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Vulcan Materials Company (Holdi (VMC) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Building Materials

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $261.80 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Company operates primarily in the U.S. and is the nation's largest supplier of construction aggregates (mainly crushed stone, sand and gravel) and a major producer of aggregates-intensive downstream products such as asphalt mix and ready-mixed concrete. Delivered by trucks,... Read more

$261.80+11.1% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#9 of 12 Building Materials
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield0.69%
IncomeYield0.78%(5y avg 0.78%)Payout23.58%sustainable
Stop $257.80Target $295.93(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$328.81+25.6%21 analysts
$295.93our TP
$261.80price
$328.81mean
$198
$365

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $261.80 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Vulcan Materials Company (Holdi

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3)
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)31.6
P/E (Fwd)24.6
Mkt Cap$34.6B
EV/EBITDA16.9
Profit Mgn13.8%
ROE13.5%
Rev Growth7.4%
Beta1.09
Dividend0.78%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.91bearish
IV37%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
3.1
Capitulation risk (RSI 30, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
30 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $265.77Resistance $306.30

Price Targets

$258
$296
A.Upside+13.0%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VMC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $261.80 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $257.80. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VMC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $295.93 (+11.1% upside). Prior stop was $257.80. Stop-loss: $257.80.

What are the risks of investing in VMC?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is VMC overvalued or undervalued?

Vulcan Materials Company (Holdi trades at a P/E of 31.6 (forward 24.6). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VMC?

28 analysts cover VMC with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $329.

What does Vulcan Materials Company (Holdi do?Company operates primarily in the U.S. and is the nation's largest supplier of construction aggregates (mainly crushed...

Company operates primarily in the U.S. and is the nation's largest supplier of construction aggregates (mainly crushed stone, sand and gravel) and a major producer of aggregates-intensive downstream products such as asphalt mix and ready-mixed concrete. Delivered by trucks, ships, barges and trains, we provide the materials needed for the infrastructure that maintains and expands the U.S. economy.

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