Value
6.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.5 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.7 |
| PEG | 9.3 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.61
TD · Why this verdict
Why Toronto Dominion Bank (The) (TD) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Toronto-Dominion trades at a forward price-to-earnings of 15.3 times with a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.59, and earnings estimates are trending upward — a combination that suggests the market is not yet pricing in the improving earnings trajectory. Valuation breakdown | Forward earnings estimates increase at least 5% from current levels within 12 months, supporting further valuation re-rating. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock has already exceeded the analyst target price and trades less than 1% from its 52-week high, meaning the valuation upside identified by the price-to-earnings growth ratio may already be reflected in the price. | ||
Revenue declined 32% year-over-year, resulting in a near-zero revenue growth score — a significant concern for a bank that otherwise shows strong net margins of 25%, as top-line contraction limits future earnings growth potential. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth turns positive on a year-over-year basis in at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterBank revenue can be volatile quarter to quarter due to trading gains, provisions, and one-time charges; a single large loss recognition in a prior period can create a favorable comparison base that mechanically boosts revenue growth. | ||
Toronto-Dominion beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 3.9%, and earnings estimates are trending upward, suggesting improving operational performance relative to analyst expectations. Bull case | Earnings surprise stays above 3% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters and the upward estimate revision trend continues. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent miss in December 2025 with a negative 6% surprise interrupts what was an otherwise clean beat streak; one miss can quickly shift analyst sentiment for a large diversified bank. | ||
The put-to-call ratio stands at 3.85, reflecting that options market participants are positioned approximately four times more heavily for downside than upside — an unusual level of hedging demand that suggests institutional caution about near-term price risk. Key risks | The put-to-call ratio falls below 2.0 within 60 days as downside hedging unwinds on positive earnings delivery. | →Stable |
| CounterA high put-to-call ratio at a 52-week high can represent covered call selling by existing shareholders rather than directional bearish bets; it does not necessarily predict price declines. | ||
Toronto-Dominion trades at a forward price-to-earnings of 15.3 times with a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.59, and earnings estimates are trending upward — a combination that suggests the market is not yet pricing in the improving earnings trajectory.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward earnings estimates increase at least 5% from current levels within 12 months, supporting further valuation re-rating.
CounterThe stock has already exceeded the analyst target price and trades less than 1% from its 52-week high, meaning the valuation upside identified by the price-to-earnings growth ratio may already be reflected in the price.
Revenue declined 32% year-over-year, resulting in a near-zero revenue growth score — a significant concern for a bank that otherwise shows strong net margins of 25%, as top-line contraction limits future earnings growth potential.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive on a year-over-year basis in at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters.
CounterBank revenue can be volatile quarter to quarter due to trading gains, provisions, and one-time charges; a single large loss recognition in a prior period can create a favorable comparison base that mechanically boosts revenue growth.
Toronto-Dominion beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 3.9%, and earnings estimates are trending upward, suggesting improving operational performance relative to analyst expectations.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise stays above 3% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters and the upward estimate revision trend continues.
CounterThe most recent miss in December 2025 with a negative 6% surprise interrupts what was an otherwise clean beat streak; one miss can quickly shift analyst sentiment for a large diversified bank.
The put-to-call ratio stands at 3.85, reflecting that options market participants are positioned approximately four times more heavily for downside than upside — an unusual level of hedging demand that suggests institutional caution about near-term price risk.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- The put-to-call ratio falls below 2.0 within 60 days as downside hedging unwinds on positive earnings delivery.
CounterA high put-to-call ratio at a 52-week high can represent covered call selling by existing shareholders rather than directional bearish bets; it does not necessarily predict price declines.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Toronto-Dominion Bank offers attractive valuation at a forward price-to-earnings of 15.3 times and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.59, with three of four recent earnings beats and rising earnings estimates, but revenue declined 32% year-over-year and the analyst target has been exceeded, leaving little room for near-term price appreciation.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.0 |
| ROA | 0.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.6 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 25%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
3.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 7.2 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -32%
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 1.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 2.6 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
- ▸Volume surge (2.4x avg) on selloff
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 4.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
2.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 2.5 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.7 |
| support resistance | 3.3 |
| 52w position | 9.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 8.5 |
| put call | 8.6 |
| implied vol | 5.3 |
| beta | 7.8 |
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.5 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:55d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-3.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-3.63
Upside
-20.4%
Downside
5.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 7.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-3.6=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -3.63 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.7, Value at 6.9, and Technical at 5.5; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.7, Growth at 3.6, and Quality at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -3.63 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation With Earnings Beat
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings rises above 20 times without a corresponding increase in earnings estimates, indicating the market is pricing in growth that has not been delivered.
- P2Revenue Decline Headwind
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below -10% year-over-year in any reported quarter, more than 10 percentage points worse than flat growth.
- P3Recent Earnings Momentum
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below -5% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, reversing the recent beat momentum.
- P4Elevated Put Call Caution
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio rises above 5.0, more than 30% above the current elevated 3.85 level, signaling accelerating institutional hedging.