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VMCVulcan Materials Company (HoldiHold5.2·$245.00
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Vulcan Materials shows strong positive price momentum with volume accumulation and a bullish technical setup, but two of the last four quarters missed earnings estimates, the stock trades at a premium valuation with a forward price-to-earnings of 27x, and free cash flow represents only 22% of net income, raising earnings quality concerns.

Thesis pillars

  • Positive Price Momentum Accumulation↑Improving
  • Premium Valuation Low Free Cashflow→Stable
  • Elevated Put Call Options Positioning↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Vulcan Materials Company (Holdi (VMC) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Building Materials

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $245.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Weak growth.

Company operates primarily in the U.S. and is the nation's largest supplier of construction aggregates (mainly crushed stone, sand and gravel) and a major producer of aggregates-intensive downstream products such as asphalt mix and ready-mixed concrete. Delivered by trucks,... Read more

$245.00+18.2% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#11 of 14 Building Materials
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.69%
IncomeYield0.85%(5y avg 0.77%)Payout23.82%sustainable
Stop $233.47Target $289.60(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.6:1
Analyst target$321.78+31.3%23 analysts
$289.60our TP
$245.00price
$321.78mean
$365

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $245.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 34d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202634d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Risks
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Weak growth
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)28.8
P/E (Fwd)22.7
Mkt Cap$31.3B
EV/EBITDA15.4
Profit Mgn13.7%
ROE13.2%
Rev Growth2.5%
Beta1.05
Dividend0.85%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C2.91bearish
IV39%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.5
Revenue Growth
3.1

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.7
Value Rank
2.5
Quality Rank
6.1
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5A.R:R 3.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 34d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
30 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $240.69Resistance $278.23

Price Targets

$233
$290
A.Upside+18.2%
A.R:R3.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! News modifier +2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (34d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VMC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $245.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $289.60 (+18.2%), stop $233.47 (−4.9%), A.R:R 3.6:1. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VMC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $289.60 (+18.2% upside). Target $289.60 (+18.2%), stop $233.47 (−4.9%), A.R:R 3.6:1. Stop-loss: $233.47.

What are the risks of investing in VMC?

Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Weak growth; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is VMC overvalued or undervalued?

Vulcan Materials Company (Holdi trades at a P/E of 28.8 (forward 22.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about VMC?

30 analysts cover VMC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $322.

What does Vulcan Materials Company (Holdi do?Company operates primarily in the U.S. and is the nation's largest supplier of construction aggregates (mainly crushed...

Company operates primarily in the U.S. and is the nation's largest supplier of construction aggregates (mainly crushed stone, sand and gravel) and a major producer of aggregates-intensive downstream products such as asphalt mix and ready-mixed concrete. Delivered by trucks, ships, barges and trains, we provide the materials needed for the infrastructure that maintains and expands the U.S. economy.

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