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JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Diversified

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $299.88, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Regulatory: Federal Reserve consolidated supervision; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. held $4.4 trillion in assets at December 31, 2025, operating through Consumer & Community Banking, the Commercial & Investment Bank, and Asset & Wealth Management segments. Revenue comes from net interest income on consumer and wholesale loans,... Read more

$299.88+2.7% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#14 of 19 Banks - Diversified
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.00%(5y avg 2.39%)Payout28.24%sustainable
Stop $288.10Target $308.09(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$342.32+14.2%22 analysts
$308.09our TP
$299.88price
$342.32mean
$391

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $299.88, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Regulatory: Federal Reserve consolidated supervision; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

About JP Morgan Chase & Co.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. held $4.4 trillion in assets and $362.4 billion in stockholders' equity at December 31, 2025, operating through three reportable segments — Consumer & Community Banking, the Commercial & Investment Bank, and Asset & Wealth Management. Principal bank subsidiary JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. maintains branches in 48 states and Washington, D.C., with overseas operations anchored in the United Kingdom and Germany.

The Firm earns revenue from net interest income on consumer loans, credit cards, mortgages, and wholesale lending; investment-banking fees and trading revenue inside the Commercial & Investment Bank; and management fees across Asset & Wealth Management. JPMorgan Chase serves millions of U.S. consumers under the Chase brand and corporate, institutional, and government clients globally under the J.P. Morgan brand. Consolidated supervision sits with the Federal Reserve, while the principal bank subsidiary is regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency with FDIC backstop authority on deposit insurance and resolution. U.S. broker-dealer J.P. Morgan Securities LLC operates under SEC and FINRA oversight, and the Firm's swap dealers and security-based swap dealers are registered with the CFTC. Competition spans banks, brokerages, hedge funds, private equity firms, payments processors, and digital-asset and financial-technology entrants disintermediating traditional channels.

Show full overview

JPMorgan Chase remains subject to a March 2024 OCC consent order disclosed in the 2025 10-K, tied to processes for inventorying trading venues and confirming the completeness of data fed to trade surveillance platforms. The Firm must file its 2026 CCAR submission with the Federal Reserve on April 6, 2026, with indicative Stress Capital Buffer notification by June 30 and the final SCB effective October 1, 2026. The Federal Reserve announced in February 2026 that SCB requirements for large banks will remain at current levels through September 30, 2027, deferring recalibration pending revised models incorporating public feedback.

See also: Financial Services · Banks - Diversified

From JP Morgan Chase & Co.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted May 16, 2026.

Recent Developments — JP Morgan Chase & Co.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Regulatory: Federal Reserve consolidated supervision
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.4
P/E (Fwd)12.8
Mkt Cap$805.8B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn33.9%
ROE16.5%
Rev Growth12.7%
Beta1.02
Dividend2.00%
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.94neutral
IV35%normal
Max Pain$245-18.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHregulatoryFederal Reserve consolidated supervision
    10-K Item 1: 'JPMorgan Chase & Co. is a bank holding company ("BHC") and a financial holding company ("FHC") under U.S. federal law, and is subject to comprehensive consolidated supervision, regulation and examination by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System'
  • MEDIUMregulatoryOCC consent order (March 2024)
    10-K Item 1: 'The Firm remains subject to a consent order entered into in March 2024 with the OCC which relates to the Firm's processes to inventory trading venues and confirm the completeness of certain data fed to trade surveillance platforms.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.5<4.5A.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 55d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $295.55Resistance $316.30

Price Targets

$288
$308
A.Upside+2.7%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.7% upside)
! Momentum score 1.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.5:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-14 (55d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is JPM stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $299.88, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Regulatory: Federal Reserve consolidated supervision; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $308.09 (+2.7%), stop $288.10 (−4.1%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the JPM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $308.09 (+2.7% upside). Target $308.09 (+2.7%), stop $288.10 (−4.1%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Stop-loss: $288.10.

What are the risks of investing in JPM?

Concentration risk — Regulatory: Federal Reserve consolidated supervision; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).

Is JPM overvalued or undervalued?

JP Morgan Chase & Co. trades at a P/E of 14.4 (forward 12.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about JPM?

31 analysts cover JPM with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $342.

What does JP Morgan Chase & Co. do?JPMorgan Chase & Co. held $4.4 trillion in assets at December 31, 2025, operating through Consumer & Community Banking,...

JPMorgan Chase & Co. held $4.4 trillion in assets at December 31, 2025, operating through Consumer & Community Banking, the Commercial & Investment Bank, and Asset & Wealth Management segments. Revenue comes from net interest income on consumer and wholesale loans, investment-banking and trading fees, and asset management fees, with U.S. branches in 48 states and principal overseas operations in the U.K. and Germany.

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