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TFPMTriple Flag Precious Metals CorBuy Wait6.7·$31.30+1.82%
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Triple Flag Precious Metals Cor (TFPM) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Other Precious Metals & Mining

Wait for pullback to $28.70. At $31.30 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $28.70 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., a precious metals streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing precious metals, streams, royalties, and other mineral interests in Australia, Canada, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Mexico, Mongolia, Peru, South Africa, and the... Read more

$31.30+17.0% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#3 of 10 Other Precious Metals & Mining
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield0.78%
IncomeYield0.75%Payout15.07%sustainable
Entry $28.70(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $26.00Target $35.06(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.8:1Setup A.R:R 2.4:1
Analyst target$41.25+31.8%4 analysts
$35.06our TP
$31.30price
$41.25mean
$43

Wait for pullback to $28.70. At $31.30 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $28.70 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. V9 Gate blocked: R/R 0.8x at spot < 1.5 minimum; SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3. Wait for improvement. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and sector concentration cap sector=basic materials count=3 cap=3. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
No bear case signals

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.4
P/E (Fwd)20.8
Mkt Cap$6.4B
EV/EBITDA17.7
Profit Mgn68.7%
ROE15.9%
Rev Growth78.7%
Beta0.30
Dividend0.75%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.64bullish
IV58%elevated
Max Pain$45+43.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.9
Bollinger
2.9
52w Position
5.0
GatesA.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotSECTOR CONCENTRATION CAP sector=Basic Materials count=3 cap=3Momentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $26.61Resistance $32.38

Price Targets

$26
$29
$35
A.Upside+12.0%
A.R:R0.8:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.7%
Max %1.5%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! R/R 0.8x at spot < 1.5 minimum
! SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3
! asymmetry at 0.8 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TFPM stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $28.70. At $31.30 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $28.70 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. V9 Gate blocked: R/R 0.8x at spot < 1.5 minimum; SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3. Wait for improvement. Target $35.06 (+12.0%), stop $26.00 (−20.4%), Setup A.R:R 2.4:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TFPM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $35.06 (+17.0% upside). Target $35.06 (+12.0%), stop $26.00 (−20.4%), Setup A.R:R 2.4:1. Stop-loss: $26.00.

Is TFPM overvalued or undervalued?

Triple Flag Precious Metals Cor trades at a P/E of 20.4 (forward 20.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about TFPM?

16 analysts cover TFPM with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $41.

What does Triple Flag Precious Metals Cor do?Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., a precious metals streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing...

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., a precious metals streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing precious metals, streams, royalties, and other mineral interests in Australia, Canada, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Mexico, Mongolia, Peru, South Africa, and the United States. The company has a portfolio of streams and royalties providing exposure to copper, gold, silver, nickel, lead, lithium, and zinc. The company was founded in 2016 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

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