Toyota Motor offers deep valuation at a forward price-to-earnings of 11.4x and PEG of 0.49 with 42% analyst-implied upside, but a falling-knife price pattern, negative free cash flow quality, and an extremely elevated put/call ratio of 24.86 signal significant near-term risk.
Thesis pillars
- Deep Value Low Forward Pe↓Deteriorating
- Falling Knife Pattern Risk→Stable
- Extremely Elevated Put Call↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $177.94: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10 and A.R:R 2.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial vehicles, and related parts and accessories in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, Central and South America, Oceania, Africa, the Middle East, and internationally.... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $177.94: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10 and A.R:R 2.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.35, earnings proximity 17d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-19Recent Developments — Toyota Motor Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS NVIDIA Could Be the Missing Piece in Japan's AI Puzzle: Analyst — benzinga Jul 17, 2026 positive
- NEWS Repsol, Toyota, BMW And Bosch Launch Real-World Pilot Of Vehicles Running On 100% Renewable Gasoline — benzinga Jul 15, 2026 positive
- NEWS Trump Is Touting Toyota, Micron and GM. Wall Street May Like One Stock Best. — benzinga Jul 13, 2026 positive
- NEWS Nissan Targets More US Production After Tariff Hit, But CEO Ivan Espinosa Says Sub-$30,000 Models Make Mexico Shift ‘Imp — benzinga Jul 13, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Tesla, Rivian Beat Expectations as Ford, GM Face Tough Quarter — benzinga Jul 12, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-07-19T06:12:10Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $177.94: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10 and A.R:R 2.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Prior stop was $171.39. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $203.17 (+14.4% upside). Prior stop was $171.39. Stop-loss: $171.39.
Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0).
Toyota Motor Corporation trades at a P/E of 9.9 (forward 11.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
26 analysts cover TM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $239.
What does Toyota Motor Corporation do?Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial...
Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial vehicles, and related parts and accessories in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, Central and South America, Oceania, Africa, the Middle East, and internationally. The company operates through Automotive, Financial Services, and All Other segments. The company offers subcompact and compact cars; mini-vehicles; mid-size, luxury, sports, and specialty cars; recreational and sport-utility vehicles; pickup trucks; minivans; trucks; and buses. It also develops and sells battery and hybrid electric vehicles and batteries. In addition, the company provides financial services, such as retail financing and leasing, wholesale financing, insurance, and credit cards. Further, it operates GAZOO.com, a web portal for automobile information, as well as engages in telecommunications and other businesses. It offers vehicles under the Toyota and Lexus brand names. It has strategic manufacturing alliance with Joby Aviation, Inc. to establish a joint venture to realize air mobility. Toyota Motor Corporation was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Toyota, Japan.