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UTHRUnited Therapeutics CorporationHold5.2·$540.03
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

United Therapeutics generates 41% net margins and ranks best-in-class on margins among specialty pharmaceutical peers, but severe product concentration where Tyvaso DPI and Nebulized Tyvaso together account for 59% of revenue, combined with 3 earnings misses in 4 quarters, makes the current risk profile unfavorable for new positions.

Thesis pillars

  • Best In Class Pharma Margins→Stable
  • Product Concentration Tyvaso↓Deteriorating
  • Earnings Miss Trajectory→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

United Therapeutics Corporation (UTHR) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5QualityModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $540.03, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Tyvaso DPI and Nebulized Tyvaso (59.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Accredo and CVS Specialty.

United Therapeutics markets five therapies for pulmonary arterial hypertension and rare diseases — Tyvaso DPI, Nebulized Tyvaso, Remodulin, Orenitram, and Unituxin — generating approximately $3.16 billion in total revenues in 2025. Tyvaso DPI and Nebulized Tyvaso together... Read more

QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.41%
Stop $502.23Target $566.50(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$651.15+20.6%13 analysts
$566.50our TP
$540.03price
$651.15mean
$321
$728

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $540.03, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Tyvaso DPI and Nebulized Tyvaso (59.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Accredo and CVS Specialty. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 28, 202613d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.2 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Tyvaso DPI and Nebulized Tyvaso (59.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: Accredo and CVS Specialty
Thin upside margin: 4.9%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.3
P/E (Fwd)17.8
Mkt Cap$23.2B
EV/EBITDA13.7
Profit Mgn41.6%
ROE19.3%
Rev Growth-1.9%
Beta0.49
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C113.14bearish
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$370-31.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductTyvaso DPI and Nebulized Tyvaso59%
    10-K Item 1: 'combined Tyvaso DPI and Nebulized Tyvaso net product sales, representing 59 percent...of our total revenues for the years ended December 31, 2025'
  • HIGHCustomerAccredo and CVS Specialty
    10-K Item 1A: 'we derive substantially all our treprostinil-based revenues from sales to two distributors, Accredo and CVS Specialty'
  • HIGHSupplierMannKind Corporation
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely entirely on MannKind to manufacture Tyvaso DPI finished drug product and inhalers for us, with no plans to develop an alternate or backup supply arrangement'
  • HIGHSupplierDEKA
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely entirely on DEKA and its affiliates to manufacture the Remunity and RemunityPRO Pumps'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Revenue shrinking — -1.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.0
Earnings Growth
4.7
Declining revenue: -2%
GatesA.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotINSIDER 1.36%=HEAVYEARNINGS PROXIMITY 13d<=14d (soft)Momentum 6.4>=5.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Moderate
RSI
68 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $468.97Resistance $585.79

Price Targets

$502
$567
A.Upside+4.9%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Insider activity: 1.36%=heavy

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-28 (13d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UTHR stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $540.03, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Tyvaso DPI and Nebulized Tyvaso (59.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Accredo and CVS Specialty. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $566.50 (+4.9%), stop $502.23 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.4:1. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UTHR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $566.50 (+4.9% upside). Target $566.50 (+4.9%), stop $502.23 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.4:1. Stop-loss: $502.23.

What are the risks of investing in UTHR?

Concentration risk — Product: Tyvaso DPI and Nebulized Tyvaso (59.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Accredo and CVS Specialty; Thin upside margin: 4.9%.

Is UTHR overvalued or undervalued?

United Therapeutics Corporation trades at a P/E of 19.3 (forward 17.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about UTHR?

22 analysts cover UTHR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $651.

What does United Therapeutics Corporation do?United Therapeutics markets five therapies for pulmonary arterial hypertension and rare diseases — Tyvaso DPI,...

United Therapeutics markets five therapies for pulmonary arterial hypertension and rare diseases — Tyvaso DPI, Nebulized Tyvaso, Remodulin, Orenitram, and Unituxin — generating approximately $3.16 billion in total revenues in 2025. Tyvaso DPI and Nebulized Tyvaso together accounted for 59% of revenues; substantially all treprostinil revenues flow through two distributors, Accredo and CVS Specialty, with no FDA-approved backup manufacturing site for Orenitram or Unituxin.

Related stocks: LQDA (Liquidia Corporation) · NBIX (Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.) · KNSA (Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Interna) · SUPN (Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) · INDV (Indivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc.)
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