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SKWDSkyward Specialty Insurance GroHold5.9·$60.46+3.09%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Skyward Specialty Insurance has delivered a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak with an average positive surprise of 15% and 45% revenue growth, trading at an attractive forward price-to-earnings ratio of 8.9x, but a free cash flow quality red flag and thin 7.1% upside to target limit the near-term conviction for additional positioning.

Thesis pillars

  • Perfect Earnings Beat With Strong GrowthImproving
  • Attractive Valuation At 9x ForwardStable
  • Free Cash Flow Quality Red FlagStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Skyward Specialty Insurance Gro (SKWD) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $60.46, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.1% away).

Skyward Specialty Insurance Group writes specialty commercial insurance across nine underwriting divisions on both E&S non-admitted (59% of 2025 gross written premium) and admitted (41%) bases, primarily in the United States. Products are distributed through independent retail... Read more

$60.46-6.2% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#18 of 39 Insurance - Property & Casualty
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield-10.68%
Stop $56.23Target $61.77(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$65.18+7.8%11 analysts
$61.77our TP
$60.46price
$65.18mean
$49
$80

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $60.46, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.1% away). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202610d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive insider activity
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.1% away)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.1
P/E (Fwd)11.0
Mkt Cap$2.5B
EV/EBITDA8.6
Profit Mgn11.4%
ROE17.1%
Rev Growth44.8%
Beta0.33
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV48%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 10d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Speculative
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $55.49Resistance $63.03

Price Targets

$56
$62
A.Upside-6.2%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.2% upside)
! momentum at 3.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (10d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SKWD stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $60.46, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.1% away). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $61.77 (+2.2%), stop $56.23 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SKWD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $61.77 (-6.2% upside). Target $61.77 (+2.2%), stop $56.23 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Stop-loss: $56.23.

What are the risks of investing in SKWD?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.1% away); Negative momentum.

Is SKWD overvalued or undervalued?

Skyward Specialty Insurance Gro trades at a P/E of 14.1 (forward 11.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about SKWD?

20 analysts cover SKWD with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $65.

What does Skyward Specialty Insurance Gro do?Skyward Specialty Insurance Group writes specialty commercial insurance across nine underwriting divisions on both E&S...

Skyward Specialty Insurance Group writes specialty commercial insurance across nine underwriting divisions on both E&S non-admitted (59% of 2025 gross written premium) and admitted (41%) bases, primarily in the United States. Products are distributed through independent retail agents, wholesale brokers, program administrators, and captive managers; the company completed its acquisition of Apollo Group Holdings, a Lloyd's of London specialty underwriting platform via Syndicates 1969 and 1971, on January 1, 2026.

Related stocks: SLDE (Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc.) · ASIC (Ategrity Specialty Insurance Co) · PLMR (Palomar Holdings, Inc.) · UFCS (United Fire Group, Inc) · HRTG (Heritage Insurance Holdings, In)
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