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VMIValmont Industries, Inc.Hold5.9·$486.16-0.50%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Valmont Industries has a perfect Piotroski financial-strength score of 9 out of 9 and has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but trades significantly above its analyst consensus price target with a put-to-call ratio of 4.56, heavy steel commodity exposure of 50% of inputs, and recent leadership changes signaling potential operational uncertainty.

Thesis pillars

  • Steel Commodity Concentration RiskDeteriorating
  • Perfect Piotroski Financial HealthImproving
  • Solid Recent Earnings Beat RecordImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Valmont Industries, Inc. (VMI) Stock Analysis

HoldQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Conglomerates

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $486.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Commodity: steel (50.0%); Thin upside margin: 9.2%.

Valmont Industries manufactures infrastructure structures (utility, lighting, transportation, telecom, solar) and Valley-brand center-pivot irrigation equipment across two segments, with 10,791 employees and a $1.65 billion backlog at December 27, 2025. Revenue flows from direct... Read more

$486.16+9.2% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#5 of 19 Conglomerates
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.61%
IncomeYield0.59%(5y avg 0.81%)Payout15.63%sustainable
Stop $458.88Target $530.82(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$624.50+28.5%4 analysts
$530.82our TP
$486.16price
$624.50mean
$678

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $486.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Commodity: steel (50.0%); Thin upside margin: 9.2%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 87d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Oct 20, 202687d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive insider activity
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Commodity: steel (50.0%)
Thin upside margin: 9.2%
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.2
P/E (Fwd)18.8
Mkt Cap$9.4B
EV/EBITDA15.0
Profit Mgn11.7%
ROE29.8%
Rev Growth6.5%
Beta1.33
Dividend0.59%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.40bearish
IV40%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerU.S. electric utility industry
    10-K Item 1A: 'a significant portion of our sales ... In fiscal 2025, our sales to the U.S. electric utility industry were approximately $1.5 billion'
  • MEDIUMGeographicinternational sales28%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 28% of our fiscal 2025 net sales occurring outside the U.S.'
  • HIGHCommoditysteel50%
    10-K Item 1A: 'the cost of steel has accounted for approximately 50% of net sales on average'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-09Item 5.02MEDIUM
    John Schwietz appointed EVP, CFO and Corporate Secretary effective April 8, 2026, succeeding Thomas Liguori. Schwietz joined Valmont in 2009 and most recently served as President – International Agriculture.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-15Item 5.02LOW
    Compensation terms for newly appointed CFO John Schwietz disclosed per Human Resources Committee approval; details set forth in Exhibit 99.1. No new departure or appointment disclosed.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-06-01Item 5.02LOW
    Separation and release agreement entered May 26, 2026 with former CFO Thomas Liguori. Liguori to provide consulting until December 26, 2026 under confidentiality and restrictive covenants; compensation per agreement terms.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Volume
4.6
Rsi
9.2
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 13)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5A.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 87d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
13 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $473.07Resistance $582.21

Price Targets

$459
$531
A.Upside+9.2%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-20 (87d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VMI stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $486.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Commodity: steel (50.0%); Thin upside margin: 9.2%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $530.82 (+9.2%), stop $458.88 (−5.9%), A.R:R 1.2:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VMI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $530.82 (+9.2% upside). Target $530.82 (+9.2%), stop $458.88 (−5.9%), A.R:R 1.2:1. Stop-loss: $458.88.

What are the risks of investing in VMI?

Concentration risk — Commodity: steel (50.0%); Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Negative momentum.

Is VMI overvalued or undervalued?

Valmont Industries, Inc. trades at a P/E of 27.2 (forward 18.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about VMI?

11 analysts cover VMI with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $625.

What does Valmont Industries, Inc. do?Valmont Industries manufactures infrastructure structures (utility, lighting, transportation, telecom, solar) and...

Valmont Industries manufactures infrastructure structures (utility, lighting, transportation, telecom, solar) and Valley-brand center-pivot irrigation equipment across two segments, with 10,791 employees and a $1.65 billion backlog at December 27, 2025. Revenue flows from direct sales and commissioned agents in Infrastructure, and through approximately 650 dealer locations globally in Agriculture.

Related stocks: PAM (Pampa Energia S.A.) · DLX (Deluxe Corporation) · SEB (Seaboard Corporation) · MMM (3M Company) · HON (Honeywell International Inc.)
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