Smith & Wesson has a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, 32% revenue growth and excellent cash conversion, but weak momentum, a 22x forward P/E and only 11.2% upside to the analyst target limit the setup.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
- Excellent Cash Conversion→Stable
- Strong Revenue Growth→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Jun 17, 2026
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $13.18 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Smith & Wesson Brands is one of the world's leading manufacturers of firearms, producing handguns, long guns, handcuffs, and suppressors under the Smith & Wesson and Gemtech brands at facilities in Maryville, Tennessee; Springfield, Massachusetts; and Houlton, Maine. The company... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $13.18 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 31d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-11-02Recent Developments — Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Man Group plc Acquires New Shares in Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. $SWBI - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Smith & Wesson (SWBI) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Smith & Wesson (SWBI) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Smith & Wesson (SWBI) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - stockstory.org — stockstory.org neutral
- NEWS Smith & Wesson (SWBI) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - TradingView — TradingView neutral
Generated 2026-11-02T11:48:16Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertop five commercial distributors46%10-K Item 1: 'Our top five commercial distributors in the United States accounted for a total of 46%, 45%, and 46% of our net sales for the fiscal years ended April 30, 2026, 2025, and 2024, respectively.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $13.18 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $12.73. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $14.66 (+11.2% upside). Prior stop was $12.73. Stop-loss: $12.73.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative momentum.
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.4 (forward 22.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts cover SWBI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $17.
What does Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. do?Smith & Wesson Brands is one of the world's leading manufacturers of firearms, producing handguns, long guns,...
Smith & Wesson Brands is one of the world's leading manufacturers of firearms, producing handguns, long guns, handcuffs, and suppressors under the Smith & Wesson and Gemtech brands at facilities in Maryville, Tennessee; Springfield, Massachusetts; and Houlton, Maine. The company sells primarily through two-step distribution to commercial distributors and retailers, with its top five U.S. commercial distributors accounting for 46% of net sales in fiscal 2026, and generated $114.2 million in cash from operations that year. Smith & Wesson also sells manufacturing services such as forging, machini