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First Industrial Realty Trust, (FR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Industrial

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $62.01, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.1% away).

First Industrial Realty Trust is a self-administered industrial REIT with 414 in-service properties totaling approximately 69.9 million square feet of GLA in 19 states, focused on 15 key U.S. logistics markets as of December 31, 2025. Revenue is generated from long-term... Read more

$62.01+2.2% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#2 of 15 REIT - Industrial
Stop $59.27Target $63.37(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$66.93+7.9%15 analysts
$63.37our TP
$62.01price
$66.93mean
$74

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $62.01, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.1% away). Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.1% away)
Expensive valuation

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.7
P/E (Fwd)33.1
Mkt Cap$8.4B
EV/EBITDA21.1
Profit Mgn46.0%
ROE12.8%
Rev Growth10.0%
Beta1.13
Dividend3.26%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

IV55%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia26%
    10-K Item 1A: 'operating properties located in California ... represented 26.3% ... of our consolidated net operating income for the year ended December 31, 2025'
  • LOWGeographicPennsylvania11%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Pennsylvania ... 11.4%, respectively, of our consolidated net operating income for the year ended December 31, 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-27Item 5.02LOW
    Board ratified 2026 Employee Bonus Plan criteria on March 25, 2026, establishing incentive pool for eligible employees including CEO and senior executive officers based on FFO per share, SS NOI growth, and discretionary objectives.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-17Item 5.02LOW
    Frank E. Schmitz elected to First Industrial Realty Trust Board effective June 1, 2026, filling vacancy created by Board expansion from six to seven members. Will serve until the 2027 annual meeting.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Ps
2.6
Analyst Target
4.0
P Ocf
6.1
P/OCF: 18.2x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.4>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $57.78Resistance $64.66

Price Targets

$59
$63
A.Upside+2.2%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.9% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FR stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $62.01, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.1% away). Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $63.37 (+2.2%), stop $59.27 (−4.6%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $63.37 (+2.2% upside). Target $63.37 (+2.2%), stop $59.27 (−4.6%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Stop-loss: $59.27.

What are the risks of investing in FR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.1% away); Expensive valuation.

Is FR overvalued or undervalued?

First Industrial Realty Trust, trades at a P/E of 23.7 (forward 33.1). TrendMatrix value score: 3.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about FR?

25 analysts cover FR with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $67.

What does First Industrial Realty Trust, do?First Industrial Realty Trust is a self-administered industrial REIT with 414 in-service properties totaling...

First Industrial Realty Trust is a self-administered industrial REIT with 414 in-service properties totaling approximately 69.9 million square feet of GLA in 19 states, focused on 15 key U.S. logistics markets as of December 31, 2025. Revenue is generated from long-term industrial leases to commercial tenants. The REIT pursues internal growth through rent escalations and external growth through development and acquisition in logistics-constrained markets.

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