Value
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.7 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.5 |
| PEG | 5.8 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.7x
- ▸PEG: 1.30
SSD · Why this verdict
Why Simpson Manufacturing Company, (SSD) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Simpson Manufacturing earns a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but the stock has already reached the analyst consensus price target and offers effectively no near-term upside at current prices.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The analyst consensus price target has been met and the stock now shows negative indicated upside of approximately 2%, meaning the near-term reward-to-risk ratio at current prices is deeply unfavorable at 0.18. Targets | Analyst price targets are upgraded to above $215, more than 10% above current price, within 12 months following positive earnings revisions. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWithout fresh catalysts or guidance upgrades, the stock may trade sideways or retrace to technical support levels, producing negative returns from current entry. | ||
Simpson Manufacturing scores a perfect 9 out of 9 on the Piotroski F-Score, reflecting strong profitability, leverage improvement, and operating efficiency across all nine criteria. Quality breakdown | The business sustains its Piotroski F-Score above 8/9 for the next four quarters, confirming structural quality is durable rather than cyclical. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh Piotroski scores are backward-looking and may not reflect upcoming housing-cycle headwinds that could pressure margins and cash flows in coming quarters. | ||
The North America segment generates approximately 77.8% of company revenue, concentrating earnings exposure to US residential and commercial construction activity. Bear case | International revenue grows faster than North American revenue, reducing the North America segment share below 75% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterUS construction activity is highly sensitive to mortgage rates and housing starts, and a prolonged rate-elevated environment could compress North American demand faster than international diversification offsets it. | ||
Simpson has beaten consensus EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 7.6%, including a 16.3% beat in the most recent quarter. Earnings | The company beats consensus EPS by at least 5% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters as product pricing and volume hold. | →Stable |
| CounterConsensus estimates may already incorporate the recent beat pattern, leaving less cushion and increasing the probability of an inline or miss result if construction demand softens. | ||
The analyst consensus price target has been met and the stock now shows negative indicated upside of approximately 2%, meaning the near-term reward-to-risk ratio at current prices is deeply unfavorable at 0.18.
↓DeterioratingTargets
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are upgraded to above $215, more than 10% above current price, within 12 months following positive earnings revisions.
CounterWithout fresh catalysts or guidance upgrades, the stock may trade sideways or retrace to technical support levels, producing negative returns from current entry.
Simpson Manufacturing scores a perfect 9 out of 9 on the Piotroski F-Score, reflecting strong profitability, leverage improvement, and operating efficiency across all nine criteria.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The business sustains its Piotroski F-Score above 8/9 for the next four quarters, confirming structural quality is durable rather than cyclical.
CounterHigh Piotroski scores are backward-looking and may not reflect upcoming housing-cycle headwinds that could pressure margins and cash flows in coming quarters.
The North America segment generates approximately 77.8% of company revenue, concentrating earnings exposure to US residential and commercial construction activity.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- International revenue grows faster than North American revenue, reducing the North America segment share below 75% over the next 12 months.
CounterUS construction activity is highly sensitive to mortgage rates and housing starts, and a prolonged rate-elevated environment could compress North American demand faster than international diversification offsets it.
Simpson has beaten consensus EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 7.6%, including a 16.3% beat in the most recent quarter.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats consensus EPS by at least 5% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters as product pricing and volume hold.
CounterConsensus estimates may already incorporate the recent beat pattern, leaving less cushion and increasing the probability of an inline or miss result if construction demand softens.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.0 |
| ROA | 6.5 |
| Gross margin | 5.1 |
| Op margin | 7.8 |
| Net margin | 7.5 |
| Current ratio | 9.6 |
| FCF quality | 6.8 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
4.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 5.0 |
Momentum
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
| erm sentiment | 6.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.7 |
| quality rank | 7.5 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
Technical
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.0 |
| support resistance | 6.1 |
| 52w position | 8.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 7.0 |
| volatility | 6.0 |
| put call | 7.2 |
| implied vol | 6.5 |
| beta | 5.8 |
| debt equity | 9.1 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 7.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.3 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 2 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.40
Upside
-2.3%
Downside
5.7%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Quality at 7.4 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.4, Insider at 7.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.1; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.8, Growth at 4.9, and Value at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.40 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Piotroski Perfect Quality Score
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 7 in any of the next 4 reporting periods, indicating meaningful quality deterioration.
- P2North America Geographic Concentration
Trip ifNorth America segment revenue declines by more than 5% year-over-year in any reported quarter over the next 12 months.
- P3Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -5% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the established beat pattern.
- P4Target Reached Limited Upside
Trip ifStock price drops below $178, more than 8% below the current $193.64, without analyst target upgrades within 30 days.