Valero Energy has delivered four consecutive earnings beats averaging 25% above consensus and maintains a strong financial-health score, but weakening price momentum, falling on-balance volume, and a stock trading above its analyst target combine to limit the near-term investment case in a challenging refining margin environment.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Strong Financial Health Score↑Improving
- Negative Price Momentum Signal↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Wait for pullback to $270.44. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $307.54. Engine's entry $270.44 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.0% away).
Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and internationally. It operates through three... Read more
Wait for pullback to $270.44. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $307.54. Engine's entry $270.44 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.0% away). Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.60, news boost analyst cluster(3), earnings proximity 80d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-04Recent Developments — Valero Energy Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Riposte Capital LLC Makes New Investment in Valero Energy Corporation $VLO - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Is Valero Energy (VLO) Undervalued Or Are Earnings Sending A Warning? - Sahm — Sahm positive
- NEWS Narwhal Capital Management Decreases Stock Position in Valero Energy Corporation $VLO - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS Is Valero Energy (VLO) Undervalued Following Strong Cash Flow And Capital Returns? - simplywall.st — simplywall.st positive
- NEWS Wells Fargo Sticks to Their Buy Rating for Valero Energy (VLO) - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail positive
Generated 2026-08-04T07:03:28Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMSupplierMid-Continent corn10-K Item 1A: 'Our Ethanol segment relies on corn sourced from local farmers and commercial elevators in the Mid-Continent region of the U.S.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-08Item 5.02MEDIUMSVP Product Supply, Trading and Wholesale Eric A. Fisher informed Valero of intent to retire on or about July 1, 2026. Plans to transition responsibilities internally per Valero's succession plan. No external successor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $270.44. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $307.54. Engine's entry $270.44 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.0% away). Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $312.63 (+1.7%), stop $252.29 (−21.9%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $312.63 (-10.9% upside). Target $312.63 (+1.7%), stop $252.29 (−21.9%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Stop-loss: $252.29.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.0% away).
Valero Energy Corporation trades at a P/E of 13.1 (forward 11.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
25 analysts cover VLO with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $304.
What does Valero Energy Corporation do?Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels...
Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. The company produces California Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CARBOB) and Conventional Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CBOB) gasolines, CARB diesel, diesel, jet fuel, heating oil, and asphalt; feedstocks; aromatics; sulfur and residual fuel oil; intermediate oils; and sulfur, sweet, and sour crude oils. It sells its refined products through wholesale rack and bulk markets; and through outlets under the Valero, Beacon, Diamond Shamrock, Shamrock, Ultramar, and Texaco brands. The company also owns and operates renewable diesel and ethanol plants, as well as produces and sells renewable diesel, renewable naphtha, and neat sustainable aviation fuel under the Diamond Green Diesel brand name. In addition, it offers ethanol and various co-products, including dry distillers grains, syrup, and inedible distillers corn oil to animal feed customers. The company was formerly known as Valero Refining and Marketing Company and changed its name to Valero Energy Corporation in August 1997. Valero Energy Corporation was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.