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Triple Flag Precious Metals Cor (TFPM) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Other Precious Metals & Mining

Wait for pullback to $30.42. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $30.96. Engine's entry $30.42 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Negative momentum.

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., a precious metals streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing precious metals, streams, royalties, and other mineral interests in Australia, Canada, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Mexico, Mongolia, Peru, South Africa, and the... Read more

$30.96+22.5% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#3 of 10 Other Precious Metals & Mining
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield0.78%
IncomeYield0.75%Payout15.07%sustainable
Entry $30.42(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $27.79Target $36.34(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 2.0:1Setup A.R:R 3.2:1
Analyst target$42.75+38.1%4 analysts
$36.34our TP
$30.96price
$42.75mean
$44

Wait for pullback to $30.42. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $30.96. Engine's entry $30.42 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.14, quality 7.7/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Triple Flag Precious Metals Cor

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.7 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.4
P/E (Fwd)20.0
Mkt Cap$6.4B
EV/EBITDA17.8
Profit Mgn68.7%
ROE15.9%
Rev Growth78.7%
Beta0.30
Dividend0.75%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.32bullish
IV49%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
0.4
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.6<4.5A.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $30.64Resistance $36.12

Price Targets

$28
$30
$36
A.Upside+17.4%
A.R:R2.0:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)3.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.1%
Max %2.2%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TFPM stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $30.42. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $30.96. Engine's entry $30.42 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.14, quality 7.7/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $36.34 (+17.4%), stop $27.79 (−11.4%), Setup A.R:R 3.2:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TFPM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $36.34 (+22.5% upside). Target $36.34 (+17.4%), stop $27.79 (−11.4%), Setup A.R:R 3.2:1. Stop-loss: $27.79.

What are the risks of investing in TFPM?

Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Negative momentum.

Is TFPM overvalued or undervalued?

Triple Flag Precious Metals Cor trades at a P/E of 20.4 (forward 20.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about TFPM?

16 analysts cover TFPM with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $43.

What does Triple Flag Precious Metals Cor do?Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., a precious metals streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing...

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., a precious metals streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing precious metals, streams, royalties, and other mineral interests in Australia, Canada, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Mexico, Mongolia, Peru, South Africa, and the United States. The company has a portfolio of streams and royalties providing exposure to copper, gold, silver, nickel, lead, lithium, and zinc. The company was founded in 2016 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

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