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UNFIUnited Natural Foods, Inc.Sell4.2·$49.51-1.63%
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United Natural Foods, Inc. (UNFI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Food Distribution

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $49.51: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.41; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

UNFI distributes grocery and non-food products through Natural, Conventional, and Retail segments, operating 52 distribution centers and 75 retail stores (Cub Foods and Shoppers) across North America. The company serves over 30,000 customer locations, with one customer... Read more

$49.51+12.9% A.UpsideScore 4.2/10#5 of 5 Food Distribution
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield15.84%
Stop $46.04Target $55.88(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$49.38-0.3%8 analysts
$55.88our TP
$49.51price
$49.38mean
$43
$56

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $49.51: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.41; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 105d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17

Recent Developments — United Natural Foods, Inc.

Generated 2026-06-17T10:06:52Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Sep 29, 2026105d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-13.2% upside)
Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)15.7
Mkt Cap$3.0B
EV/EBITDA10.7
Profit Mgn-0.1%
ROE-2.3%
Rev Growth-4.2%
Beta0.82
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.41bearish
IV60%elevated
Max Pain$70+41.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerlargest customer25%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our largest customer accounted for approximately 25% of our Net sales in fiscal 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -4.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.4
Declining revenue: -4%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Unprofitable operations — net margin -0.1%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.4
Roa
1.5
Moat
2.5
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
5.0
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.9
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
8.0
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 105d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $40.40Resistance $57.02

Price Targets

$46
$56
A.Upside+12.9%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.2% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)
! momentum at 2.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-09-29 (105d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UNFI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $49.51: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.41; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $46.04. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UNFI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $55.88 (+12.9% upside). Prior stop was $46.04. Stop-loss: $46.04.

What are the risks of investing in UNFI?

Target reached (-13.2% upside); Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0).

Is UNFI overvalued or undervalued?

United Natural Foods, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 15.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UNFI?

17 analysts cover UNFI with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $49.

What does United Natural Foods, Inc. do?UNFI distributes grocery and non-food products through Natural, Conventional, and Retail segments, operating 52...

UNFI distributes grocery and non-food products through Natural, Conventional, and Retail segments, operating 52 distribution centers and 75 retail stores (Cub Foods and Shoppers) across North America. The company serves over 30,000 customer locations, with one customer comprising approximately 25% of net sales under a distribution agreement expiring May 2032.

Related stocks: PFGC (Performance Food Group Company) · USFD (US Foods Holding Corp.) · ANDE (The Andersons, Inc.) · TAL (TAL Education Group) · EDU (New Oriental Education & Techno)
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