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TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Devices

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $99.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: OCS Perfusion Sets and OCS Solutions; Concentration risk — Supplier: single facility in Andover, Massachusetts.

TransMedics Group makes the OCS, the only FDA-approved portable multi-organ warm perfusion platform for heart, lung, and liver transplantation, and operates the NOP providing outsourced organ procurement and logistics to U.S. transplant centers. Revenue comes from OCS Perfusion... Read more

$99.19+37.4% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#3 of 40 Medical Devices
Stop $93.13Target $135.72(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.2:1
Analyst target$156.00+57.3%10 analysts
$135.72our TP
$99.19price
$156.00mean
$190

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $99.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: OCS Perfusion Sets and OCS Solutions; Concentration risk — Supplier: single facility in Andover, Massachusetts. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Under M&A bid. Hold for deal completion or sell if spread < 3%. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: OCS Perfusion Sets and OCS Solutions
Concentration risk — Supplier: single facility in Andover, Massachusetts
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.2
P/E (Fwd)26.8
Mkt Cap$3.4B
EV/EBITDA25.4
Profit Mgn31.4%
ROE54.2%
Rev Growth32.2%
Beta2.08
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.58bearish
IV97%elevated
Max Pain$65-34.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductOCS Perfusion Sets and OCS Solutions
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our ability to generate product revenue and remain profitable depends primarily on sales of OCS Perfusion Sets and OCS Solutions'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle facility in Andover, Massachusetts
    10-K Item 1A: 'all of our manufacturing operations are currently conducted at a single facility in Andover, Massachusetts'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-04Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CCO Tamer Khayal transitioned to SVP International effective Feb 2, 2026; Giovanni Cecere appointed CCO. GC Anil Ranganath transitioning to non-executive role; Matthew Forsyth appointed SVP General Counsel effective March 9, 2026. Clean handoffs for both roles.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 1.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dA.R:R 3.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
33 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $96.01Resistance $120.91

Price Targets

$93
$136
A.Upside+36.8%
A.R:R3.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! M&A event: 'definitive agreement' detected
! Momentum score 1.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TMDX stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $99.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: OCS Perfusion Sets and OCS Solutions; Concentration risk — Supplier: single facility in Andover, Massachusetts. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Under M&A bid. Hold for deal completion or sell if spread < 3%. Target $135.72 (+36.8%), stop $93.13 (−6.5%), A.R:R 3.2:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TMDX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $135.72 (+37.4% upside). Target $135.72 (+36.8%), stop $93.13 (−6.5%), A.R:R 3.2:1. Stop-loss: $93.13.

What are the risks of investing in TMDX?

Concentration risk — Product: OCS Perfusion Sets and OCS Solutions; Concentration risk — Supplier: single facility in Andover, Massachusetts; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.

Is TMDX overvalued or undervalued?

TransMedics Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.2 (forward 26.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TMDX?

20 analysts cover TMDX with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $156.

What does TransMedics Group, Inc. do?TransMedics Group makes the OCS, the only FDA-approved portable multi-organ warm perfusion platform for heart, lung,...

TransMedics Group makes the OCS, the only FDA-approved portable multi-organ warm perfusion platform for heart, lung, and liver transplantation, and operates the NOP providing outsourced organ procurement and logistics to U.S. transplant centers. Revenue comes from OCS Perfusion Set/Solution sales and NOP service fees; the company earned $190.3M net income in 2025.

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