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SGRYSurgery Partners, Inc.Sell4.9·$15.36+0.33%
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Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.36: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 21%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.86; Below-average business quality.

Surgery Partners operates 176 surgical facilities (157 ASCs and 19 surgical hospitals) in 30 states, generating ~$3.2B in patient service revenue in 2025 from non-emergency outpatient procedures across orthopedics, ophthalmology, GI, and general surgery. Revenue is collected... Read more

$15.36+1.6% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#21 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield9.94%
Stop $14.43Target $15.62(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$17.95+16.9%11 analysts
$15.62our TP
$15.36price
$17.95mean
$14
$24

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.36: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 21%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.86; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 79. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15

Recent Developments — Surgery Partners, Inc.

Generated 2026-06-15T15:36:54Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: private insurance payors (52.0%)
Target reached (1.6% upside)
Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)23.4
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA11.7
Profit Mgn-2.3%
ROE2.7%
Rev Growth4.5%
Beta1.95
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.86bearish
IV94%elevated
Max Pain$35+127.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomergovernment payors (Medicare and Medicaid)43%
    10-K Item 1A: 'We derived approximately 43%, 41% and 42% of our revenue from government payors, including Medicare and Medicaid programs in 2025'
  • HIGHCustomerprivate insurance payors52%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Payments from private insurance payors, including state workers' compensation programs and managed care organizations, represented approximately 52%, 54% and 53% of our patient service revenue in 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.4
52w Position
2.7

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M

Risk profile below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Short Interest
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Put Call
1.0
Days To Cover
2.2
Beta
3.5
Debt Equity
4.7
Volatility
4.9
Max Pain Risk
7.0
High short interest: 21%Elevated put/call: 1.86High IV: 94%Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Unprofitable operations — net margin -2.3%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Net Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
0.6
Roe
0.9
Roa
2.5
Moat
3.8
Operating Margin
4.1
Current Ratio
6.6
Piotroski F
6.7
No competitive moat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.0
Growth Rank
3.7
Value Rank
7.8
GatesA.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
79 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $13.09Resistance $15.47

Price Targets

$14
$16
A.Upside+1.7%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.6% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 0.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SGRY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.36: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 21%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.86; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 79. Prior stop was $14.43. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SGRY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.62 (+1.6% upside). Prior stop was $14.43. Stop-loss: $14.43.

What are the risks of investing in SGRY?

Concentration risk — Customer: private insurance payors (52.0%); Target reached (1.6% upside); Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0).

Is SGRY overvalued or undervalued?

Surgery Partners, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 23.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SGRY?

18 analysts cover SGRY with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $18.

What does Surgery Partners, Inc. do?Surgery Partners operates 176 surgical facilities (157 ASCs and 19 surgical hospitals) in 30 states, generating ~$3.2B...

Surgery Partners operates 176 surgical facilities (157 ASCs and 19 surgical hospitals) in 30 states, generating ~$3.2B in patient service revenue in 2025 from non-emergency outpatient procedures across orthopedics, ophthalmology, GI, and general surgery. Revenue is collected from private insurance (52%) and government payors including Medicare and Medicaid (43%).

Related stocks: THC (Tenet Healthcare Corporation) · AVAH (Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc) · ASTH (Astrana Health Inc.) · UHS (Universal Health Services, Inc.) · ARDT (Ardent Health, Inc.)
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