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TTETotalEnergies SEHold6.4·$88.71-0.61%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

TotalEnergies is deeply oversold with an RSI of 28 and one of the most attractive valuations in the energy sector at a forward P/E of 8.4x and PEG of 0.68, but three consecutive earnings misses and a put/call ratio of 2.59 signal that the bear case is actively being priced in.

Thesis pillars

  • Dividend Yield SustainabilityStable
  • Oversold Valuation SetupStable
  • Consecutive Earnings MissesStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

TotalEnergies SE (TTE) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $88.71, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3).

TotalEnergies SE, an integrated energy company, produces and markets oil and biofuels, natural gas, biogas and low-carbon hydrogen, renewables, and electricity in France, the United States, Europe, Africa, and internationally. It operates through Exploration & Production,... Read more

$88.71-6.7% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#11 of 17 Oil & Gas Integrated
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.85%
IncomeYield4.70%(5y avg 5.37%)Payout49.31%sustainable
Stop $85.33Target $90.32(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$95.10+7.2%10 analysts
$90.32our TP
$88.71price
$95.10mean
$81
$108

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $88.71, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3). Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202655d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.2
P/E (Fwd)8.8
Mkt Cap$197.5B
EV/EBITDA5.9
Profit Mgn9.1%
ROE14.5%
Rev Growth27.8%
Beta0.06
Dividend4.70%
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C5.85bearish
IV33%normal
Max Pain$105+18.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5A.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 55d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $85.78Resistance $92.16

Price Targets

$85
$90
A.Upside-6.7%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.7% upside)
! momentum at 4.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (55d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TTE stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $88.71, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3). Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $90.32 (+1.8%), stop $85.33 (−4.0%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TTE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $90.32 (-6.7% upside). Target $90.32 (+1.8%), stop $85.33 (−4.0%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Stop-loss: $85.33.

What are the risks of investing in TTE?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is TTE overvalued or undervalued?

TotalEnergies SE trades at a P/E of 11.2 (forward 8.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TTE?

33 analysts cover TTE with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $95.

What does TotalEnergies SE do?TotalEnergies SE, an integrated energy company, produces and markets oil and biofuels, natural gas, biogas and...

TotalEnergies SE, an integrated energy company, produces and markets oil and biofuels, natural gas, biogas and low-carbon hydrogen, renewables, and electricity in France, the United States, Europe, Africa, and internationally. It operates through Exploration & Production, Integrated LNG, Integrated Power, Refining & Chemicals, and Marketing & Services segments. The Exploration & Production segment engages in the activities of exploration and production of oil and natural gas, as well as carbon storage. The Integrated LNG segment is involved in the upstream and midstream LNG activities, as well as biogas and synthetic methane activities, as well as gas trading. The Integrated Power segment engages in the generation, storage, electricity trading, and B2B-B2C distribution of gas and electricity. The Refining & Chemicals segment is involved in the industrial hub activities comprising the activities of refining, petrochemicals and specialty chemicals. This segment also includes the activities of oil supply, trading and marine shipping, as well as hydrogen activities. The Marketing & Services segment engages in the marketing activities in the field of petroleum products, as well as corresponding supply and logistics activities. The company was formerly known as TOTAL SE and changed its name to TotalEnergies SE in June 2021. TotalEnergies SE was incorporated in 1924 and is headquartered in Courbevoie, France.

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