Value
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.2 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.0 |
| PEG | 5.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.6x
- ▸PEG: 1.27
VMI · Why this verdict
Why Valmont Industries (VMI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Steel accounts for 50% of input costs, creating significant exposure to commodity price cycles that can compress margins without any change in the underlying business; this concentration risk has been specifically flagged in the company's annual risk disclosures. Bear case | Gross margin or operating margin does not decline by more than 3 percentage points in any reported quarter due to steel cost inflation. | →Stable |
| CounterIndustrial companies with heavy steel exposure often have pricing pass-through mechanisms; Valmont may be able to pass steel cost increases through to customers in infrastructure and utility markets. | ||
A Piotroski financial-strength score of 9 out of 9 — the maximum possible — indicates that Valmont's balance sheet health, profitability trends, and operational efficiency are simultaneously at their strongest across all measured dimensions. Quality breakdown | Piotroski score stays at 8 or above through the next 2 annual reporting periods, maintaining near-perfect financial health. | →Stable |
| CounterPerfect Piotroski scores often lag turning points; the score can remain elevated for several quarters after business conditions have begun to deteriorate in cyclical industrial companies. | ||
Three of the four most recent quarters produced positive earnings surprises, including a 16% beat in April 2026 and an 8% beat in October 2025, indicating the management team generally delivers results at or above consensus expectations. Earnings | Earnings surprise stays positive in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe February 2026 quarter produced a minor miss of minus 1%, and with 50% steel input exposure, any commodity cost spike could quickly erode the beat pattern. | ||
A put-to-call ratio of 4.56 — among the highest in the market — combined with the stock trading above its analyst consensus price target with negative implied upside, suggests that sophisticated market participants are hedging against downside at current levels. Options | Put-to-call ratio falls below 2.0 within the next 6 months, indicating a reduction in defensive positioning. | →Stable |
| CounterExtreme put-to-call ratios often represent concentrated institutional hedging of existing long positions rather than speculative short bets, and historically precede sharper recoveries. | ||
Steel accounts for 50% of input costs, creating significant exposure to commodity price cycles that can compress margins without any change in the underlying business; this concentration risk has been specifically flagged in the company's annual risk disclosures.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Gross margin or operating margin does not decline by more than 3 percentage points in any reported quarter due to steel cost inflation.
CounterIndustrial companies with heavy steel exposure often have pricing pass-through mechanisms; Valmont may be able to pass steel cost increases through to customers in infrastructure and utility markets.
A Piotroski financial-strength score of 9 out of 9 — the maximum possible — indicates that Valmont's balance sheet health, profitability trends, and operational efficiency are simultaneously at their strongest across all measured dimensions.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski score stays at 8 or above through the next 2 annual reporting periods, maintaining near-perfect financial health.
CounterPerfect Piotroski scores often lag turning points; the score can remain elevated for several quarters after business conditions have begun to deteriorate in cyclical industrial companies.
Three of the four most recent quarters produced positive earnings surprises, including a 16% beat in April 2026 and an 8% beat in October 2025, indicating the management team generally delivers results at or above consensus expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise stays positive in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters.
CounterThe February 2026 quarter produced a minor miss of minus 1%, and with 50% steel input exposure, any commodity cost spike could quickly erode the beat pattern.
A put-to-call ratio of 4.56 — among the highest in the market — combined with the stock trading above its analyst consensus price target with negative implied upside, suggests that sophisticated market participants are hedging against downside at current levels.
→StableOptions
- Expectation
- Put-to-call ratio falls below 2.0 within the next 6 months, indicating a reduction in defensive positioning.
CounterExtreme put-to-call ratios often represent concentrated institutional hedging of existing long positions rather than speculative short bets, and historically precede sharper recoveries.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Valmont Industries has a perfect Piotroski financial-strength score of 9 out of 9 and has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but trades significantly above its analyst consensus price target with a put-to-call ratio of 4.56, heavy steel commodity exposure of 50% of inputs, and recent leadership changes signaling potential operational uncertainty.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.4 |
| ROA | 6.7 |
| Gross margin | 2.1 |
| Op margin | 6.0 |
| Net margin | 4.5 |
| Current ratio | 8.1 |
| FCF quality | 4.0 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 50% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.0 |
| EPS growth | 7.5 |
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.8 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
| erm sentiment | 4.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $9,046,447 (0.084% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.6 |
| quality rank | 6.6 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.9 |
| support resistance | 2.8 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.2 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 3.7 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 6.1 |
| beta | 5.7 |
| debt equity | 7.7 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 9.86
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.7 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 52.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:15d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.83
Upside
-7.9%
Downside
9.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 15d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.33>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 6.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.83 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 6.1, Sentiment at 5.9, and Growth at 5.8; the weakest are Momentum at 3.3, Insider at 3.9, and Value at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.83 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Piotroski Financial Health
Trip ifPiotroski score falls below 7 in any annual reporting period.
- P2Solid Recent Earnings Beat Record
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Steel Commodity Concentration Risk
Trip ifOperating margin declines by more than 4 percentage points year-over-year in any reported quarter.
- P4Elevated Put Call Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio rises above 6.0, indicating further escalation of defensive options positioning above the current 4.56.