A forward multiple of 8.4x and roughly 14% upside to the analyst target create an apparently favorable risk/reward geometry, but below-threshold business quality, a 6% revenue decline, and an erratic earnings record make the setup uninvestable until the cyclical trough is confirmed and fundamental quality recovers.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Below Investable Floor↑Improving
- Revenue Declining Six Percent→Stable
- Erratic Earnings Delivery↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026· older than 90 days
LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $66.09 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. operates as a chemical company in the United States, Germany, China, Mexico, Italy, Japan, France, Poland, the Netherlands, and internationally. It operates in five segments: Olefins and PolyolefinsAmericas; Olefins and PolyolefinsEurope, Asia,... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $66.09 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.40, news boost analyst cluster(3), earnings proximity 86d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated Nov 3, 2026Recent Developments — LyondellBasell Industries NV
Latest news
- NEWS Citigroup Maintains Neutral on LyondellBasell Industries, Raises Price Target to $74 — benzinga Nov 3, 2026 positive
- NEWS UBS Adjusts Price Target on LyondellBasell Industries to $69 From $62 — fiscal.ai Nov 3, 2026 positive
- NEWS UBS Maintains Neutral on LyondellBasell Industries, Raises Price Target to $69 — benzinga Nov 3, 2026 positive
- NEWS Deutsche Bank Adjusts LyondellBasell Industries Price Target — fiscal.ai Nov 3, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Analysts Adjust Price Targets for LyondellBasell — fiscal.ai Nov 2, 2026 neutral
Latest item Nov 3, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:44:36Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicEurope10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our revenues are derived from our business in Europe'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-22Item 5.02LOWOn May 22, 2026, LyondellBasell shareholders at annual general meeting approved amendment and restatement of the Long Term Incentive Plan. Filing describes compensatory arrangement update; no director or officer departure cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $66.09 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $61.59. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $65.05 reached (−1.6% from $66.09); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $61.59. Stop-loss: $61.59.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.
LyondellBasell Industries NV trades at a P/E of 16.0 (forward 10.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
27 analysts rate LYB, with a consensus score of 3.3/5. 18 analysts publish price targets averaging $72.
What does LyondellBasell Industries NV do?LyondellBasell Industries N.V. operates as a chemical company in the United States, Germany, China, Mexico, Italy,...
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. operates as a chemical company in the United States, Germany, China, Mexico, Italy, Japan, France, Poland, the Netherlands, and internationally. It operates in five segments: Olefins and PolyolefinsAmericas; Olefins and PolyolefinsEurope, Asia, International; Intermediates and Derivatives; Advanced Polymer Solutions; and Technology. The company produces and markets olefins and co-products, such as ethylene, aromatics, propylene and butadiene; polyolefins; polyethylene; polypropylene homopolymers and copolymers; propylene oxide and derivatives; oxyfuels and related products; and intermediate chemicals, such as styrene monomer and acetyls. It also produces and markets compounding and solutions, including polypropylene compounds, engineered plastics, masterbatches, and engineered composites and colors. In addition, it develops and licenses chemical and polyolefin process technologies; and manufactures and sells polyolefin catalysts and serves food packaging, home furnishings, automotive components, and paints and coatings applications. LyondellBasell Industries N.V. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Rotterdam, the Netherlands.