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VRNSVaronis Systems, Inc.Sell5.5·$44.30-3.31%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Varonis Systems is a data security software company with 27% revenue growth and a Rule of 40 score of 54, but the stock trades below its 200-day moving average in a confirmed downtrend, an extremely elevated put/call ratio of 8.33, and negative near-term asymmetry — making the fundamental quality story difficult to trade until momentum recovers.

Thesis pillars

  • Rule Of 40 Software QualityStable
  • Earnings Beat ConsistencyStable
  • Confirmed Downtrend RiskDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Varonis Systems, Inc. (VRNS) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $44.30 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

Varonis Systems sells data security software protecting enterprise files, email, and databases across cloud, SaaS, and on-premises environments in more than 95 countries. Revenue is subscription-based via SaaS platform licenses sold through global channel partners, with renewal... Read more

$44.30+1.4% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#72 of 103 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield2.64%
Stop $41.84Target $45.61(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$50.68+14.4%22 analysts
$45.61our TP
$44.30price
$50.68mean
$28
$60

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $44.30 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 74d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Oct 27, 202674d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Positive insider activity
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)111.0
Mkt Cap$5.3B
EV/EBITDA-39.0
Profit Mgn-20.5%
ROE-36.0%
Rev Growth18.3%
Beta0.81
DividendNone
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.44bullish
IV101%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-02Item 5.02LOW
    Stockholders approved increase of 6,402,279 shares available under Amended and Restated 2023 Omnibus Equity Incentive Plan at June 1, 2026 Annual Meeting. Routine compensatory arrangement expansion; no officer departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.7
Value Rank
3.0
Growth Rank
5.3

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
2.9
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
8.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
3.5
Support Resistance
3.6
52w Position
4.1
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 74d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $38.96Resistance $48.43

Price Targets

$42
$46
A.Upside+1.4%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.4% upside)
! momentum at 3.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-27 (74d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VRNS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $44.30 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $41.84. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VRNS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $45.61 (+1.4% upside). Prior stop was $41.84. Stop-loss: $41.84.

What are the risks of investing in VRNS?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Negative momentum.

Is VRNS overvalued or undervalued?

Varonis Systems, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 111.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VRNS?

30 analysts cover VRNS with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $51.

What does Varonis Systems, Inc. do?Varonis Systems sells data security software protecting enterprise files, email, and databases across cloud, SaaS, and...

Varonis Systems sells data security software protecting enterprise files, email, and databases across cloud, SaaS, and on-premises environments in more than 95 countries. Revenue is subscription-based via SaaS platform licenses sold through global channel partners, with renewal rates above 90% in 2025. The company announced end-of-life for on-premises products by December 31, 2026, accelerating the shift to ratable SaaS revenue recognition.

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