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Varonis Systems, Inc. (VRNS) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. At $29.91, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.8%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7).

Varonis Systems is a data security company offering a cloud-based SaaS platform that protects enterprise data across cloud, SaaS, and on-premises environments, spanning data discovery, classification, access governance, and threat detection. Sold globally to 95+ countries under... Read more

$29.91+9.8% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#27 of 78 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield5.31%
Stop $27.69Target $32.69(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$36.32+21.4%22 analysts
$32.69our TP
$29.91price
$36.32mean
$28
$47

Sell if holding. At $29.91, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.8%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Varonis Systems, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.8%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7)
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)75.3
Mkt Cap$3.4B
EV/EBITDA-22.8
Profit Mgn-19.8%
ROE-31.8%
Rev Growth26.9%
Beta0.80
DividendNone
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.39bullish
IV58%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Support Resistance
0.2
Bollinger
0.6
Gap
5.0

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.9
Value Rank
4.1
Growth Rank
7.1
GatesA.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $23.26Resistance $29.89

Price Targets

$28
$33
A.Upside+9.3%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 0.7:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VRNS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $29.91, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.8%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Prior stop was $27.69. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VRNS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $32.69 (+9.8% upside). Prior stop was $27.69. Stop-loss: $27.69.

What are the risks of investing in VRNS?

Thin upside margin: 9.8%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Is VRNS overvalued or undervalued?

Varonis Systems, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 75.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VRNS?

29 analysts cover VRNS with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $36.

What does Varonis Systems, Inc. do?Varonis Systems is a data security company offering a cloud-based SaaS platform that protects enterprise data across...

Varonis Systems is a data security company offering a cloud-based SaaS platform that protects enterprise data across cloud, SaaS, and on-premises environments, spanning data discovery, classification, access governance, and threat detection. Sold globally to 95+ countries under subscription licenses with >90% renewal rates in 2025; self-hosted products are end-of-life December 31, 2026.

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