TransMedics Group holds a wide economic moat in organ perfusion technology with 21% revenue growth, 45% return on equity, and 34.6% analyst-implied upside, but 33% short interest, a put/call ratio of 192.77, and declining earnings estimates create a high-risk setup that requires careful monitoring.
Thesis pillars
- Wide Moat High Roe→Stable
- Revenue Growth Momentum→Stable
- Extreme Bearish Positioning→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) Stock Analysis
Catalyst-Driven edge
Healthcare · Medical Devices
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $68.85, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: third-party sterilization vendors; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0.
TransMedics Group commercializes the Organ Care System (OCS), an FDA-approved portable warm perfusion platform with PMA clearance for heart, lung, and liver transplantation, plus a National OCS Program offering outsourced organ procurement and logistics. Revenue reached $605.5... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $68.85, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: third-party sterilization vendors; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.80, earnings proximity 27d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About TransMedics Group, Inc.
About TransMedics Group, Inc.
Three FDA Pre-Market Approval (PMA)-cleared devices—OCS Heart, OCS Lung, and OCS Liver—form the commercial foundation of TransMedics Group, each approved for both donated-after-brain-death and donated-after-circulatory-death organ preservation. TransMedics generated $605.5 million in total revenue during 2025, up 37.1% from 2024, with substantially all revenue sourced from U.S. transplant centers. The company employed 898 people at December 31, 2025.
TransMedics commercializes the OCS through two channels: the National OCS Program (NOP), launched in 2021, which provides transplant centers with outsourced organ procurement, OCS perfusion management, and logistics via trained organ procurement surgeons and a fleet of 22 owned fixed-wing aircraft; and a direct acquisition model for a small number of U.S. centers and all international customers. Revenue is predominantly recurring—single-use OCS Perfusion Sets and OCS Solutions are required for every transplant using the platform—and Medicare reimburses the OCS under the organ acquisition cost mechanism on a reasonable cost basis, with nearly half of U.S. lung, heart, and liver transplants covered by Medicare and Medicaid. The company is developing OCS Kidney on a third-generation platform and enrolled two next-generation clinical trials for OCS Lung and OCS Heart in 2025. TransMedics reported net income of $190.3 million in 2025 and $35.5 million in 2024, after years of prior operating losses.
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TransMedics' entire manufacturing output flows through a single facility in Andover, Massachusetts. Simultaneously, all OCS disposable sets require third-party ethylene oxide sterilization before sale; the 10-K warns that regulatory restrictions on ethylene oxide, combined with limited sterilization alternatives, could halt product sales entirely until a qualified alternative vendor is secured, and notes that transitioning sterilization methods may not be possible in a timely or cost-effective manner, or at all. A disruption at either node could simultaneously shut down all product supply.
See also: Healthcare · Medical Devices
From TransMedics Group, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — TransMedics Group, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS TransMedics (TMDX) Enters Agreement to Invest in PAD Aviation fo - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS M&T Bank Corp Grows Stock Holdings in TransMedics Group, Inc. $TMDX - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX) Shares Fall 6.3% -- What GF Score o - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS Transmedics Group Inc (TMDX) Dividends & Stock Splits: Historical Payouts and Event Timeline - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS Transmedics Group Inc (TMDX) Earnings Forecast: Future EPS & Revenue Growth Estimates - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductOCS Perfusion Sets and OCS Solutions10-K Item 1A: 'Our ability to generate product revenue and remain profitable depends primarily on sales of OCS Perfusion Sets and OCS Solutions, which we refer to collectively as disposable sets.'
- HIGHSupplierthird-party sterilization vendors10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on third-party vendors to sterilize our disposable sets prior to sale...we will not be able to sell products until we can retain an alternative vendor'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $68.85, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: third-party sterilization vendors; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $102.08 (+48.3%), stop $64.04 (−7.5%), A.R:R 3.7:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $102.08 (+48.2% upside). Target $102.08 (+48.3%), stop $64.04 (−7.5%), A.R:R 3.7:1. Stop-loss: $64.04.
Concentration risk — Supplier: third-party sterilization vendors; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Earnings estimates trending DOWN.
TransMedics Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.8 (forward 21.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Hold.
19 analysts cover TMDX with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $117.
What does TransMedics Group, Inc. do?TransMedics Group commercializes the Organ Care System (OCS), an FDA-approved portable warm perfusion platform with PMA...
TransMedics Group commercializes the Organ Care System (OCS), an FDA-approved portable warm perfusion platform with PMA clearance for heart, lung, and liver transplantation, plus a National OCS Program offering outsourced organ procurement and logistics. Revenue reached $605.5 million in 2025, driven primarily by single-use OCS disposable sets and NOP services billed to U.S. transplant centers.