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TFPMTriple Flag Precious Metals CorBuy Wait6.5·$27.36+0.74%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Triple Flag Precious Metals combines elite business quality — a perfect Piotroski score of 9 out of 9, 69% gross margins, and 79% revenue growth — with a 4-quarter earnings beat streak, but the stock is currently 14% above its ideal entry target following a 5.8% gap-up, and sector concentration in basic materials limits position sizing.

Thesis pillars

  • Elevated Entry Price Gap Fill RiskImproving
  • Elite Business Quality MetricsStable
  • Exceptional Revenue GrowthStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Triple Flag Precious Metals Cor (TFPM) Stock Analysis

Temporary headwind edge

Buy WaitGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Other Precious Metals & Mining

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $28.30 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risk: Negative momentum.

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., a precious metals streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing precious metals, streams, royalties, and other mineral interests in Australia, Canada, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Mexico, Mongolia, Peru, South Africa, and the... Read more

$27.36+21.2% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#4 of 14 Other Precious Metals & Mining
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield0.88%
IncomeYield0.84%Payout15.07%sustainable
Entry $28.30(support + ATR (held))Stop $26.02Target $33.15(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 2.5:1
Analyst target$39.00+42.5%4 analysts
$33.15our TP
$27.36price
$39.00mean
$40

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $28.30 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risk: Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.13, quality 7.7/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 17d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-19

Recent Developments — Triple Flag Precious Metals Cor

Generated 2026-07-20T05:32:11Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202617d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.1
P/E (Fwd)19.5
Mkt Cap$5.7B
EV/EBITDA15.7
Profit Mgn68.7%
ROE15.9%
Rev Growth78.7%
Beta0.30
Dividend0.84%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.1
Macd
0.9
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.5<4.5A.R:R 2.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 17d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $26.67Resistance $31.84

Price Targets

$26
$28
$33
A.Upside+21.2%
A.R:R2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.1%
Max %2.2%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (17d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TFPM stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $28.30 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risk: Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.13, quality 7.7/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $33.15 (+21.2%), stop $26.02 (−5.1%), A.R:R 2.5:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TFPM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $33.15 (+21.2% upside). Target $33.15 (+21.2%), stop $26.02 (−5.1%), A.R:R 2.5:1. Stop-loss: $26.02.

What are the risks of investing in TFPM?

Negative momentum.

Is TFPM overvalued or undervalued?

Triple Flag Precious Metals Cor trades at a P/E of 18.1 (forward 19.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about TFPM?

16 analysts cover TFPM with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $39.

What does Triple Flag Precious Metals Cor do?Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., a precious metals streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing...

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., a precious metals streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing precious metals, streams, royalties, and other mineral interests in Australia, Canada, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Mexico, Mongolia, Peru, South Africa, and the United States. The company has a portfolio of streams and royalties providing exposure to copper, gold, silver, nickel, lead, lithium, and zinc. The company was founded in 2016 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

Related stocks: HL (Hecla Mining Company) · BVN (Buenaventura Mining Company Inc) · ASM (Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd.) · MUX (McEwen Inc.) · SBSW (D/B/A Sibanye-Stillwater Limite)
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