Skip to main content

Sherwin-Williams Company (The) (SHW) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals

Sell if holding. At $322.50, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.4%; Concentration risk — Supplier: limited or single-sources of supply.

Sherwin-Williams develops, manufactures, and sells paint, coatings, and related products through three segments: Paint Stores Group (4,853 specialty stores in US/Canada/Caribbean), Consumer Brands Group, and Performance Coatings Group. Revenue comes from professional... Read more

$322.50+5.4% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#24 of 36 Specialty Chemicals
Stop $303.46Target $340.16(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$377.95+17.2%21 analysts
$340.16our TP
$322.50price
$377.95mean
$268
$420

Sell if holding. At $322.50, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.4%; Concentration risk — Supplier: limited or single-sources of supply. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: limited or single-sources of supply
Thin upside margin: 5.4%
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.3): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)30.5
P/E (Fwd)23.9
Mkt Cap$78.4B
EV/EBITDA20.3
Profit Mgn10.9%
ROE60.7%
Rev Growth6.8%
Beta1.27
Dividend1.01%
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C8.59bearish
IV39%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierlimited or single-sources of supply
    10-K Item 1A: 'in some cases we have limited or single-sources of supply'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
3.5
Revenue Growth
4.2
GatesMomentum 1.2<4.5A.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $310.61Resistance $350.59

Price Targets

$303
$340
A.Upside+5.5%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.9:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SHW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $322.50, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.4%; Concentration risk — Supplier: limited or single-sources of supply. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $303.46. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

What is the SHW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $340.16 (+5.4% upside). Prior stop was $303.46. Stop-loss: $303.46.

What are the risks of investing in SHW?

Concentration risk — Supplier: limited or single-sources of supply; Thin upside margin: 5.4%; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.3): -1.5.

Is SHW overvalued or undervalued?

Sherwin-Williams Company (The) trades at a P/E of 30.5 (forward 23.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SHW?

31 analysts cover SHW with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $378.

What does Sherwin-Williams Company (The) do?Sherwin-Williams develops, manufactures, and sells paint, coatings, and related products through three segments: Paint...

Sherwin-Williams develops, manufactures, and sells paint, coatings, and related products through three segments: Paint Stores Group (4,853 specialty stores in US/Canada/Caribbean), Consumer Brands Group, and Performance Coatings Group. Revenue comes from professional contractors, DIY consumers, and industrial customers globally. Foreign subsidiaries contributed ~19.6% of net sales in 2025.

Related stocks: ESI (Element Solutions Inc.) · SQM (Sociedad Quimica y Minera S.A.) · RPM (RPM International Inc.) · DD (DuPont de Nemours, Inc.) · PPG (PPG Industries, Inc.)