Triple Flag Precious Metals Cor (TFPM) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the TFPM stock price target?

Take-profit $38.25 (+20.9% upside). Target $38.25 (+21.0%), stop $30.44 (−3.8%), A.R:R 3.0:1.

Q: What are the risks of investing in TFPM?

Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Negative momentum; Momentum score 1.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum; EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d.

Q: Is TFPM overvalued or undervalued?

Triple Flag Precious Metals Cor trades at a P/E of 26.7 (forward 20.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Overall verdict: Hold.

Q: What do analysts say about TFPM?

16 analysts cover TFPM with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $45.

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Basic Materials · Other Precious Metals & Mining

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.60, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Negative momentum.

$31.60+20.9% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#4 of 10 Other Precious Metals & Mining

Stop $30.44Target $38.25(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 3.0:1

Analyst target$45.00+42.4%4 analysts

$38.25our TP

$31.60price

$45.00mean

$49

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.60, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)

High-quality business

Strong growth profile

Risks

Earnings in 5 days (event risk)

Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.7

P/E (Fwd)20.2

Mkt Cap$6.5B

EV/EBITDA21.7

Profit Mgn61.7%

ROE12.7%

Rev Growth60.2%

Beta0.34

Dividend0.73%

Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C1.43bearish

IV68%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value5.415%0.81

Quality7.215%1.08

Growth10.015%1.50

Momentum1.210%0.12

Sentiment6.910%0.69

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank4.210%0.42

Technical Setup7.55%0.38

Risk Profile6.35%0.32

Catalyst7.35%0.36

Overall (Σ contributions)6.18

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd

0.0

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Ma Position

2.2

Rsi

3.0

Capitulation risk (RSI 21, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

GatesMomentum 1.2<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dA.R:R 3.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate

RSI

21 · Oversold

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $31.38Resistance $37.25

Price Targets

$30

$38

A.Upside+21.0%

A.R:R3.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

4/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is TFPM stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.60, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $38.25 (+21.0%), stop $30.44 (−3.8%), A.R:R 3.0:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TFPM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $38.25 (+20.9% upside). Target $38.25 (+21.0%), stop $30.44 (−3.8%), A.R:R 3.0:1. Stop-loss: $30.44.

What are the risks of investing in TFPM?

Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Negative momentum.

Is TFPM overvalued or undervalued?

Triple Flag Precious Metals Cor trades at a P/E of 26.7 (forward 20.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TFPM?

16 analysts cover TFPM with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $45.

What does Triple Flag Precious Metals Cor do?Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., a precious metals streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing...

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., a precious metals streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing precious metals, streams, royalties, and other mineral interests in Australia, Canada, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Mexico, Mongolia, Peru, South Africa, and the United States. The company has a portfolio of streams and royalties providing exposure to copper, gold, silver, nickel, lead, lithium, and zinc. The company was founded in 2016 and is based in Toronto, Canada.