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LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellHigh Confidence

Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $73.01: Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

LyondellBasell Industries N.V. operates as a chemical company in the United States, Germany, China, Mexico, Italy, Japan, France, Poland, the Netherlands, and internationally. It operates in five segments: Olefins and Polyolefins—Americas; Olefins and Polyolefins—Europe, Asia,... Read more

$73.01+5.2% A.UpsideScore 3.5/10#36 of 36 Specialty Chemicals
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield4.19%
IncomeYield6.57%(5y avg 6.19%)Payout1146.81%at-risk
Stop $67.93Target $76.86(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$79.94+9.5%17 analysts
$76.86our TP
$73.01price
$79.94mean
$63
$95

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $73.01: Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 3.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val6.1Qual1.9Grw0.5Mom2.6Sent5.3Ins3.4Peer2.6Tech5.9Risk7.03.5OVERALL

Recent Developments — LyondellBasell Industries NV

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-1.5% upside)
Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)9.7
Mkt Cap$23.6B
EV/EBITDA15.9
Profit Mgn-2.7%
ROE-6.0%
Rev Growth-6.3%
Beta0.35
Dividend6.57%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.43bullish
IV50%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicEurope
    10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our revenues are derived from our business in Europe'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -6.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
0.9
Declining revenue: -6%

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
1.2
Operating Margin
1.4
Moat
2.5
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
5.6
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.1
Obv
1.0
Macd
2.6
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.3
Quality Rank
1.7
Value Rank
8.6

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.8
Earnings Timing
5.0
Erm
6.5
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5A.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
49 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $69.13Resistance $78.43

Price Targets

$68
$77
A.Upside+5.3%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.5% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-31 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LYB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $73.01: Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $67.93. Score 3.5/10, high confidence.

What is the LYB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $76.86 (+5.2% upside). Prior stop was $67.93. Stop-loss: $67.93.

What are the risks of investing in LYB?

Target reached (-1.5% upside); Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0).

Is LYB overvalued or undervalued?

LyondellBasell Industries NV trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LYB?

25 analysts cover LYB with a consensus score of 3.2/5. Average price target: $80.

What does LyondellBasell Industries NV do?LyondellBasell Industries N.V. operates as a chemical company in the United States, Germany, China, Mexico, Italy,...

LyondellBasell Industries N.V. operates as a chemical company in the United States, Germany, China, Mexico, Italy, Japan, France, Poland, the Netherlands, and internationally. It operates in five segments: Olefins and Polyolefins—Americas; Olefins and Polyolefins—Europe, Asia, International; Intermediates and Derivatives; Advanced Polymer Solutions; and Technology. The company produces and markets olefins and co-products, such as ethylene, aromatics, propylene and butadiene; polyolefins; polyethylene; polypropylene homopolymers and copolymers; propylene oxide and derivatives; oxyfuels and related products; and intermediate chemicals, such as styrene monomer and acetyls. It also produces and markets compounding and solutions, including polypropylene compounds, engineered plastics, masterbatches, and engineered composites and colors. In addition, it develops and licenses chemical and polyolefin process technologies; and manufactures and sells polyolefin catalysts and serves food packaging, home furnishings, automotive components, and paints and coatings applications. LyondellBasell Industries N.V. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

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