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Valmont Industries, Inc. (VMI) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Conglomerates

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $510.09 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: steel.

Valmont Industries manufactures infrastructure products (utility structures, lighting poles, telecom towers, coatings) and agricultural irrigation equipment (center pivot systems), serving global markets from 80+ facilities across six continents. In fiscal 2025, approximately... Read more

$510.09-1.8% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#3 of 9 Conglomerates
Stop $474.09Target $500.71(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$527.00+3.3%3 analysts
$500.71our TP
$510.09price
$527.00mean
$501
$541

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $510.09 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: steel. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: steel
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (-1.2% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.3
P/E (Fwd)19.4
Mkt Cap$9.6B
EV/EBITDA16.2
Profit Mgn8.9%
ROE22.2%
Rev Growth6.2%
Beta1.24
Dividend0.59%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C2.57bearish
IV33%normal
Max Pain$290-43.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliersteel
    10-K Item 1A: 'Steel is particularly significant for our Utility product line, where the cost of steel has accounted for approximately 50% of net sales on average.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-15Item 5.02LOW
    Valmont reported compensation details for newly appointed CFO John Schwietz (appointed April 8, 2026). Routine compensatory disclosure supplementing prior announcement.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-09Item 5.02MEDIUM
    John Schwietz appointed as EVP, CFO and Corporate Secretary effective April 8, 2026, succeeding Thomas Liguori. Clean handoff with successor named.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-06Item 4.01HIGH
    On March 3, 2026, Valmont dismissed prior auditor and appointed KPMG LLP as new independent registered public accounting firm effective for fiscal year ending December 26, 2026. No prior disagreements cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-25Item 5.02LOW
    Paul T. Maass appointed to Valmont board of directors on February 22, 2026 as non-employee director. Board size increased to eleven members. Routine board appointment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
76 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $379.99Resistance $510.93

Price Targets

$474
$501
A.Upside-1.8%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-12.1% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VMI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $510.09 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: steel. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $474.09. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VMI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $500.71 (-1.8% upside). Prior stop was $474.09. Stop-loss: $474.09.

What are the risks of investing in VMI?

Concentration risk — Supplier: steel; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (-1.2% away).

Is VMI overvalued or undervalued?

Valmont Industries, Inc. trades at a P/E of 27.3 (forward 19.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VMI?

11 analysts cover VMI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $527.

What does Valmont Industries, Inc. do?Valmont Industries manufactures infrastructure products (utility structures, lighting poles, telecom towers, coatings)...

Valmont Industries manufactures infrastructure products (utility structures, lighting poles, telecom towers, coatings) and agricultural irrigation equipment (center pivot systems), serving global markets from 80+ facilities across six continents. In fiscal 2025, approximately 28% of net sales were outside the U.S.; sales to the U.S. electric utility industry were approximately $1.5 billion.

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