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UTHRUnited Therapeutics CorporationSell5.1·$499.73-0.31%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

United Therapeutics generates 41% net margins and ranks best-in-class on margins among specialty pharmaceutical peers, but severe product concentration where Tyvaso DPI and Nebulized Tyvaso together account for 59% of revenue, combined with 3 earnings misses in 4 quarters, makes the current risk profile unfavorable for new positions.

Thesis pillars

  • Best In Class Pharma MarginsStable
  • Product Concentration TyvasoImproving
  • Earnings Miss TrajectoryStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

United Therapeutics Corporation (UTHR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5QualityModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $499.73 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: Tyvaso DPI and Nebulized Tyvaso (59.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Accredo and CVS Specialty.

United Therapeutics markets five therapies for pulmonary arterial hypertension and rare diseases — Tyvaso DPI, Nebulized Tyvaso, Remodulin, Orenitram, and Unituxin — generating approximately $3.16 billion in total revenues in 2025. Tyvaso DPI and Nebulized Tyvaso together... Read more

$499.73+13.7% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#30 of 41 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.60%
Stop $476.08Target $568.31(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.4:1
Analyst target$653.23+30.7%13 analysts
$568.31our TP
$499.73price
$653.23mean
$725

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $499.73 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: Tyvaso DPI and Nebulized Tyvaso (59.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Accredo and CVS Specialty. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 74d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and clean insider activity. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 28, 202674d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Tyvaso DPI and Nebulized Tyvaso (59.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: Accredo and CVS Specialty
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.0
P/E (Fwd)16.6
Mkt Cap$21.4B
EV/EBITDA12.6
Profit Mgn41.6%
ROE19.3%
Rev Growth-1.9%
Beta0.56
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.37bearish
IV52%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductTyvaso DPI and Nebulized Tyvaso59%
    10-K Item 1: 'combined Tyvaso DPI and Nebulized Tyvaso net product sales, representing 59 percent...of our total revenues for the years ended December 31, 2025'
  • HIGHCustomerAccredo and CVS Specialty
    10-K Item 1A: 'we derive substantially all our treprostinil-based revenues from sales to two distributors, Accredo and CVS Specialty'
  • HIGHSupplierMannKind Corporation
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely entirely on MannKind to manufacture Tyvaso DPI finished drug product and inhalers for us, with no plans to develop an alternate or backup supply arrangement'
  • HIGHSupplierDEKA
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely entirely on DEKA and its affiliates to manufacture the Remunity and RemunityPRO Pumps'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
2.7
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Revenue shrinking — -1.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.0
Earnings Growth
4.7
Declining revenue: -2%
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5INSIDER 1.63%=EXTREMEA.R:R 2.4 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 74d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
32 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $490.80Resistance $541.25

Price Targets

$476
$568
A.Upside+13.7%
A.R:R2.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Insider activity: 1.63%=extreme

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-28 (74d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UTHR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $499.73 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: Tyvaso DPI and Nebulized Tyvaso (59.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Accredo and CVS Specialty. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $476.08. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UTHR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $568.31 (+13.7% upside). Prior stop was $476.08. Stop-loss: $476.08.

What are the risks of investing in UTHR?

Concentration risk — Product: Tyvaso DPI and Nebulized Tyvaso (59.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Accredo and CVS Specialty; Weak growth.

Is UTHR overvalued or undervalued?

United Therapeutics Corporation trades at a P/E of 18.0 (forward 16.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UTHR?

22 analysts cover UTHR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $653.

What does United Therapeutics Corporation do?United Therapeutics markets five therapies for pulmonary arterial hypertension and rare diseases — Tyvaso DPI,...

United Therapeutics markets five therapies for pulmonary arterial hypertension and rare diseases — Tyvaso DPI, Nebulized Tyvaso, Remodulin, Orenitram, and Unituxin — generating approximately $3.16 billion in total revenues in 2025. Tyvaso DPI and Nebulized Tyvaso together accounted for 59% of revenues; substantially all treprostinil revenues flow through two distributors, Accredo and CVS Specialty, with no FDA-approved backup manufacturing site for Orenitram or Unituxin.

Related stocks: BCRX (BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) · NBIX (Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.) · BHC (Bausch Health Companies Inc.) · KNSA (Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Interna) · SUPN (Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.)
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