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Stag Industrial, Inc. (STAG) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Industrial

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $38.19 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties (100.0%).

STAG Industrial is an industrial REIT with 601 buildings across 41 states (~120M sq ft), ~96.4% leased at year-end 2025. Revenue is base rent from single-tenant and multi-tenant industrial leases; no single tenant exceeded ~2.8% of annualized base rental revenue.

$38.19+2.6% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#11 of 15 REIT - Industrial
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield6.13%
IncomeYield4.06%(5y avg 4.04%)Payout116.67%
Stop $36.77Target $39.19(resistance)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst target$41.45+8.5%11 analysts
$39.19our TP
$38.19price
$41.45mean
$45

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $38.19 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties (100.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Stag Industrial, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.3 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties (100.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.5% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)29.6
P/E (Fwd)43.4
Mkt Cap$7.5B
EV/EBITDA16.8
Profit Mgn28.3%
ROE6.9%
Rev Growth9.1%
Beta1.01
Dividend4.06%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.38bullish
IV30%low

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHPropertyindustrial properties100%
    10-K Item 1A: 'As of December 31, 2025, all our buildings were industrial properties.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.8

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.4
Obv
1.0
Macd
1.6
Ma Position
6.0
Rsi
7.7
Uptrend pullback (RSI 38) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5A.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $37.46Resistance $39.99

Price Targets

$37
$39
A.Upside+2.6%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.6% upside)
! Momentum score 3.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STAG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $38.19 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties (100.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $36.77. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

What is the STAG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.19 (+2.6% upside). Prior stop was $36.77. Stop-loss: $36.77.

What are the risks of investing in STAG?

Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties (100.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.5% away).

Is STAG overvalued or undervalued?

Stag Industrial, Inc. trades at a P/E of 29.6 (forward 43.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about STAG?

17 analysts cover STAG with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $41.

What does Stag Industrial, Inc. do?STAG Industrial is an industrial REIT with 601 buildings across 41 states (~120M sq ft), ~96.4% leased at year-end...

STAG Industrial is an industrial REIT with 601 buildings across 41 states (~120M sq ft), ~96.4% leased at year-end 2025. Revenue is base rent from single-tenant and multi-tenant industrial leases; no single tenant exceeded ~2.8% of annualized base rental revenue.

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