Smith & Wesson pairs a perfect earnings beat streak and strong cash conversion with weakening near-term momentum and a dividend the engine flags as a yield trap.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Beat Streak Strong Growth→Stable
- Excellent Cash Conversion→Stable
- Failed Momentum Negative Asymmetry→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.98, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Thin upside margin: 4.9%.
Smith & Wesson Brands is one of the world's leading manufacturers of firearms, producing handguns, long guns, handcuffs, and suppressors under the Smith & Wesson and Gemtech brands at facilities in Maryville, Tennessee; Springfield, Massachusetts; and Houlton, Maine. The company... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.98, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Thin upside margin: 4.9%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-23Recent Developments — Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Man Group plc Acquires New Shares in Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. $SWBI - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Smith & Wesson (SWBI) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Smith & Wesson (SWBI) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Smith & Wesson (SWBI) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - stockstory.org — stockstory.org neutral
- NEWS Smith & Wesson (SWBI) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - TradingView — TradingView neutral
Generated 2026-09-24T00:57:01Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertop five commercial distributors46%10-K Item 1: 'Our top five commercial distributors in the United States accounted for a total of 46%, 45%, and 46% of our net sales for the fiscal years ended April 30, 2026, 2025, and 2024, respectively.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.98, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Thin upside margin: 4.9%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $14.66 (+4.9%), stop $13.00 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $14.66 (+4.9% upside). Target $14.66 (+4.9%), stop $13.00 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Stop-loss: $13.00.
Thin upside margin: 4.9%.
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.1 (forward 23.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Hold.
8 analysts cover SWBI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $17.
What does Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. do?Smith & Wesson Brands is one of the world's leading manufacturers of firearms, producing handguns, long guns,...
Smith & Wesson Brands is one of the world's leading manufacturers of firearms, producing handguns, long guns, handcuffs, and suppressors under the Smith & Wesson and Gemtech brands at facilities in Maryville, Tennessee; Springfield, Massachusetts; and Houlton, Maine. The company sells primarily through two-step distribution to commercial distributors and retailers, with its top five U.S. commercial distributors accounting for 46% of net sales in fiscal 2026, and generated $114.2 million in cash from operations that year. Smith & Wesson also sells manufacturing services such as forging, machini