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GOOSCanada Goose Holdings Inc. SuboSell5.3·$8.14-0.12%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Canada Goose has delivered four consecutive earnings misses, trades above its resistance-based price target with a negative risk/reward ratio, and is in a confirmed long-term downtrend—a combination that offers no favorable entry geometry and places the stock below the minimum investable market-cap threshold.

Thesis pillars

  • Four Consecutive Earnings MissesDeteriorating
  • Price Above Target Negative AsymmetryImproving
  • Confirmed Long Term DowntrendImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Canada Goose Holdings Inc. Subo (GOOS) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5GrowthHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Manufacturing

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $8.14 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Canada Goose Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells performance luxury outerwear, apparel, footwear, and accessories for men, women, youth, children, and babies. It operates through three segments: Direct-to-Consumer, Wholesale, and... Read more

$8.14+1.4% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#9 of 14 Apparel Manufacturing
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield17.90%
Stop $7.80Target $8.26(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$9.49+16.6%6 analysts
$8.26our TP
$8.14price
$9.49mean
$7
$12

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $8.14 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 41. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 60d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-05
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202660d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.4
P/E (Fwd)9.9
Mkt Cap$795M
EV/EBITDA5.8
Profit Mgn3.7%
ROE12.2%
Rev Growth10.3%
Beta1.74
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.03bullish
IV52%elevated
Max Pain$11+29.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
1.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Estimates down -25.9% (30d)Earnings concerns: 1B/3M

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.7
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Macd
6.1
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5A.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 60d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $8.04Resistance $8.86

Price Targets

$8
$8
A.Upside+1.4%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.4% upside)
! momentum at 2.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (60d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GOOS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $8.14 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 41. Prior stop was $7.80. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

What is the GOOS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $8.26 (+1.4% upside). Prior stop was $7.80. Stop-loss: $7.80.

What are the risks of investing in GOOS?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0.

Is GOOS overvalued or undervalued?

Canada Goose Holdings Inc. Subo trades at a P/E of 19.4 (forward 9.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GOOS?

18 analysts cover GOOS with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $9.

What does Canada Goose Holdings Inc. Subo do?Canada Goose Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells performance luxury...

Canada Goose Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells performance luxury outerwear, apparel, footwear, and accessories for men, women, youth, children, and babies. It operates through three segments: Direct-to-Consumer, Wholesale, and Other. The company offers leisure wear, including knitwear, sweats, and t-shirts; outerwear products, including rain and everyday collections, jackets for everyday occasions, fleece, and vests; footwear and accessories products, such as sneakers, boots, hats, scarves, gloves, hood trims, socks, bags and eyewear; and lightweight and heavyweight down jackets for the fall, winter, and spring seasons. It sells its products through e-commerce channels and directly operated retail stores. The company offers its products under Canada Goose, Snow Goose, and Baffin brands in Canada, the United States, North America, Greater China, rest of the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Canada Goose Holdings Inc. was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Related stocks: FIGS (FIGS, Inc.) · KTB (Kontoor Brands, Inc.) · ZGN (Ermenegildo Zegna N.V.) · COLM (Columbia Sportswear Company) · GIII (G-III Apparel Group, LTD.)
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