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SGRYSurgery Partners, Inc.Sell5.6·$14.17+1.36%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Surgery Partners operates ambulatory surgery centers with 52% revenue concentration from private insurance payors and a quality score below minimum thresholds, making it a structurally risky holding despite positive short-term momentum and an attractive forward valuation.

Thesis pillars

  • Private Insurance Concentration Payor RiskImproving
  • Quality Below Minimum ThresholdImproving
  • High Short Interest Elevated Put CallImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.17: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 1.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Surgery Partners owns and operates 176 surgical facilities — 157 ambulatory surgery centers and 19 licensed surgical hospitals — across 30 U.S. states, generating approximately $3.2 billion in revenue in 2025. Facility fees from surgical procedures fund nearly all patient... Read more

$14.17+15.0% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#19 of 35 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield10.03%
Stop $13.18Target $16.29(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst target$18.73+32.2%11 analysts
$16.29our TP
$14.17price
$18.73mean
$24

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.17: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 1.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 66d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04

Recent Developments — Surgery Partners, Inc.

Generated 2026-09-04T02:12:10Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Nov 9, 202666d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: private insurance payors (52.0%)
Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)22.3
Mkt Cap$1.8B
EV/EBITDA11.5
Profit Mgn-2.6%
ROE2.3%
Rev Growth2.7%
Beta1.94
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.46bullish
IV67%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomergovernment payors43%
    10-K Item 1A: 'We derived approximately 43%, 41% and 42% of our revenue from government payors, including Medicare and Medicaid programs in 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'
  • HIGHCustomerprivate insurance payors52%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Payments from private insurance payors...represented approximately 52%...of our patient service revenue in 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Unprofitable operations — net margin -2.6%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Net Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
0.5
Roe
0.8
Roa
2.4
Moat
3.8
Operating Margin
5.5
Piotroski F
6.7
Current Ratio
6.8
No competitive moat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.6
Growth Rank
2.6
Value Rank
7.9
GatesMomentum 4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.5>=4.5A.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 66d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Speculative
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $13.18Resistance $16.46

Price Targets

$13
$16
A.Upside+15.0%
A.R:R1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-09 (66d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SGRY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.17: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 1.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $13.18. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SGRY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.29 (+15.0% upside). Prior stop was $13.18. Stop-loss: $13.18.

What are the risks of investing in SGRY?

Concentration risk — Customer: private insurance payors (52.0%); Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).

Is SGRY overvalued or undervalued?

Surgery Partners, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 22.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SGRY?

18 analysts cover SGRY with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Surgery Partners, Inc. do?Surgery Partners owns and operates 176 surgical facilities — 157 ambulatory surgery centers and 19 licensed surgical...

Surgery Partners owns and operates 176 surgical facilities — 157 ambulatory surgery centers and 19 licensed surgical hospitals — across 30 U.S. states, generating approximately $3.2 billion in revenue in 2025. Facility fees from surgical procedures fund nearly all patient service revenue, split 52.3% from private insurance and 42.8% from government payors (Medicare/Medicaid).

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