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First Industrial Realty Trust, (FR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Industrial

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $61.26, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.7% away).

First Industrial Realty Trust is an industrial REIT owning 414 properties (~69.9M sq ft GLA) across 19 US states, focused on 15 key logistics markets. Revenue is generated from net leases on industrial and warehouse properties, with California (Northern and Southern) and... Read more

$61.26+2.7% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#1 of 15 REIT - Industrial
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.84%
IncomeYield3.07%(5y avg 2.52%)Payout70.85%
Stop $59.64Target $63.33(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$67.00+9.4%15 analysts
$63.33our TP
$61.26price
$67.00mean
$74

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $61.26, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.7% away). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — First Industrial Realty Trust,

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.0 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.7% away)
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.8
P/E (Fwd)33.1
Mkt Cap$8.4B
EV/EBITDA21.2
Profit Mgn46.0%
ROE12.8%
Rev Growth10.0%
Beta1.08
Dividend3.07%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.40bearish
IV41%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia26%
    10-K Item 1A: 'operating properties located in California (Northern California and Southern California markets) and Pennsylvania, our two largest regions, represented 26.3% and 11.4%, respectively, of our consolidated net operating income'
  • LOWGeographicPennsylvania11%
    10-K Item 1A: 'operating properties located in California (Northern California and Southern California markets) and Pennsylvania, our two largest regions, represented 26.3% and 11.4%, respectively, of our consolidated net operating income'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-27Item 5.02LOW
    Board ratified 2026 Employee Bonus Plan criteria on March 25, 2026, based on NAREIT FFO per share, same-store NOI growth, and discretionary objectives. No officer departures reported.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-17Item 5.02LOW
    Frank E. Schmitz elected to Board effective June 1, 2026 to fill vacancy created by Board expansion from 6 to 7 members. Will serve until 2027 annual meeting.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Ps
2.5
Analyst Target
4.0
P Ocf
6.1
P/OCF: 18.3x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5A.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $60.25Resistance $64.62

Price Targets

$60
$63
A.Upside+3.4%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.2% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 4.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FR stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $61.26, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.7% away). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $63.33 (+3.4%), stop $59.64 (−2.7%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $63.33 (+2.7% upside). Target $63.33 (+3.4%), stop $59.64 (−2.7%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Stop-loss: $59.64.

What are the risks of investing in FR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.7% away); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Is FR overvalued or undervalued?

First Industrial Realty Trust, trades at a P/E of 23.8 (forward 33.1). TrendMatrix value score: 3.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about FR?

25 analysts cover FR with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $67.

What does First Industrial Realty Trust, do?First Industrial Realty Trust is an industrial REIT owning 414 properties (~69.9M sq ft GLA) across 19 US states,...

First Industrial Realty Trust is an industrial REIT owning 414 properties (~69.9M sq ft GLA) across 19 US states, focused on 15 key logistics markets. Revenue is generated from net leases on industrial and warehouse properties, with California (Northern and Southern) and Pennsylvania as the two largest geographic concentrations.

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