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Stag Industrial, Inc. (STAG) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Industrial

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $38.33 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties (100.0%).

STAG Industrial is a REIT focused on acquiring, owning, and operating single-tenant industrial properties across the United States. As of December 31, 2025, it owned 601 buildings in 41 states totaling ~120.0 million rentable square feet, with 96.4% occupancy. No single tenant... Read more

$38.33+2.3% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#10 of 15 REIT - Industrial
Stop $36.80Target $39.19(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$41.55+8.4%11 analysts
$39.19our TP
$38.33price
$41.55mean
$45

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $38.33 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties (100.0%). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties (100.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.2% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)29.5
P/E (Fwd)43.3
Mkt Cap$7.4B
EV/EBITDA16.7
Profit Mgn28.3%
ROE6.9%
Rev Growth9.1%
Beta1.04
Dividend4.07%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.70neutral
IV56%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHPropertyindustrial properties100%
    10-K Item 1A: 'As of December 31, 2025, all our buildings were industrial properties. This concentration exposes us to the risk of economic downturns in the industrial real estate sector'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.8
GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $35.95Resistance $39.99

Price Targets

$37
$39
A.Upside+2.2%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STAG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $38.33 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties (100.0%). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $36.80. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the STAG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.19 (+2.3% upside). Prior stop was $36.80. Stop-loss: $36.80.

What are the risks of investing in STAG?

Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties (100.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.2% away).

Is STAG overvalued or undervalued?

Stag Industrial, Inc. trades at a P/E of 29.5 (forward 43.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about STAG?

17 analysts cover STAG with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $42.

What does Stag Industrial, Inc. do?STAG Industrial is a REIT focused on acquiring, owning, and operating single-tenant industrial properties across the...

STAG Industrial is a REIT focused on acquiring, owning, and operating single-tenant industrial properties across the United States. As of December 31, 2025, it owned 601 buildings in 41 states totaling ~120.0 million rentable square feet, with 96.4% occupancy. No single tenant exceeds 2.8% of annualized base rental revenue.

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