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SMWBSimilarweb Ltd.Sell5.3·$6.29+3.80%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Similarweb shows a technical recovery with notable insider buying and positive free cash flow despite GAAP losses, but margin compression and an already-reached price target temper the bullish case.

Thesis pillars

  • Fcf Positive Despite Gaap LossStable
  • Margin Compression Value Trap SignalDeteriorating
  • Overbought Momentum Technical RecoveryDeteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Similarweb Ltd. (SMWB) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.29: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 5.00; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Similarweb Ltd. provides digital data and analytics for power critical business decisions in the United States, Europe, the Asia Pacific, the United Kingdom, Israel, and internationally. The company offers web intelligence solutions for its customers to benchmark performance... Read more

$6.29-19.8% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#113 of 125 Software - Application
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield4.56%
Stop $5.85Target $7.39(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$5.80-7.8%5 analysts
$7.39our TP
$6.29price
$5.80mean
$5
$7

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.29: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 5.00; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 24d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-25

Recent Developments — Similarweb Ltd.

Generated 2026-07-25T11:07:04Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 18, 202624d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-19.8% upside)
Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)26.8
Mkt Cap$551M
EV/EBITDA-44.8
Profit Mgn-10.4%
ROE-134.1%
Rev Growth10.1%
Beta1.17
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C5.00bearish
IV144%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
1.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
5.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.8
Growth Rank
3.1
Value Rank
7.6

Unprofitable operations — net margin -10.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Current Ratio
2.9
Rule Of 40
3.0
Fcf Quality
5.2
Piotroski F
5.6
Moat
5.8
Gross Margin
10.0
FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 9%, FCF yield 4.6%)Rule of 40: 19 (fail)
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 24d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Speculative
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $5.07Resistance $7.54

Price Targets

$6
$7
A.Upside-19.8%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-19.8% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)
! momentum at 2.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-18 (24d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SMWB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.29: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 5.00; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $5.85. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SMWB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $7.39 (-19.8% upside). Prior stop was $5.85. Stop-loss: $5.85.

What are the risks of investing in SMWB?

Target reached (-19.8% upside); Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0).

Is SMWB overvalued or undervalued?

Similarweb Ltd. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 26.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SMWB?

14 analysts cover SMWB with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $6.

What does Similarweb Ltd. do?Similarweb Ltd. provides digital data and analytics for power critical business decisions in the United States, Europe,...

Similarweb Ltd. provides digital data and analytics for power critical business decisions in the United States, Europe, the Asia Pacific, the United Kingdom, Israel, and internationally. The company offers web intelligence solutions for its customers to benchmark performance against competitors, analyze trends in the market, conduct deeper research into specific companies, and analyze audience behavior; and solutions for its customers to understand their competitors' digital acquisition strategies on various marketing channel, and optimize their own strategies. It also provides app intelligence that allows its customers to identify trends and monitor usage and performance for mobile apps, as well as to benchmark performance against competitors across the funnel from app store downloads to usage and stickiness; sales intelligence solutions for its customers to access relevant buying signals and digital insights of their customers to generate leads quickly; and retail intelligence solutions to analyze a view of their customers' digital journeys, monitor consumer demand, increase brand visibility in the search process, and optimize category and product level conversion in the purchase process. In addition, the company offers stock intelligence solutions for its customers to access an end-to-end view of market, sector, or company performance to ideate and monitor investment opportunities; forecast market performance; and perform due diligence. Further, it provides data-as-a-service, bespoke data set, and advisory services. The company serves retail, consumer packaged goods, consumer finance, consultancies, marketing and advertising agencies, media and publishers, business-to-business software, payment processors, travel, and institutional investors, as well as luxury and premium consumer brands. Similarweb Ltd. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Givatayim, Israel.

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