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URBNUrban Outfitters, Inc.Hold5.6·$69.97+0.52%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Urban Outfitters has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of its last quarters with an average surprise of 10.6%, and the stock sits in a technical uptrend with positive price momentum, but the current price is essentially at the analyst consensus target with no meaningful upside remaining.

Thesis pillars

  • Valuation Analyst CeilingDeteriorating
  • Perfect Earnings Beat StreakImproving
  • Technical Momentum UptrendDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5QualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $69.97, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 7.1%; Negative momentum.

We are a leading lifestyle products and services company which operates a portfolio of global consumer brands including the Anthropologie, Free People, FP Movement, Urban Outfitters and Nuuly brands. As used in this document, unless otherwise defined, "Anthropologie" refers to... Read more

$69.97+7.1% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#12 of 15 Apparel Retail
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield0.08%
Stop $65.07Target $74.95(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$86.15+23.1%13 analysts
$74.95our TP
$69.97price
$86.15mean
$100

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $69.97, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 7.1%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst cluster(5), earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 26, 202632d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Recent Analyst Cluster(5) detected in news
Risks
Thin upside margin: 7.1%
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.4
P/E (Fwd)10.3
Mkt Cap$6.0B
EV/EBITDA9.0
Profit Mgn7.5%
ROE18.7%
Rev Growth11.4%
Beta1.22
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C30.34bearish
IV53%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.9
Ma Position
2.2
Macd
4.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5A.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(5)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 32d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $65.70Resistance $77.33

Price Targets

$65
$75
A.Upside+7.1%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.9 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-26 (32d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is URBN stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $69.97, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 7.1%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $74.95 (+7.1%), stop $65.07 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.9:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the URBN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $74.95 (+7.1% upside). Target $74.95 (+7.1%), stop $65.07 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.9:1. Stop-loss: $65.07.

What are the risks of investing in URBN?

Thin upside margin: 7.1%; Negative momentum.

Is URBN overvalued or undervalued?

Urban Outfitters, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.4 (forward 10.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about URBN?

20 analysts cover URBN with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $86.

What does Urban Outfitters, Inc. do?We are a leading lifestyle products and services company which operates a portfolio of global consumer brands including...

We are a leading lifestyle products and services company which operates a portfolio of global consumer brands including the Anthropologie, Free People, FP Movement, Urban Outfitters and Nuuly brands. As used in this document, unless otherwise defined, "Anthropologie" refers to our Anthropologie, Terrain and Maeve brands and "Free People" refers to our Free People and FP Movement brands.

Related stocks: BKE (Buckle, Inc. (The)) · CRI (Carter's, Inc.) · BOOT (Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.) · GAP (Gap, Inc. (The)) · AEO (American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.)
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