Skip to main content
TDToronto Dominion Bank (The)Hold5.0·$119.30-2.41%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Toronto-Dominion Bank offers attractive valuation at a forward price-to-earnings of 15.3 times and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.59, with three of four recent earnings beats and rising earnings estimates, but revenue declined 32% year-over-year and the analyst target has been exceeded, leaving little room for near-term price appreciation.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation With Earnings BeatStable
  • Revenue Decline HeadwindStable
  • Recent Earnings MomentumStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Toronto Dominion Bank (The) (TD) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Diversified

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $119.30, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.7% away).

The Toronto-Dominion Bank, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Canada, the United States, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking; U.S. Retail; Wealth Management and... Read more

$119.30+0.8% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#19 of 20 Banks - Diversified
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.72%(5y avg 4.19%)Payout50.00%sustainable
Stop $115.48Target $120.20(resistance)A.R:R -3.6:1
Analyst target$111.70-6.4%3 analysts
$120.20our TP
$119.30price
$111.70mean
$96
$128

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $119.30, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.7% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 27, 202655d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.7% away)
Weak overall score: 5.0/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.9
P/E (Fwd)15.8
Mkt Cap$197.1B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn25.2%
ROE11.9%
Rev Growth-31.5%
Beta0.88
Dividend2.72%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.71neutral
IV48%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
2.5
Value Rank
3.3

Revenue shrinking — -31.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
7.2
Declining revenue: -32%
GatesA.R:R -3.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 55d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $112.59Resistance $122.65

Price Targets

$115
$120
A.Upside+0.8%
A.R:R-3.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-20.4% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+1: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-27 (55d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TD stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $119.30, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.7% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $120.20 (+0.8%), stop $115.48 (−3.3%), A.R:R -3.6:1. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $120.20 (+0.8% upside). Target $120.20 (+0.8%), stop $115.48 (−3.3%), A.R:R -3.6:1. Stop-loss: $115.48.

What are the risks of investing in TD?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.7% away); Weak overall score: 5.0/10.

Is TD overvalued or undervalued?

Toronto Dominion Bank (The) trades at a P/E of 19.9 (forward 15.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TD?

23 analysts cover TD with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $112.

What does Toronto Dominion Bank (The) do?The Toronto-Dominion Bank, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Canada,...

The Toronto-Dominion Bank, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Canada, the United States, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking; U.S. Retail; Wealth Management and Insurance; and Wholesale Banking. The company offers personal deposits, such as chequing, savings, and investment products; financing, investment, cash management, international trade, and banking services to businesses; and financing options to customers at point of sale for automotive and recreational vehicle purchases. It also provides credit cards and payments; real estate secured lending, auto finance, and consumer lending services; point-of-sale payment solutions for large and small businesses; wealth and asset management products, and advice to retail and institutional clients through direct investing, advice-based, and asset management businesses; and property and casualty insurance, as well as life and health insurance products. The company also provides capital markets, and corporate and investment banking products and services, including underwriting and distribution of new debt and equity issues; advice on strategic acquisitions and divestitures; and trading, funding, and investment services to corporations, governments, and institutions. The Toronto-Dominion Bank was founded in 1855 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Related stocks: CM (Canadian Imperial Bank of Comme) · C (Citigroup, Inc.) · BK (The Bank of New York Mellon Cor) · BNY (The Bank of New York Mellon Cor) · BMO (Bank Of Montreal)
Home Stocks TD

Latest news

Latest News

Traders Union61d ago
MarketBeat61d agoAnalyst
Yahoo Finance62d ago
Yahoo Finance34d agoAnalyst
Yahoo Finance34d agoAnalyst
GuruFocus66d ago
Yahoo Finance32d ago
Morningstar32d ago
MarketBeat32d ago
Seeking Alpha28d ago
Yahoo Finance30d ago
Yahoo Finance30d ago
Investing.com28d agoAnalyst
MarketBeat28d ago
MarketBeat63d agoAnalyst
Yahoo Finance30d agoAnalyst
Yahoo Finance30d agoAnalyst
MarketBeat66d ago
Benzinga13d ago
Benzinga27d ago
Loading more...