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SMASmartStop Self Storage REIT, InSell5.4·$33.67+1.17%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

SmartStop Self Storage REIT leads its industrial REIT peer set on revenue growth and has an exceptional 890% free cash flow conversion rate, but price has reached analyst targets with negative upside, and a confirmed downtrend below the 200-day moving average constrains the near-term entry case.

Thesis pillars

  • Growth Leader In Storage ReitStable
  • Price At Analyst TargetStable
  • Downtrend Death Cross RecoveryStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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SmartStop Self Storage REIT, In (SMA) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Industrial

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $33.67 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Expensive valuation.

SmartStop Self Storage REIT owned 177 wholly-owned self storage properties with approximately 122,000 units and 13.9 million net rentable square feet across 19 states, DC, and Canada at December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from month-to-month unit rentals and fees from managing 273... Read more

$33.67-1.5% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#7 of 16 REIT - Industrial
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield6.20%
IncomeYield4.75%Payout500.00%
Stop $32.09Target $33.17(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$36.10+7.2%10 analysts
$33.17our TP
$33.67price
$36.10mean
$32
$40

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $33.67 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Expensive valuation. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About SmartStop Self Storage REIT, In

About SmartStop Self Storage REIT, In

SmartStop Self Storage REIT owned 177 operating properties comprising approximately 122,000 units and 13.9 million net rentable square feet across 19 states, the District of Columbia, and Canada at December 31, 2025 — ranked the 10th largest U.S. self storage operator by rentable square footage per the 2025 Inside Self Storage Top-Operators List. The company listed on the NYSE under ticker SMA on April 2, 2025, completing a 31,050,000-share underwritten offering at $30.00 per share and generating $931.5 million in gross proceeds.

SmartStop generates revenue from two segments: self storage operations (month-to-month unit rentals and ancillary income at wholly-owned properties) and the Managed Platform (asset management fees, property management fees, and fee income from three sponsored REITs plus the Third Party Platform). The October 2025 acquisition of Argus Professional Storage Management added contracts covering more than 221 properties and approximately 100,000 units across 27 states. In total at year-end 2025, the Managed Platform covered 273 externally operated properties comprising 140,000 units and 20.4 million rentable square feet. Month-to-month lease structures allow real-time rate adjustments; customer segments include residential users typically within a 3- to 5-mile radius, small commercial operators, military, and students.

Show full overview

SmartStop's 10-K identifies geographic concentration as a material risk, noting that a high concentration of properties in a particular geographic area magnifies the effects of downturns in that area. Canadian operations conducted through 10 operating properties and a joint venture with SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust add currency exposure: the company issued $500 million CAD in 3.91% unsecured notes maturing June 2028 and $200 million CAD in 3.89% notes maturing September 2030, both denominated in Canadian dollars and subject to CAD/USD exchange rate fluctuations that could adversely affect operating results.

See also: Real Estate · REIT - Industrial

From SmartStop Self Storage REIT, In's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202632d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Expensive valuation

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)105.2
P/E (Fwd)62.4
Mkt Cap$1.9B
EV/EBITDA22.7
Profit Mgn4.7%
ROE1.5%
Rev Growth13.1%
Beta
Dividend4.75%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV45%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.5
Bollinger
0.6
Gap
5.0
52w Position
7.6

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Analyst Target
4.0
Ps
5.7
P Ocf
5.9
P/OCF: 18.9x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 32d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $30.26Resistance $33.85

Price Targets

$32
$33
A.Upside-1.5%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (32d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SMA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $33.67 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Expensive valuation. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $32.09. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SMA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $33.17 (-1.5% upside). Prior stop was $32.09. Stop-loss: $32.09.

What are the risks of investing in SMA?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation.

Is SMA overvalued or undervalued?

SmartStop Self Storage REIT, In trades at a P/E of 105.2 (forward 62.4). TrendMatrix value score: 3.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SMA?

14 analysts cover SMA with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $36.

What does SmartStop Self Storage REIT, In do?SmartStop Self Storage REIT owned 177 wholly-owned self storage properties with approximately 122,000 units and 13.9...

SmartStop Self Storage REIT owned 177 wholly-owned self storage properties with approximately 122,000 units and 13.9 million net rentable square feet across 19 states, DC, and Canada at December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from month-to-month unit rentals and fees from managing 273 additional properties through its Managed Platform. The company listed on the NYSE in April 2025, raising $931.5 million in gross proceeds.

Related stocks: FR (First Industrial Realty Trust, ) · TRNO (Terreno Realty Corporation) · NSA (National Storage Affiliates Tru) · EGP (EastGroup Properties, Inc.) · STAG (Stag Industrial, Inc.)
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