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STXSeagate Technology Holdings PLCSell5.8·$995.94+6.97%
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Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Computer Hardware

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $995.94 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (-2.9% away).

Seagate Technology is a leading HDD and data storage manufacturer with principal products including nearline HDDs for hyperscale cloud, enterprise SSDs, storage subsystems, and the Lyve edge-to-cloud platform. Incorporated in Ireland and headquartered in Singapore; no single... Read more

$995.94+1.8% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#4 of 14 Computer Hardware
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield0.77%
IncomeYield0.32%(5y avg 3.02%)Payout27.70%sustainable
Stop $924.77Target $1011.87(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$885.91-11.0%22 analysts
$1011.87our TP
$995.94price
$885.91mean
$545
$1150

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $995.94 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (-2.9% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 43d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202643d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (-2.9% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.8): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)88.5
P/E (Fwd)34.6
Mkt Cap$208.8B
EV/EBITDA60.3
Profit Mgn21.6%
ROE1788.0%
Rev Growth44.1%
Beta2.08
Dividend0.32%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.84neutral
IV93%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-06Item 5.02LOW
    Director Michael R. Cannon notified Board he will not stand for re-election at 2026 AGM effective May 5, 2026. No disagreement with Company's operations, policies, or practices cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Pe
0.6
Analyst Target
3.0
Forward Pe
3.1
Peg Ratio
9.1
Forward P/E: 34.6xPEG: 0.64

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.2
Support Resistance
1.1
Gap
3.0
52w Position
9.3
Extreme gap up (10.9%) - may pull back

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.1
Growth Rank
4.0
Quality Rank
7.8
Superior ROE vs peers
GatesA.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 43d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $695.14Resistance $1032.52

Price Targets

$925
$1012
A.Upside+1.6%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-19.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (43d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $995.94 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (-2.9% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $924.77. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the STX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1011.87 (+1.8% upside). Prior stop was $924.77. Stop-loss: $924.77.

What are the risks of investing in STX?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (-2.9% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 3.8): -1.5.

Is STX overvalued or undervalued?

Seagate Technology Holdings PLC trades at a P/E of 88.5 (forward 34.6). TrendMatrix value score: 3.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about STX?

29 analysts cover STX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $886.

What does Seagate Technology Holdings PLC do?Seagate Technology is a leading HDD and data storage manufacturer with principal products including nearline HDDs for...

Seagate Technology is a leading HDD and data storage manufacturer with principal products including nearline HDDs for hyperscale cloud, enterprise SSDs, storage subsystems, and the Lyve edge-to-cloud platform. Incorporated in Ireland and headquartered in Singapore; no single customer exceeded 10% of net revenue in fiscal 2025.

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