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VMCVulcan Materials Company (HoldiSell5.0·$303.19+2.77%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Vulcan Materials shows strong positive price momentum with volume accumulation and a bullish technical setup, but two of the last four quarters missed earnings estimates, the stock trades at a premium valuation with a forward price-to-earnings of 27x, and free cash flow represents only 22% of net income, raising earnings quality concerns.

Thesis pillars

  • Positive Price Momentum AccumulationStable
  • Premium Valuation Low Free CashflowStable
  • Elevated Put Call Options PositioningStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Vulcan Materials Company (Holdi (VMC) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Building Materials

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $303.19 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Company operates primarily in the U.S. and is the nation's largest supplier of construction aggregates (mainly crushed stone, sand and gravel) and a major producer of aggregates-intensive downstream products such as asphalt mix and ready-mixed concrete. Delivered by trucks,... Read more

$303.19+3.8% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#12 of 14 Building Materials
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield0.62%
IncomeYield0.69%(5y avg 0.77%)Payout23.58%sustainable
Stop $282.23Target $314.74(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$326.50+7.7%22 analysts
$314.74our TP
$303.19price
$326.50mean
$198
$365

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $303.19 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, earnings proximity 26d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202626d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Weak overall score: 5.0/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)36.0
P/E (Fwd)28.0
Mkt Cap$39.3B
EV/EBITDA18.9
Profit Mgn13.8%
ROE13.5%
Rev Growth7.4%
Beta1.05
Dividend0.69%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.80neutral
IV44%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-11Item 5.02MEDIUM
    On May 11, Item 5.07. | Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders. ---|--- On May 8, 2026, the Company held its annual meeting of shareholders (the "Annual Meeting").
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.6
Pe
3.5
Peg Ratio
3.9
Analyst Target
4.0
Forward Pe
4.4
Ps
7.0
Forward P/E: 28.0xPEG: 2.63
GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5A.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 26d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $269.53Resistance $321.16

Price Targets

$282
$315
A.Upside+3.8%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.1% upside)
! momentum at 4.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (26d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VMC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $303.19 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $282.23. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VMC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $314.74 (+3.8% upside). Prior stop was $282.23. Stop-loss: $282.23.

What are the risks of investing in VMC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 5.0/10.

Is VMC overvalued or undervalued?

Vulcan Materials Company (Holdi trades at a P/E of 36.0 (forward 28.0). TrendMatrix value score: 3.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VMC?

28 analysts cover VMC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $327.

What does Vulcan Materials Company (Holdi do?Company operates primarily in the U.S. and is the nation's largest supplier of construction aggregates (mainly crushed...

Company operates primarily in the U.S. and is the nation's largest supplier of construction aggregates (mainly crushed stone, sand and gravel) and a major producer of aggregates-intensive downstream products such as asphalt mix and ready-mixed concrete. Delivered by trucks, ships, barges and trains, we provide the materials needed for the infrastructure that maintains and expands the U.S. economy.

Related stocks: CX (Cemex, S.A.B. de C.V. Sponsored) · MLM (Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.) · KNF (Knife Riv Holding Co.) · CRH (CRH PLC) · EXP (Eagle Materials Inc)
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