Sherwin-Williams demonstrates exceptional return on equity of 61% and has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but heavy debt leverage of 3.3x debt-to-equity, thin upside of only 4.8%, and a confirmed downtrend make the current risk-reward unattractive for new positions.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Return On Equity→Stable
- Consistent Earnings Beat Record→Stable
- Leverage Headwind Constrains Upside→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Sherwin-Williams Company (The) (SHW) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $352.48 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.3): -1.5.
Sherwin-Williams develops, manufactures, and sells paint, coatings, and related products through 4,853 Paint Stores Group stores (US/Canada/Caribbean), 307 Consumer Brands Group stores in Latin America, and 317 Performance Coatings Group branches worldwide, serving professional,... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $352.48 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.3): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 79. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 24d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Sherwin-Williams Company (The)
About Sherwin-Williams Company (The)
Sherwin-Williams operated 4,853 company-owned specialty paint stores under the Paint Stores Group in the United States, Canada, and the Caribbean, plus 307 Latin America stores under the Consumer Brands Group and 317 Performance Coatings Group branches worldwide at December 31, 2025. Foreign subsidiary net sales represented approximately 19.6% of total consolidated net sales in 2025, consistent with the prior two years. In October 2025, the company acquired Suvinil, Brazil's architectural paint brand with annual sales of approximately $525 million, expanding the Consumer Brands Group's Latin American footprint.
Revenue flows through three segments: the Paint Stores Group earns from professional paint contractors and do-it-yourself homeowners through company-owned stores; the Consumer Brands Group manufactures branded and private-label products for home centers and hardware retailers, with approximately 63% of the segment's 2025 sales representing intersegment transfers to the Paint Stores Group; and the Performance Coatings Group sells industrial coatings for wood finishing, automotive refinish, marine, coil, and packaging applications through 317 owned branches and a direct sales force. Raw materials — primarily petrochemical-derived resins, solvents, titanium dioxide, and additives — are derived in significant part from upstream petrochemical feedstocks, notably propylene; most are sourced regionally, though in some cases limited or single-source supply exists. No individual customer accounted for more than 10% of 2025 consolidated net sales.
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Propylene and ethylene-derived petrochemical feedstocks represent the largest variable cost driver; after two years of elevated inflation, such prices declined in 2023 and 2024, then remained flat in 2025. The 10-K notes that in some cases the company relies on limited or single-source suppliers for certain raw materials — a structural input risk for a Paint Stores Group that sources finished product from the Consumer Brands Group. Trade policy volatility, including tariffs affecting chemical imports and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has periodically disrupted shipping in the Red Sea and Black Sea, may affect future feedstock costs in ways the company cannot fully offset through alternative sourcing in the near term.
See also: Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals
From Sherwin-Williams Company (The)'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Sherwin-Williams Company (The)
Latest news
- NEWS Sherwin-Williams Declares Dividend of $0.80 per Common Share - PR Newswire — PR Newswire positive
- NEWS Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) – Downgrade, Insider Selling Trigger Reassessment of Quality Investment Thesis - Expansio — Cổng thông tin điện tử Tỉnh Sơn La negative
- NEWS The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) - Pre-Earnings Analysis: Modest Growth Expected, Low Probability of Positive EPS Surp — UBND thành phố Hải Phòng neutral
- NEWS Wells Fargo Adjusts Sherwin-Williams (SHW) Outlook to Equal Weight - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Sherwin-Williams (NYSE:SHW) Price Target Cut to $365.00 by Analysts at Bank of America - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
Generated 2026-07-06T05:40:27Z.
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Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
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Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $352.48 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.3): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 79. Prior stop was $334.20. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $405.35 (+15.0% upside). Prior stop was $334.20. Stop-loss: $334.20.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.3): -1.5; Weak growth.
Sherwin-Williams Company (The) trades at a P/E of 33.9 (forward 26.6). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
28 analysts cover SHW with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $374.
What does Sherwin-Williams Company (The) do?Sherwin-Williams develops, manufactures, and sells paint, coatings, and related products through 4,853 Paint Stores...
Sherwin-Williams develops, manufactures, and sells paint, coatings, and related products through 4,853 Paint Stores Group stores (US/Canada/Caribbean), 307 Consumer Brands Group stores in Latin America, and 317 Performance Coatings Group branches worldwide, serving professional, industrial, commercial, and retail customers. The company employed 64,249 people worldwide at December 31, 2025, with no single customer exceeding 10% of 2025 sales.