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Sherwin-Williams Company (The) (SHW) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $303.00 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.3): -1.5; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Sherwin-Williams manufactures and sells paint, coatings, and related products through its Paint Stores Group (4,853 company-operated stores), Consumer Brands Group, and Performance Coatings Group, serving customers in 120+ countries. Foreign subsidiaries contributed ~19.6% of... Read more

$303.00+13.4% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#24 of 36 Specialty Chemicals
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.87%
IncomeYield1.06%(5y avg 0.87%)Payout30.45%sustainable
Stop $291.05Target $343.31(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.5:1
Analyst target$381.45+25.9%20 analysts
$343.31our TP
$303.00price
$381.45mean
$420

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $303.00 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.3): -1.5; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 62d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Sherwin-Williams Company (The)

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.3): -1.5
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)29.1
P/E (Fwd)22.8
Mkt Cap$74.7B
EV/EBITDA19.4
Profit Mgn10.9%
ROE60.7%
Rev Growth6.8%
Beta1.16
Dividend1.06%
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.76neutral
IV34%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Volume
2.9
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
3.5
Revenue Growth
4.2
GatesMomentum 1.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 62d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $300.05Resistance $345.40

Price Targets

$291
$343
A.Upside+13.3%
A.R:R2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (62d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SHW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $303.00 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.3): -1.5; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $291.05. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the SHW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $343.31 (+13.4% upside). Prior stop was $291.05. Stop-loss: $291.05.

What are the risks of investing in SHW?

Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.3): -1.5; Weak growth.

Is SHW overvalued or undervalued?

Sherwin-Williams Company (The) trades at a P/E of 29.1 (forward 22.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SHW?

31 analysts cover SHW with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $381.

What does Sherwin-Williams Company (The) do?Sherwin-Williams manufactures and sells paint, coatings, and related products through its Paint Stores Group (4,853...

Sherwin-Williams manufactures and sells paint, coatings, and related products through its Paint Stores Group (4,853 company-operated stores), Consumer Brands Group, and Performance Coatings Group, serving customers in 120+ countries. Foreign subsidiaries contributed ~19.6% of consolidated net sales in 2025; no individual customer exceeded 10% of sales. In Oct 2025, the company completed the ~$525M acquisition of Suvinil in Brazil.

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