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UTHRUnited Therapeutics CorporationHold5.2·$490.16-0.02%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

United Therapeutics generates 41% net margins and ranks best-in-class on margins among specialty pharmaceutical peers, but severe product concentration where Tyvaso DPI and Nebulized Tyvaso together account for 59% of revenue, combined with 3 earnings misses in 4 quarters, makes the current risk profile unfavorable for new positions.

Thesis pillars

  • Best In Class Pharma MarginsStable
  • Product Concentration TyvasoImproving
  • Earnings Miss TrajectoryImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

United Therapeutics Corporation (UTHR) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5QualityModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $490.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Tyvaso DPI and Nebulized Tyvaso (59.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Accredo and CVS Specialty.

United Therapeutics markets five therapies for pulmonary arterial hypertension and rare diseases — Tyvaso DPI, Nebulized Tyvaso, Remodulin, Orenitram, and Unituxin — generating approximately $3.16 billion in total revenues in 2025. Tyvaso DPI and Nebulized Tyvaso together... Read more

$490.16+17.9% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#31 of 44 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.65%
Stop $462.70Target $577.97(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.2:1
Analyst target$664.33+35.5%12 analysts
$577.97our TP
$490.16price
$664.33mean
$725

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $490.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Tyvaso DPI and Nebulized Tyvaso (59.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Accredo and CVS Specialty. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 54d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and clean insider activity. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 28, 202654d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.2 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Tyvaso DPI and Nebulized Tyvaso (59.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: Accredo and CVS Specialty
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.6
P/E (Fwd)16.3
Mkt Cap$21.0B
EV/EBITDA12.3
Profit Mgn41.6%
ROE19.3%
Rev Growth-1.9%
Beta0.56
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.22bullish
IV45%normal
Max Pain$680+38.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductTyvaso DPI and Nebulized Tyvaso59%
    10-K Item 1: 'combined Tyvaso DPI and Nebulized Tyvaso net product sales, representing 59 percent...of our total revenues for the years ended December 31, 2025'
  • HIGHCustomerAccredo and CVS Specialty
    10-K Item 1A: 'we derive substantially all our treprostinil-based revenues from sales to two distributors, Accredo and CVS Specialty'
  • HIGHSupplierMannKind Corporation
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely entirely on MannKind to manufacture Tyvaso DPI finished drug product and inhalers for us, with no plans to develop an alternate or backup supply arrangement'
  • HIGHSupplierDEKA
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely entirely on DEKA and its affiliates to manufacture the Remunity and RemunityPRO Pumps'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Revenue shrinking — -1.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.0
Earnings Growth
4.7
Declining revenue: -2%
GatesMomentum 1.5<4.5INSIDER 1.44%=HEAVYA.R:R 3.2 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 54d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $477.01Resistance $540.56

Price Targets

$463
$578
A.Upside+17.9%
A.R:R3.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Insider activity: 1.44%=heavy

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-28 (54d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UTHR stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $490.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Tyvaso DPI and Nebulized Tyvaso (59.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Accredo and CVS Specialty. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $577.97 (+17.9%), stop $462.70 (−5.9%), A.R:R 3.2:1. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UTHR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $577.97 (+17.9% upside). Target $577.97 (+17.9%), stop $462.70 (−5.9%), A.R:R 3.2:1. Stop-loss: $462.70.

What are the risks of investing in UTHR?

Concentration risk — Product: Tyvaso DPI and Nebulized Tyvaso (59.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Accredo and CVS Specialty; Weak growth.

Is UTHR overvalued or undervalued?

United Therapeutics Corporation trades at a P/E of 17.6 (forward 16.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about UTHR?

22 analysts cover UTHR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $664.

What does United Therapeutics Corporation do?United Therapeutics markets five therapies for pulmonary arterial hypertension and rare diseases — Tyvaso DPI,...

United Therapeutics markets five therapies for pulmonary arterial hypertension and rare diseases — Tyvaso DPI, Nebulized Tyvaso, Remodulin, Orenitram, and Unituxin — generating approximately $3.16 billion in total revenues in 2025. Tyvaso DPI and Nebulized Tyvaso together accounted for 59% of revenues; substantially all treprostinil revenues flow through two distributors, Accredo and CVS Specialty, with no FDA-approved backup manufacturing site for Orenitram or Unituxin.

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