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Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (ASM) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Other Precious Metals & Mining

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $6.48, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 8.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.27× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and advancement of mineral properties in Mexico. It explores for silver, gold, copper, and base metal deposits. The company holds 100% interest in the Avino Mine area... Read more

$6.48+48.5% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#4 of 10 Other Precious Metals & Mining
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.28%
Stop $6.03Target $9.62(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 3.2:1
Analyst target$11.31+74.6%4 analysts
$9.62our TP
$6.48price
$11.31mean
$13

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $6.48, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 8.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.27× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.07, quality 7.5/10, growth 10.0/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 85d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and materials cycle peak fwd=8.6x,ratio=0.27x. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.5 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 8.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.27× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)31.5
P/E (Fwd)8.6
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA19.5
Profit Mgn32.7%
ROE18.1%
Rev Growth109.3%
Beta2.86
DividendNone
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.13bullish
IV88%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
3.3
Macd
4.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/3M
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5MATERIALS CYCLE PEAK fwd=8.6x,ratio=0.27xA.R:R 3.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 85d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $6.11Resistance $8.19

Price Targets

$6
$10
A.Upside+48.5%
A.R:R3.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 3.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=8.6x,ratio=0.27x

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-12 (85d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ASM stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $6.48, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 8.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.27× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.07, quality 7.5/10, growth 10.0/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $9.62 (+48.5%), stop $6.03 (−7.5%), A.R:R 3.2:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ASM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $9.62 (+48.5% upside). Target $9.62 (+48.5%), stop $6.03 (−7.5%), A.R:R 3.2:1. Stop-loss: $6.03.

What are the risks of investing in ASM?

Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 8.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.27× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5.

Is ASM overvalued or undervalued?

Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. trades at a P/E of 31.5 (forward 8.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ASM?

6 analysts cover ASM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $11.

What does Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. do?Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and...

Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and advancement of mineral properties in Mexico. It explores for silver, gold, copper, and base metal deposits. The company holds 100% interest in the Avino Mine area property covering an area of approximately 4,086.93 hectares comprising 42 mineral claims and leases 4 mineral claims, which is located in the state of Durango, Mexico. It also has an option to acquire 100% interest in the Ana Maria and El Laberinto properties located in Mexico. The company was formerly known as International Avino Mines Ltd. and changed its name to Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. in August 1997. Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

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