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SSDSimpson Manufacturing Company, Hold5.7·$200.72-1.33%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Simpson Manufacturing earns a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but the stock has already reached the analyst consensus price target and offers effectively no near-term upside at current prices.

Thesis pillars

  • Target Reached Limited UpsideStable
  • Piotroski Perfect Quality ScoreStable
  • North America Geographic ConcentrationStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Simpson Manufacturing Company, (SSD) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Lumber & Wood Production

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $200.72, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: North America segment (77.8%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Simpson Manufacturing designs, engineers, and manufactures structural connectors, anchors, fasteners, and lateral-force resisting systems for wood and concrete construction. The North America segment contributed approximately 77.8% of 2025 net sales, with $619.0 million (roughly... Read more

$200.72+4.1% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#1 of 4 Lumber & Wood Production
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield4.12%
IncomeYield0.60%(5y avg 0.76%)Payout13.62%sustainable
Stop $188.82Target $208.92(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$217.80+8.5%5 analysts
$208.92our TP
$200.72price
$217.80mean
$230

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $200.72, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: North America segment (77.8%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 23d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Jul 27, 202623d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: North America segment (77.8%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.6
P/E (Fwd)20.4
Mkt Cap$8.3B
EV/EBITDA15.2
Profit Mgn14.9%
ROE18.1%
Rev Growth9.1%
Beta1.30
Dividend0.60%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV42%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicNorth America segment78%
    10-K Item 1: 'the North America Segment accounting for approximately 77.8% of net sales for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025'
  • MEDIUMCustomerlargest customers
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our largest customers accounted for a significant portion of net sales for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 23d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $182.97Resistance $213.18

Price Targets

$189
$209
A.Upside+4.1%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.6% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-27 (23d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SSD stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $200.72, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: North America segment (77.8%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $208.92 (+4.1%), stop $188.82 (−6.3%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SSD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $208.92 (+4.1% upside). Target $208.92 (+4.1%), stop $188.82 (−6.3%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Stop-loss: $188.82.

What are the risks of investing in SSD?

Concentration risk — Geographic: North America segment (77.8%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is SSD overvalued or undervalued?

Simpson Manufacturing Company, trades at a P/E of 23.6 (forward 20.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about SSD?

9 analysts cover SSD with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $218.

What does Simpson Manufacturing Company, do?Simpson Manufacturing designs, engineers, and manufactures structural connectors, anchors, fasteners, and lateral-force...

Simpson Manufacturing designs, engineers, and manufactures structural connectors, anchors, fasteners, and lateral-force resisting systems for wood and concrete construction. The North America segment contributed approximately 77.8% of 2025 net sales, with $619.0 million (roughly 26.5%) from international markets. Products reach builders through dealers, home centers, distributors, and contractors globally.

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