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VMCVulcan Materials Company (HoldiSell4.8·$252.40
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Vulcan Materials shows strong positive price momentum with volume accumulation and a bullish technical setup, but two of the last four quarters missed earnings estimates, the stock trades at a premium valuation with a forward price-to-earnings of 27x, and free cash flow represents only 22% of net income, raising earnings quality concerns.

Thesis pillars

  • Positive Price Momentum Accumulation→Stable
  • Premium Valuation Low Free Cashflow→Stable
  • Elevated Put Call Options Positioning↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Vulcan Materials Company (Holdi (VMC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Building Materials

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $252.40: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Weak overall score: 4.8/10.

Company operates primarily in the U.S. and is the nation's largest supplier of construction aggregates (mainly crushed stone, sand and gravel) and a major producer of aggregates-intensive downstream products such as asphalt mix and ready-mixed concrete. Delivered by trucks,... Read more

$252.40+11.1% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#12 of 14 Building Materials
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.69%
IncomeYield0.85%(5y avg 0.76%)Payout23.82%sustainable
Stop $239.76Target $280.29(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$311.43+23.4%23 analysts
$280.29our TP
$252.40price
$311.43mean
$238
$365

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $252.40: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Weak overall score: 4.8/10. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-16
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202614d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Weak overall score: 4.8/10
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)28.5
P/E (Fwd)23.2
Mkt Cap$31.3B
EV/EBITDA15.4
Profit Mgn13.7%
ROE13.2%
Rev Growth2.5%
Beta1.05
Dividend0.85%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C4.27bearish
IV68%elevated
Max Pain$165-34.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.2
52w Position
5.3

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.5
Revenue Growth
3.1

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.7
Value Rank
2.1
Quality Rank
6.1
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 14d<=14d (soft)Momentum 6.6>=5.5A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
60 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $237.03Resistance $252.70

Price Targets

$240
$280
A.Upside+11.1%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts30
Consensus3.9/5
Avg Target$311

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (14d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VMC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $252.40: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Weak overall score: 4.8/10. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Prior stop was $239.76. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VMC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $280.29 (+11.1% upside). Prior stop was $239.76. Stop-loss: $239.76.

What are the risks of investing in VMC?

Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Weak overall score: 4.8/10; Weak growth.

Is VMC overvalued or undervalued?

Vulcan Materials Company (Holdi trades at a P/E of 28.5 (forward 23.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VMC?

30 analysts cover VMC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $311.

What does Vulcan Materials Company (Holdi do?Company operates primarily in the U.S. and is the nation's largest supplier of construction aggregates (mainly crushed...

Company operates primarily in the U.S. and is the nation's largest supplier of construction aggregates (mainly crushed stone, sand and gravel) and a major producer of aggregates-intensive downstream products such as asphalt mix and ready-mixed concrete. Delivered by trucks, ships, barges and trains, we provide the materials needed for the infrastructure that maintains and expands the U.S. economy.

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