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TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Devices

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $66.15 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Weak growth.

TransMedics develops the Organ Care System (OCS), the only FDA-approved portable multi-organ warm perfusion platform for heart, lung, and liver transplants, and provides the National OCS Program (NOP) as a turnkey outsourced procurement and logistics service. Revenue of $605.5M... Read more

$66.15+55.1% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#20 of 40 Medical Devices
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.61%
Stop $61.49Target $102.56(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.7:1
Analyst target$117.89+78.2%9 analysts
$102.56our TP
$66.15price
$117.89mean
$142

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $66.15 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 18, MACD bearish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — TransMedics Group, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Wide economic moat
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.6
P/E (Fwd)19.2
Mkt Cap$2.4B
EV/EBITDA22.0
Profit Mgn27.0%
ROE45.2%
Rev Growth21.2%
Beta2.06
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.73neutral
IV67%elevated
Max Pain$40-39.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.5
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 18, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
7.8
Strong growth: 21% YoY
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
18 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $60.10Resistance $119.14

Price Targets

$61
$103
A.Upside+55.0%
A.R:R3.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TMDX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $66.15 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 18, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $61.49. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TMDX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $102.56 (+55.1% upside). Prior stop was $61.49. Stop-loss: $61.49.

What are the risks of investing in TMDX?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is TMDX overvalued or undervalued?

TransMedics Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.6 (forward 19.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TMDX?

20 analysts cover TMDX with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $118.

What does TransMedics Group, Inc. do?TransMedics develops the Organ Care System (OCS), the only FDA-approved portable multi-organ warm perfusion platform...

TransMedics develops the Organ Care System (OCS), the only FDA-approved portable multi-organ warm perfusion platform for heart, lung, and liver transplants, and provides the National OCS Program (NOP) as a turnkey outsourced procurement and logistics service. Revenue of $605.5M in 2025 (37% growth) is largely recurring from single-use OCS disposable sets.

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