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Alphatec Holdings, Inc. (ATEC) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Devices

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.44: Risk below floor (2.2 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 8.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 5.00; Below-average business quality.

Alphatec Holdings is a medical technology company focused exclusively on spine surgery, offering approach-specific procedures integrated with its InformatiX platform and EOS imaging technology. Revenue was $764.2 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, a 25% increase... Read more

$9.44+123.8% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#16 of 40 Medical Devices
Stop $8.84Target $21.10(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 8.8:1
Analyst target$24.25+156.9%12 analysts
$21.10our TP
$9.44price
$24.25mean
$28

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.44: Risk below floor (2.2 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 8.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 5.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Invibio
Risk below floor (2.2 < 3.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)16.2
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA95.6
Profit Mgn-18.8%
ROE-630.7%
Rev Growth20.4%
Beta1.12
DividendNone
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C5.00bearish
IV111%elevated
Max Pain$3-73.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierInvibio
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on a number of suppliers and in one case on a single source vendor, Invibio, to provide the raw materials used in the production of our products'
  • MEDIUMProductpolyaxial pedicle screw systems38%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Net sales of our systems that include polyaxial pedicle screws represented approximately 38% and 40% our net sales for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-03Item 5.02LOW
    Ward W. Woods retired from the Board effective February 27, 2026, for personal reasons, not due to any disagreement with the Company. A Vesting Acceleration Agreement was entered into for unvested RSUs.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Macd
1.9
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Volatile — 7.1% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Debt Equity
0.0
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Days To Cover
4.0
Short Interest
4.4
Beta
6.5
Elevated put/call: 5.00High IV: 111%Above max pain $2Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/3MEarnings in 5 days

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.0
Value Rank
7.0
Growth Rank
7.8
GatesMomentum 1.6<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dA.R:R 8.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.11Resistance $11.78

Price Targets

$9
$21
A.Upside+123.5%
A.R:R8.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Risk below floor (2.2 < 3.0)
! Momentum score 1.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ATEC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.44: Risk below floor (2.2 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 8.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 5.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $8.84. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ATEC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $21.10 (+123.8% upside). Prior stop was $8.84. Stop-loss: $8.84.

What are the risks of investing in ATEC?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Invibio; Risk below floor (2.2 < 3.0).

Is ATEC overvalued or undervalued?

Alphatec Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 16.2). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ATEC?

19 analysts cover ATEC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $24.

What does Alphatec Holdings, Inc. do?Alphatec Holdings is a medical technology company focused exclusively on spine surgery, offering approach-specific...

Alphatec Holdings is a medical technology company focused exclusively on spine surgery, offering approach-specific procedures integrated with its InformatiX platform and EOS imaging technology. Revenue was $764.2 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, a 25% increase year-over-year.

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