Revenue growth of 109% year-over-year, a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, strong 33% margins, and a risk/reward of roughly 6.7-to-1 to the analyst target justify a small initial position; the material offsets are earnings having missed consensus in three of the last four quarters with an average shortfall of 24%, free cash flow running at only 41% of net income, and a commodity-cycle peak flag suggesting forward earnings estimates may embed a precious-metals price surge that is at risk of mean-reversion.
Thesis pillars
- Commodity Cycle Peak Risk↓Deteriorating
- Persistent Earnings Misses↓Deteriorating
- Favorable Risk Reward Geometry↑Improving
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026
Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (ASM) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup · Sector Rotation edge
Basic Materials · Other Precious Metals & Mining
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $4.60, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 8.8× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.52× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.
Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and advancement of mineral properties in Mexico. It explores for silver, gold, copper, and base metal deposits. The company holds 100% interest in the Avino Mine area... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $4.60, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 8.8× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.52× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Quality-value play. Wait for momentum improvement. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and materials cycle peak fwd=8.8x,ratio=0.52x. Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-27Recent Developments — Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd.
Latest news
- NEWS Wall Street analysts see a 63.04% upside in Avino Silver (ASM): Can the stock really move this high? - MSN — MSN neutral
- NEWS Could Avino Silver & Gold (TSX:ASM) Earnings Support Its Valuation? - Kalkine Media — Kalkine Media neutral
- NEWS Could Avino Silver & Gold (TSX:ASM) Earnings Support Its Valuation? - kalkinemedia.com — kalkinemedia.com neutral
- NEWS Avino Silver & Gold Mines (TSX:ASM) Sharpens Its Precious Metals Story - Kalkine Media — Kalkine Media positive
- NEWS Avino Silver & Gold Mines (TSX:ASM) Sharpens Its Precious Metals Story - kalkinemedia.com — kalkinemedia.com positive
Generated 2026-10-27T11:33:40Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $4.60, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 8.8× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.52× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Quality-value play. Wait for momentum improvement. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Analyst target $8.94 (+94.3%), stop $4.37 (−5.3%), A.R:R 7.8:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $8.94 (+94.3% upside). Analyst target $8.94 (+94.3%), stop $4.37 (−5.3%), A.R:R 7.8:1. Stop-loss: $4.37.
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 8.8× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.52× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Consecutive earnings misses (3).
Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. trades at a P/E of 17.0 (forward 8.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Hold.
6 analysts cover ASM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $11.
What does Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. do?Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and...
Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and advancement of mineral properties in Mexico. It explores for silver, gold, copper, and base metal deposits. The company holds 100% interest in the Avino Mine area property covering an area of approximately 4,086.93 hectares comprising 42 mineral claims and leases 4 mineral claims, which is located in the state of Durango, Mexico. It also has an option to acquire 100% interest in the Ana Maria and El Laberinto properties located in Mexico. The company was formerly known as International Avino Mines Ltd. and changed its name to Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. in August 1997. Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.