Value
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.5 |
| P/S | 7.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.4 |
| PEG | 3.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 28.0x
- ▸PEG: 2.63
VMC · Why this verdict
Why Vulcan Materials Company (Holdi (VMC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Rising on-balance volume, a momentum continuation setup with RSI at 67, bullish MACD, and a price above the 200-day moving average indicate that institutional buyers are accumulating shares despite the broader valuation concerns. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume continues to rise and the stock stays above its 200-day moving average for the next 6 months. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum continuation setups near 52-week highs in premium-valued industrials have historically preceded mean reversion; high on-balance volume near the top often reflects late-cycle distribution. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings ratio of 27x and free cash flow representing only 22% of net income together suggest the stock is priced for perfection at a time when earnings quality is below average, leaving limited margin of safety. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion improves above 50% of net income within the next 2 annual reporting periods, validating the premium valuation. | →Stable |
| CounterBuilding materials companies with infrastructure demand tailwinds often sustain premium multiples; Vulcan's aggregates business has natural pricing power that can justify the valuation over a cycle. | ||
A put-to-call ratio of 1.33 and the stock trading above its maximum pain level of $210 suggest meaningful hedging activity in the options market, with 62% implied volatility reflecting uncertainty about the near-term price direction. Options | Put-to-call ratio falls below 0.9 within the next 6 months, indicating a reduction in defensive options positioning. | →Stable |
| CounterA put-to-call ratio of 1.33, while elevated, is not extreme, and may reflect routine portfolio hedging by large holders rather than outright bearish conviction. | ||
The last four quarters produced 2 beats and 2 misses, with the misses concentrated in the February 2026 quarter at minus 19%, suggesting uneven execution that introduces meaningful uncertainty into forward earnings reliability. Earnings | Earnings surprise stays positive in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters, resolving the mixed recent track record. | →Stable |
| CounterThe two beats included a 22% positive surprise in April 2026, and the full four-quarter average surprise remains modestly positive at 1.1%, indicating the business is roughly tracking consensus. | ||
Rising on-balance volume, a momentum continuation setup with RSI at 67, bullish MACD, and a price above the 200-day moving average indicate that institutional buyers are accumulating shares despite the broader valuation concerns.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume continues to rise and the stock stays above its 200-day moving average for the next 6 months.
CounterMomentum continuation setups near 52-week highs in premium-valued industrials have historically preceded mean reversion; high on-balance volume near the top often reflects late-cycle distribution.
A forward price-to-earnings ratio of 27x and free cash flow representing only 22% of net income together suggest the stock is priced for perfection at a time when earnings quality is below average, leaving limited margin of safety.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion improves above 50% of net income within the next 2 annual reporting periods, validating the premium valuation.
CounterBuilding materials companies with infrastructure demand tailwinds often sustain premium multiples; Vulcan's aggregates business has natural pricing power that can justify the valuation over a cycle.
A put-to-call ratio of 1.33 and the stock trading above its maximum pain level of $210 suggest meaningful hedging activity in the options market, with 62% implied volatility reflecting uncertainty about the near-term price direction.
→StableOptions
- Expectation
- Put-to-call ratio falls below 0.9 within the next 6 months, indicating a reduction in defensive options positioning.
CounterA put-to-call ratio of 1.33, while elevated, is not extreme, and may reflect routine portfolio hedging by large holders rather than outright bearish conviction.
The last four quarters produced 2 beats and 2 misses, with the misses concentrated in the February 2026 quarter at minus 19%, suggesting uneven execution that introduces meaningful uncertainty into forward earnings reliability.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise stays positive in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters, resolving the mixed recent track record.
CounterThe two beats included a 22% positive surprise in April 2026, and the full four-quarter average surprise remains modestly positive at 1.1%, indicating the business is roughly tracking consensus.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Vulcan Materials shows strong positive price momentum with volume accumulation and a bullish technical setup, but two of the last four quarters missed earnings estimates, the stock trades at a premium valuation with a forward price-to-earnings of 27x, and free cash flow represents only 22% of net income, raising earnings quality concerns.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.5 |
| ROA | 4.0 |
| Gross margin | 1.5 |
| Op margin | 6.2 |
| Net margin | 6.9 |
| Current ratio | 8.8 |
| FCF quality | 1.8 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 22% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.3 |
| EPS growth | 7.9 |
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 3.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 2.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.1 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.50 (n=1)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $646,545 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.5 |
| quality rank | 5.7 |
| growth rank | 3.6 |
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.1 |
| support resistance | 3.5 |
| 52w position | 8.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.4 |
| days to cover | 5.9 |
| volatility | 3.9 |
| put call | 8.0 |
| implied vol | 6.0 |
| beta | 6.8 |
| debt equity | 7.3 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
Catalyst
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 69.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:26d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.28
Upside
-3.1%
Downside
11.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 6.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.28 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 6.4, Growth at 6.1, and Sentiment at 5.5; the weakest are Value at 3.9, Momentum at 4.1, and Peer rank at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.28 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Positive Price Momentum Accumulation
Trip ifOn-balance volume declines for more than 40 consecutive trading days, confirming a shift from accumulation to distribution.
- P2Mixed Earnings Execution Record
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, extending the mixed track record into a miss-dominated pattern.
- P3Premium Valuation Low Free Cashflow
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings rises above 35x, indicating valuation has expanded further ahead of earnings delivery.
- P4Elevated Put Call Options Positioning
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio rises above 2.0, indicating a meaningful increase in bearish options positioning.