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UAUnder Armour, Inc.Sell4.6·$5.08-0.49%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Under Armour's class C shares show technical breakout momentum above all moving averages with a perfect historical earnings beat record, but quality scores of 2.7 out of 10, negative free cash flow, and declining revenue create a fundamental picture inconsistent with sustainable recovery.

Thesis pillars

  • Geographic Product ConcentrationDeteriorating
  • Negative Fcf Cash BurningStable
  • Technical Breakout Above All MasImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Under Armour, Inc. (UA) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellQualityShortModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Manufacturing

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.08: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Under Armour designs, develops, markets, and distributes branded performance apparel (68% of Fiscal 2026 net revenues), footwear (22%), and accessories (8%), with North America generating approximately 58% of total net revenues. The company sells through wholesale (57% of net... Read more

$5.08+14.9% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#13 of 14 Apparel Manufacturing
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield4.67%
Stop $4.72Target $5.83(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.08: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 61d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on 8k serious 2.05. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04

Recent Developments — Under Armour, Inc.

Generated 2026-09-04T15:07:41Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202661d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (58.0%)
Concentration risk — Product: apparel (68.0%)
Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)13.4
Mkt Cap$2.2B
EV/EBITDA18.3
Profit Mgn-10.0%
ROE-29.8%
Rev Growth-3.2%
Beta1.65
DividendNone
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV53%elevated
Max Pain$5-1.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicNorth America58%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our North America segment accounted for approximately 58% of our net revenues for Fiscal 2026'
  • HIGHProductapparel68%
    10-K Item 1: 'sales of apparel, footwear and accessories represented approximately 68%, 22% and 8% of net revenues, respectively'
  • MEDIUMGeographicJordan, Vietnam, Indonesia and Cambodia
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 65% of our apparel and accessories products manufactured in Jordan, Vietnam, Indonesia and Cambodia'
  • MEDIUMSuppliertop five fabric suppliers
    10-K Item 1: 'our top five suppliers provided approximately 43% of the fabric used in our apparel and accessories'
  • MEDIUMSuppliertop ten apparel manufacturers69%
    10-K Item 1: 'ten produced approximately 69% of our apparel and accessories products'
  • HIGHSupplierseven footwear manufacturers
    10-K Item 1: 'substantially all of our footwear products were manufactured by seven primary contract manufacturers'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-12Item 2.05MEDIUM
    Under Armour Board of Directors approved up to $50M in additional pre-tax restructuring charges on May 11, 2026, expanding the FY2025 restructuring plan above its original $255M ceiling. Reason: identification of additional efficiency opportunities.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -3.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.7
Declining revenue: -3%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.6
Moat
3.2
Fcf Quality
3.9
Piotroski F
4.4
Gross Margin
5.1
Current Ratio
6.4
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 2%, FCF yield 4.7%)No competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
1.4
Value Rank
6.4
Gates8K SERIOUS 2.05Momentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Momentum 4.7>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 61d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $4.75Resistance $5.95

Price Targets

$5
$6
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)
! 8K_SERIOUS:2.05

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (61d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.08: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $4.72. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $5.83 (+14.9% upside). Prior stop was $4.72. Stop-loss: $4.72.

What are the risks of investing in UA?

Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (58.0%); Concentration risk — Product: apparel (68.0%); Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0).

Is UA overvalued or undervalued?

Under Armour, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 13.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UA?

33 analysts cover UA with a consensus score of 2.8/5.

What does Under Armour, Inc. do?Under Armour designs, develops, markets, and distributes branded performance apparel (68% of Fiscal 2026 net revenues),...

Under Armour designs, develops, markets, and distributes branded performance apparel (68% of Fiscal 2026 net revenues), footwear (22%), and accessories (8%), with North America generating approximately 58% of total net revenues. The company sells through wholesale (57% of net revenues) and direct-to-consumer channels (41%), operating 443 Brand and Factory House stores globally and e-commerce platforms, with no single customer exceeding 10% of revenues.

Related stocks: FIGS (FIGS, Inc.) · KTB (Kontoor Brands, Inc.) · LEVI (Levi Strauss & Co) · GIL (Gildan Activewear, Inc.) · RL (Ralph Lauren Corporation)
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