our top five commercial distributors in the United States accounted for a total of 46%, 45%, and 46% of our net sales for the fiscal years ended April 30, 2026, 2025, and 2024, respectively.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $12.48 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $14.66 (+20.7%), stop $11.83 (−2.7%), A.R:R 3.9:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $14.66 (+20.8% upside). Target $14.66 (+20.7%), stop $11.83 (−2.7%), A.R:R 3.9:1. Stop-loss: $11.83.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative momentum.
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of 31.2 (forward 38.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
8 analysts cover SWBI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $17.
What does Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. do?Smith & Wesson Brands is one of the world's leading manufacturers of firearms, producing handguns, long guns,...
Smith & Wesson Brands is one of the world's leading manufacturers of firearms, producing handguns, long guns, handcuffs, and suppressors under the Smith & Wesson and Gemtech brands at facilities in Maryville, Tennessee; Springfield, Massachusetts; and Houlton, Maine. The company sells primarily through two-step distribution to commercial distributors and retailers, with its top five U.S. commercial distributors accounting for 46% of net sales in fiscal 2026, and generated $114.2 million in cash from operations that year. Smith & Wesson also sells manufacturing services such as forging, machini