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SellModerate Confidence

Thesis pillars

  • Confirmed Downtrend Bear Rally↑Improving
  • Price At Analyst Target↓Deteriorating
  • Unreliable Earnings Record↑Improving
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 18, 2026

Full reasoning →

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Amrize Ltd (AMRZ) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Building Materials

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $44.15 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).

Amrize Ltd, spun off from Holcim in June 2025, sells cement, aggregates, ready-mix concrete and asphalt (Building Materials) plus advanced roofing and wall systems (Building Envelope) to more than 23,000 customers across North American infrastructure, commercial and residential... Read more

$44.15-8.0% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#12 of 14 Building Materials
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.97%
IncomeYield1.00%Payout0.00%sustainable
Stop $41.49Analyst target $40.61(reached)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst consensus$45.12+2.2%19 analysts with price targets
$44.15price
$45.12mean
$32
$55

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $44.15 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 82. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 104d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Amrize Ltd

About Amrize Ltd

Amrize Ltd operates more than 1,000 production sites across the United States, Canada, Colombia, Switzerland, and Jamaica, serving over 23,000 customers with products spanning cement, aggregates, ready-mix concrete, asphalt, and advanced roofing and wall systems — completing its spin-off from Holcim on June 23, 2025. Building Materials and Building Envelope are the company's two reportable segments, together addressing North American infrastructure, commercial and residential new construction as well as repair and refurbishment activities. The company employs more than 19,000 people, approximately 6,200 of whom work under collective bargaining agreements.

Amrize earns revenue across two distinct cost and competitive structures. Building Materials derives income from cement, aggregates and ready-mix concrete sold to home builders, commercial builders, contractors and government authorities; the cement market is highly localized due to high transportation costs relative to product price, with Cemex, Buzzi-Unicem, Heidelberg Materials and CRH as principal U.S. competitors. Building Envelope — which grew through acquisitions including Duro-Last (2023) and Malarkey (2022) — sells branded roofing and wall systems through a few large distributors into both new construction and the more recession-resistant repair and refurbishment market. The Building Envelope segment depends on petroleum-based products, chemicals, resins, asphalt, and glass fiber, making raw material cost volatility a meaningful input risk. In Canada, the company's cement operations are subject to a cap-and-trade carbon tax applied directly to oil and gas emissions, creating a jurisdiction-specific cost layer not present in its U.S. facilities.

Show full overview

Energy and fuel costs represent the most quantifiable input risk across both segments: diesel fuel, natural gas, electricity, coal, petroleum coke and liquid asphalt are all listed as material cost inputs in the 10-K. If third-party energy suppliers fail to provide contractual quantities, the company may need to source at increased cost; any government tightening of clean-energy obligations or excise taxes on carbon emissions exposes the company to higher operating costs. In March 2026, Amrize appointed Baris Oran as Chief Financial Officer, effective April 1, 2026, succeeding Ian Johnston who remained with the company as a senior advisor through the transition.

See also: Basic Materials · Building Materials

From Amrize Ltd's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Nov 4, 2026

Recent Developments — Amrize Ltd

Latest news

Latest item Nov 4, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:59:09Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Feb 17, 2027104d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8)
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.8
P/E (Fwd)16.9
Mkt Cap$23.5B
EV/EBITDA10.4
Profit Mgn10.2%
ROE9.7%
Rev Growth2.2%
Beta—
Dividend1.00%
Analysts with ratings30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C4.35bearish
IV46%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSupplierpetroleum-based products and commodities (Building Envelope)
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our Building Envelope segment requires a different set of raw materials, with a large dependency on petroleum-based products, chemicals, resins, asphalt, glass fiber, granules'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-31Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Baris Oran appointed CFO of Amrize, effective April 1, 2026, succeeding Ian Johnston who steps down and remains as senior advisor for a smooth transition. Oran most recently served as CFO of GXO Logistics from August 2021 to March 2026. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.5
52w Position
3.6
Gap
4.0

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.8
Revenue Growth
3.0

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
4.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Dividend Safety
7.7
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend aristocrat: 1.0% yield
GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 104d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
82 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $35.78Resistance $44.57

Price Targets

A.Upside-8.0%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-02-17 (104d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMRZ stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $44.15 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 82. Prior stop was $41.49. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AMRZ stock price target?

Analyst target $40.61 reached (−8.0% from $44.15); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $41.49. Stop-loss: $41.49.

What are the risks of investing in AMRZ?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Is AMRZ overvalued or undervalued?

Amrize Ltd trades at a P/E of 19.8 (forward 16.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AMRZ?

30 analysts rate AMRZ, with a consensus score of 3.7/5. 19 analysts publish price targets averaging $45.

What does Amrize Ltd do?Amrize Ltd, spun off from Holcim in June 2025, sells cement, aggregates, ready-mix concrete and asphalt (Building...

Amrize Ltd, spun off from Holcim in June 2025, sells cement, aggregates, ready-mix concrete and asphalt (Building Materials) plus advanced roofing and wall systems (Building Envelope) to more than 23,000 customers across North American infrastructure, commercial and residential construction markets. The company operates more than 1,000 sites with over 19,000 employees across the U.S., Canada, Colombia, Switzerland, and Jamaica.

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