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Amrize Ltd (AMRZ) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Building Materials

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $48.49 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Amrize Ltd (spun off from Holcim in June 2025) is a North American building solutions company with two segments: Building Materials (cement, aggregates, ready-mix concrete) and Building Envelope (roofing and wall systems including Duro-Last, Elevate, and Malarkey). The company... Read more

$48.49+21.1% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#12 of 12 Building Materials
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.99%
IncomeYield0.22%Payout0.00%sustainable
Stop $46.61Target $58.50(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.9:1
Analyst target$65.00+34.1%21 analysts
$58.50our TP
$48.49price
$65.00mean
$70

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $48.49 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Amrize Ltd

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Analyst upside: 21%
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1)
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.8
P/E (Fwd)15.7
Mkt Cap$27.5B
EV/EBITDA11.9
Profit Mgn9.7%
ROE10.1%
Rev Growth4.7%
Beta
Dividend0.22%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C9.67bearish
IV92%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-31Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Baris Oran appointed CFO effective April 1, 2026. Ian Johnston stepping down as CFO, remaining as senior advisor for transition. Oran previously served as CFO at GXO Logistics.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-20Item 4.01HIGH
    Auditor change: Ernst & Young AG (Switzerland) dismissed and Ernst & Young LLP (U.S.) engaged as independent registered public accounting firm for year ending Dec 31, 2026, effective February 19, 2026. EY Switzerland continues as statutory auditor under Swiss law.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-12Item 5.02LOW
    Theresa Drew resigned from the Board on Feb 11, 2026; no disagreement cited. Robert Rivkin appointed Audit Committee Chair; Holli Ladhani appointed to Audit Committee as financial expert.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
3.0
Volume
3.8
Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.7
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Dividend Safety
6.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MDividend: 22.0%
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5A.R:R 2.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
28 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $48.05Resistance $58.43

Price Targets

$47
$59
A.Upside+20.6%
A.R:R2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMRZ stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $48.49 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $46.61. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AMRZ stock price target?

Take-profit target: $58.50 (+21.1% upside). Prior stop was $46.61. Stop-loss: $46.61.

What are the risks of investing in AMRZ?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is AMRZ overvalued or undervalued?

Amrize Ltd trades at a P/E of 23.8 (forward 15.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AMRZ?

26 analysts cover AMRZ with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $65.

What does Amrize Ltd do?Amrize Ltd (spun off from Holcim in June 2025) is a North American building solutions company with two segments:...

Amrize Ltd (spun off from Holcim in June 2025) is a North American building solutions company with two segments: Building Materials (cement, aggregates, ready-mix concrete) and Building Envelope (roofing and wall systems including Duro-Last, Elevate, and Malarkey). The company serves 23,000+ customers across North America with 19,000+ employees across 1,000+ sites.

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