Value
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.8 |
| P/S | 7.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.3 |
| PEG | 4.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 28.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.90
VMC · Why this verdict
Why Vulcan Materials Company (Holdi (VMC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.5/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Vulcan Materials shows strong positive price momentum with volume accumulation and a bullish technical setup, but two of the last four quarters missed earnings estimates, the stock trades at a premium valuation with a forward price-to-earnings of 27x, and free cash flow represents only 22% of net income, raising earnings quality concerns.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Rising on-balance volume, a momentum continuation setup with RSI at 67, bullish MACD, and a price above the 200-day moving average indicate that institutional buyers are accumulating shares despite the broader valuation concerns. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume continues to rise and the stock stays above its 200-day moving average for the next 6 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMomentum continuation setups near 52-week highs in premium-valued industrials have historically preceded mean reversion; high on-balance volume near the top often reflects late-cycle distribution. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings ratio of 27x and free cash flow representing only 22% of net income together suggest the stock is priced for perfection at a time when earnings quality is below average, leaving limited margin of safety. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion improves above 50% of net income within the next 2 annual reporting periods, validating the premium valuation. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBuilding materials companies with infrastructure demand tailwinds often sustain premium multiples; Vulcan's aggregates business has natural pricing power that can justify the valuation over a cycle. | ||
A put-to-call ratio of 1.33 and the stock trading above its maximum pain level of $210 suggest meaningful hedging activity in the options market, with 62% implied volatility reflecting uncertainty about the near-term price direction. Options | Put-to-call ratio falls below 0.9 within the next 6 months, indicating a reduction in defensive options positioning. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA put-to-call ratio of 1.33, while elevated, is not extreme, and may reflect routine portfolio hedging by large holders rather than outright bearish conviction. | ||
The last four quarters produced 2 beats and 2 misses, with the misses concentrated in the February 2026 quarter at minus 19%, suggesting uneven execution that introduces meaningful uncertainty into forward earnings reliability. Earnings | Earnings surprise stays positive in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters, resolving the mixed recent track record. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe two beats included a 22% positive surprise in April 2026, and the full four-quarter average surprise remains modestly positive at 1.1%, indicating the business is roughly tracking consensus. | ||
Rising on-balance volume, a momentum continuation setup with RSI at 67, bullish MACD, and a price above the 200-day moving average indicate that institutional buyers are accumulating shares despite the broader valuation concerns.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume continues to rise and the stock stays above its 200-day moving average for the next 6 months.
CounterMomentum continuation setups near 52-week highs in premium-valued industrials have historically preceded mean reversion; high on-balance volume near the top often reflects late-cycle distribution.
A forward price-to-earnings ratio of 27x and free cash flow representing only 22% of net income together suggest the stock is priced for perfection at a time when earnings quality is below average, leaving limited margin of safety.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion improves above 50% of net income within the next 2 annual reporting periods, validating the premium valuation.
CounterBuilding materials companies with infrastructure demand tailwinds often sustain premium multiples; Vulcan's aggregates business has natural pricing power that can justify the valuation over a cycle.
A put-to-call ratio of 1.33 and the stock trading above its maximum pain level of $210 suggest meaningful hedging activity in the options market, with 62% implied volatility reflecting uncertainty about the near-term price direction.
↓DeterioratingOptions
- Expectation
- Put-to-call ratio falls below 0.9 within the next 6 months, indicating a reduction in defensive options positioning.
CounterA put-to-call ratio of 1.33, while elevated, is not extreme, and may reflect routine portfolio hedging by large holders rather than outright bearish conviction.
The last four quarters produced 2 beats and 2 misses, with the misses concentrated in the February 2026 quarter at minus 19%, suggesting uneven execution that introduces meaningful uncertainty into forward earnings reliability.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise stays positive in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters, resolving the mixed recent track record.
CounterThe two beats included a 22% positive surprise in April 2026, and the full four-quarter average surprise remains modestly positive at 1.1%, indicating the business is roughly tracking consensus.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3 |
| ROA | 3.9 |
| Gross margin | 1.5 |
| Op margin | 9.6 |
| Net margin | 6.9 |
| Current ratio | 5.3 |
| FCF quality | 5.0 |
| Moat | 4.4 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 64% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
1.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.3 |
| EPS growth | 1.9 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -5%
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.9 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 2.6 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 82)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 82 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.4 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.4 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $4,436,604 (0.012% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.8 |
| quality rank | 6.1 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.9 |
| support resistance | 1.1 |
| 52w position | 7.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 5.6 |
| put call | 4.1 |
| implied vol | 7.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 7.2 |
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.5 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:105d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.8>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.08
Upside
-1.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 82
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 6.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.08 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 6.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.7, and Sentiment at 6.5; the weakest are Growth at 1.6, Peer rank at 3.0, and Technical at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.08 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Positive Price Momentum Accumulation
Trip ifOn-balance volume declines for more than 40 consecutive trading days, confirming a shift from accumulation to distribution.
- P2Mixed Earnings Execution Record
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, extending the mixed track record into a miss-dominated pattern.
- P3Premium Valuation Low Free Cashflow
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings rises above 35x, indicating valuation has expanded further ahead of earnings delivery.
- P4Elevated Put Call Options Positioning
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio rises above 2.0, indicating a meaningful increase in bearish options positioning.