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SSDSimpson Manufacturing Company, Buy Wait6.5·$193.78-0.76%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Simpson Manufacturing earns a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but the stock has already reached the analyst consensus price target and offers effectively no near-term upside at current prices.

Thesis pillars

  • Target Reached Limited UpsideStable
  • Piotroski Perfect Quality ScoreStable
  • North America Geographic ConcentrationStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Simpson Manufacturing Company, (SSD) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Lumber & Wood Production

Wait for pullback to $185.96. BUY gates pass at $193.78, but concentration risk — Geographic: North America segment (77.8%) and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $185.96 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

Simpson Manufacturing designs, engineers, and manufactures structural connectors, anchors, fasteners, and lateral-force resisting systems for wood and concrete construction. The North America segment contributed approximately 77.8% of 2025 net sales, with $619.0 million (roughly... Read more

$193.78-1.7% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#1 of 4 Lumber & Wood Production
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield5.58%
IncomeYield0.62%(5y avg 0.76%)Payout12.81%sustainable
Entry $185.96(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $173.52Target $205.13(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$219.00+13.0%5 analysts
$205.13our TP
$193.78price
$219.00mean
$230

Wait for pullback to $185.96. BUY gates pass at $193.78, but concentration risk — Geographic: North America segment (77.8%) and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $185.96 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 73d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Oct 26, 202673d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: North America segment (77.8%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.3
P/E (Fwd)20.1
Mkt Cap$8.0B
EV/EBITDA13.8
Profit Mgn15.6%
ROE18.7%
Rev Growth6.3%
Beta1.31
Dividend0.62%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.13bearish
IV49%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicNorth America segment78%
    10-K Item 1: 'the North America Segment accounting for approximately 77.8% of net sales for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025'
  • MEDIUMCustomerlargest customers
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our largest customers accounted for a significant portion of net sales for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 73d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $182.87Resistance $209.32

Price Targets

$174
$186
$205
A.Upside-1.7%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.7% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-26 (73d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SSD stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $185.96. BUY gates pass at $193.78, but concentration risk — Geographic: North America segment (77.8%) and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $185.96 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $205.13 (+5.9%), stop $173.52 (−11.7%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SSD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $205.13 (-1.7% upside). Target $205.13 (+5.9%), stop $173.52 (−11.7%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Stop-loss: $173.52.

What are the risks of investing in SSD?

Concentration risk — Geographic: North America segment (77.8%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is SSD overvalued or undervalued?

Simpson Manufacturing Company, trades at a P/E of 21.3 (forward 20.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about SSD?

10 analysts cover SSD with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $219.

What does Simpson Manufacturing Company, do?Simpson Manufacturing designs, engineers, and manufactures structural connectors, anchors, fasteners, and lateral-force...

Simpson Manufacturing designs, engineers, and manufactures structural connectors, anchors, fasteners, and lateral-force resisting systems for wood and concrete construction. The North America segment contributed approximately 77.8% of 2025 net sales, with $619.0 million (roughly 26.5%) from international markets. Products reach builders through dealers, home centers, distributors, and contractors globally.

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