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VFSVinFast Auto Ltd.Sell5.6·$3.06-0.94%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

VinFast Auto is a Vietnamese electric vehicle startup with 42% revenue growth and 91% analyst upside, but it has missed earnings in all four recent quarters, burns cash with negative free cash flow, carries leverage at 5.5x debt-to-equity, and has a Piotroski F-Score of just 2/9, placing it firmly below minimum quality thresholds.

Thesis pillars

  • Revenue Growth Ev ExpansionStable
  • Cash Burn Piotroski Quality FloorStable
  • High Leverage Margin CompressionStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

VinFast Auto Ltd. (VFS) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.06: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 8.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

VinFast Auto Ltd. engages in the design and manufacture of electric vehicles (EV), e-scooters, and e-buses in Vietnam, Canada, and the United States. The company operates through three segments: namely Car, E-scooters and Ebus. It offers the design, development, manufacturing... Read more

$3.06+67.4% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#4 of 17 Auto Manufacturers
QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield-741409.43%
Stop $2.86Target $5.14(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 8.9:1
Analyst target$6.05+97.7%4 analysts
$5.14our TP
$3.06price
$6.05mean
$8

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.06: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 8.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 60d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06

Recent Developments — VinFast Auto Ltd.

Generated 2026-07-06T08:31:36Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Sep 3, 202660d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin 1.1%), High leverage (D/E 5.5), Material insider selling (24 sells, 0.06% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-3.0
Mkt Cap$7.2B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn-113.2%
ROE
Rev Growth41.7%
Beta0.92
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV101%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Current Ratio
1.9
Piotroski F
2.2
Moat
5.5
Cash-burning (FCF negative)Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4M

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Volume
1.8
Rsi
4.5
Macd
6.6
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 8.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 60d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Speculative
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $2.90Resistance $3.41

Price Targets

$3
$5
A.Upside+68.0%
A.R:R8.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin 1.1%), High leverage (D/E 5.5), Material insider selling (24 sells, 0.06% of cap)
! momentum at 3.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-09-03 (60d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VFS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.06: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 8.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $2.86. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VFS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $5.14 (+67.4% upside). Prior stop was $2.86. Stop-loss: $2.86.

What are the risks of investing in VFS?

Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin 1.1%), High leverage (D/E 5.5), Material insider selling (24 sells, 0.06% of cap).

Is VFS overvalued or undervalued?

VinFast Auto Ltd. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -3.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VFS?

9 analysts cover VFS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $6.

What does VinFast Auto Ltd. do?VinFast Auto Ltd. engages in the design and manufacture of electric vehicles (EV), e-scooters, and e-buses in Vietnam,...

VinFast Auto Ltd. engages in the design and manufacture of electric vehicles (EV), e-scooters, and e-buses in Vietnam, Canada, and the United States. The company operates through three segments: namely Car, E-scooters and Ebus. It offers the design, development, manufacturing and sales of e-scooters and related battery lease and battery charging service for cars, e-scooters, and Ebus. The company offers electric SUV, mini car EV, mid-size pickup electric truck, 7-seater MPV, E-bus, E-scooter, electric bike, and battery technology and solutions. The company has a strategic collaboration with Nvidia for the development of a next-generation level 4 autonomous driving program. VinFast Auto Ltd. is based in Hai phong, Vietnam. VinFast Auto Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Vingroup Joint Stock Company.

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